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Morning Report - 7 April 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Shire 4258 209.0 5.2 -9.4
AstraZeneca 4127.5 176.5 4.5 -10.6
Prudential 1310.5 42.5 3.4 -14.4
Next 5410 160.0 3.1 -25.8
GlaxoSmithKline 1461.5 42.5 3.0 6.5
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
easyJet 1476 -46.0 -3.0 -15.2
International Consolidated Airlines 535 -14.0 -2.6 -12.4
Glencore 140.1 -1.8 -1.2 54.8
Whitbread 3809 -36.0 -0.9 -13.5
Royal Bank of Scotland 209 -1.6 -0.8 -30.8
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,161.6 70.4 1.16 -1.3
UK 16,866.0 140.5 0.84 -3.2
FR CAC 40 4,284.6 34.4 0.81 -7.6
DE DAX 30 9,624.5 61.2 0.64 -10.4
US DJ Industrial Average 30 17,603.3 -133.8 -0.75 1.0
US Nasdaq Composite 4,843.9 -47.9 -0.98 -3.3
US S&P 500 2,045.2 -21.0 -1.01 0.1
JP Nikkei 225 15,731.0 15.6 0.10 -17.4
HK Hang Seng Index 48 20,283.5 76.8 0.38 -7.4
AU S&P/ASX 200 4,961.9 16.0 0.32 -6.3
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 38.10 0.53 1.4 2.8
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 40.15 0.73 1.85 6.8
Gold ($/oz) 1230.15 6.55 0.54 16.0
Silver ($/oz) 15.13 0.09 0.58 9.5
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.42 0.33 -4.0
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.14 0.29 5.2
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.24 0.04 -8.7
UK 100 Index called to open +10pts at 6170

UK 100 Index: 1-month chart

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open +10pts at 6170, having extended the bounce from 6060 lows to 120pts/2% and 6180 overnight highs, taking us close to the ceiling of the 5-week sideways channel at 6200. The Bulls will be looking for further upside to get us up and out of the sideways shift. The bears are eyeing whether 1-week falling highs around 6190 have potential to cap gains and send us back south. Watch levels: Bullish 6200, Bearish 6155.

The positive opening call for Europe comes thanks to a jump in oil prices supporting the energy sector after US Crude inventories posted a welcome drawdown, while dovish-no-rush-to-hike Fed FOMC minutes have kept a lid on the US currency to the benefit of dollar-denominated commodities.

After healthy gains by stateside bourses last night we are seeing a largely positive session in Asia thanks to a buoyant energy sector, although gains are muted by continued currency strength derived from a weaker USD, notably the Yen which is holding back Japan’s export-heavy Nikkei. The same is true of stocks down under with Australia’s ASX in the green, led by energy, but gains muted by a stronger Aussie dollar.

Oil prices benefiting from a not wholly surprising drawdown in US DoE/EIA Crude stockpiles. Not if you listen out for API data which comes out the evening before. This coupled with a weaker USD after the Fed FOMC minutes and rising hope that the 17 April Doha meeting will lead to an OPEC-led production freeze is seeing Brent back at $40 and US Crude at $38. We remain highly sceptical of a Doha deal with or without Iran on-board, given its aim is to keep raising production following the lifting of sanctions. .

Gold has recovered from its lows back to test $1230 and 3-week falling highs thanks to the weaker USD, although its gains are a little at odds with the increase in weak dollar-inspired risk appetite overnight. Could rising lows mean a breakout is on the cards or are we just narrowing into the apex of a bearish descending triangle?

In focus today, we have another light data calendar, with just UK Labor Costs this morning and US Jobless claims this afternoon. What we aren’t short of is speakers with the ECB’s Constancio talking at the European market open before the European Central Bank’s own minutes this afternoon.

Thereafter listen out for the IMF Economic outlook (good? bad? ugly?) this afternoon and those holding overnight positions would do well to take into account Fed Chair Yellen speaking late tonight with predecessors Bernanke and Greenspan.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

 

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Victoria Oil & Gas Secures Approval for 75% interest in Matanda Block
  • New Marks & Spencer boss starts with familiar sales decline
  • Marks & Spencer Warns on Profit Despite Fourth-Quarter Sales
  • OCBC Signs Deal to Buy Barclay's Wealth Management Unit in Singapore, HK
  • Dunelm says Q3 revenue +5.9%
  • FirstGroup: 4Q Results In Line with Management Views
  • Go-Ahead shortlisted for West Midlands franchise
  • Bain, Advent funds sell 275m shares in Worldpay raising about £740 bookrunner
  • Centamin Q1 gold production rises, maintains full – year outlook
  • 3i Infrastructure invests £75m in WIG
  • FirstGroup says Q4 trading in line with expectations
  • Modwen Properties appoints Mark Allan as CEO
  • Unite names Smith as CEO
  • Flybe sees FY results in line with expectations
  • London copper steadies on weaker dollar
  • Oil futures rise but traders warn on premature rally

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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