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Morning Report - 6 June 2014

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Meggitt PLC 517.5 23.4 4.7 -1.9
Smith & Nephew PLC 1088 24.0 2.3 26.4
Ashtead Group PLC 917 17.0 1.9 20.7
United Utilities Group PLC 883 15.0 1.7 31.5
CRH PLC 1685 28.0 1.7 10.6
Old Mutual PLC 202.1 2.9 1.5 6.9
Aberdeen Asset Management PLC 446 6.3 1.4 -10.8
BG Group PLC 1240 17.0 1.4 -4.4
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Persimmon PLC 1262 -70.0 -5.3 1.9
Royal Mail Group PLC 498 -16.5 -3.2 -12.6
Burberry Group PLC 1495 -39.0 -2.5 -1.4
ARM Holdings PLC 894 -21.0 -2.3 -18.7
Rexam PLC 532.5 -10.5 -1.9 -10.8
Imperial Tobacco Group PLC 2641 -41.0 -1.5 13.0
Petrofac Ltd 1232 -19.0 -1.5 0.7
TUI Travel PLC 404 -5.8 -1.4 -2.2
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,813.49 -5.14 -0.08 0.95
UK 15,995.50 9.03 0.06 0.38
FR CAC 40 4,548.73 47.73 1.06 5.88
DE DAX 30 9,947.83 21.16 0.21 4.14
US DJ Industrial Average 30 16,836.00 98.57 0.59 1.57
US Nasdaq Composite 100 4,296.23 44.59 1.05 2.86
US S&P 500 1,940.46 12.58 0.65 4.98
JP Nikkei 225 15,098.72 19.35 0.13 -7.32
HK Hang Seng Index 48 23,054.68 -54.98 -0.24 -1.08
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,465.30 28.42 0.52 2.11
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 102.535 0.155 0.15 3.7285
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 108.895 0.52 0.48 -2.1621
Gold ($/oz) 1255.75 2.85 0.23 3.9924
Silver ($/oz) 19.0875 0.0475 0.25 -1.982
Platinum ($/oz) 1454.6 11.5 0.8 5.0215
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.6814 0.04 1.5529
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.366 -0.01 -0.6184
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.231 0.06 2.0488
UK 100 called to open +10pts at 6820

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Today's Main Events

  • 13:30     US          Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment rate

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open +10pts at 6820 after a positive close and decent gains in the US (more record highs posted by DJIA and S&P) following the ECB policy announcement and despite an indifferent response from Asia ahead of the US jobs report this afternoon. Note German’s DAX testing the 10,000 level.

The ECB delivered a host of stimulatory measures to counter rising Eurozone deflation risks (rate cuts, LTRO, negative deposit rates). Some were disappointed by a lack of QE, but Draghi did say preparations for ABS purchases had begun, interest rates will stay low for long (possibly longer than previously foreseen) and, more importantly, the ECB is not finished with easing and will do more if required.

Sentiment was also boosted stateside and overnight by renowned hedge fund manager David Tepper saying his market concerns had now alleviated and the Fed’s Kocherlakota arguing for real interest rates staying low for the next five years, even if peer Williams said there was a real cost to using monetary policy to address financial stability.

Overnight in Asia, stocks not reacting as positively, as traders move their focus from one risk event to another, digesting the ECB decision and prepping themselves for the next key risk events - US Non-Farm Payrolls this afternoon and China’s trade balance numbers over the weekend.

 Note the World Bank seeing signs of improvement in China, and forecasts GDP growth of 7.6% in 2014 and 7.5% next year and the Chinese regulator CBRC said it was considering loosening the 75% loan-to-deposit ratio.

The UK index tested support at round number 6800 several times yesterday before recovering to 6830 overnight, however, resistance at the 6850 ECB-spike highs keeps it in the downtrend from 29 May, meaning potential for a revisit of 6770.  A break above 6850 would open the door for a recovery to recent 6883 highs.

In focus today will be the US Jobs Report with expectations for 210K to have been added in May, this is far less than last month’s 288K but remains above the 12-month average of 197K and would be at odds with Wednesday’s ADP miss of 180K. The unemployment rate is seen rising a notch to 6.4% after hitting a low of 6.3% last month (from 6.7%) and getting markets spooked about early rate rises.

In commodities, Gold gas been boosted by the ECB stimulus announcement moving up off its recent lows of $1245/oz, to touch $1256 and by safehaven demand ahead of the US jobs report this afternoon following the ADP disappointment on Wednesday.

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Key Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • AU          AIG Construction Perf                    Improved
  • JP           Sentiment Indices                           Beat, mixed
  • DE                           Industrial production                      Miss, mixed

See Live Macro calendar for full details

 

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

•             Telecom Plus finance director to step down in October

•             British telecoms group KCom's profit falls marginally

•             Ultra Electronics wins $19 mln contract with U.S. Navy

•             Pubs operator Fuller's full-year profit rises about 10 pct

•             GW Pharmaceuticals announces fast track designation from US FDA for Epidiolex 


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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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