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| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Anglo American PLC | 328.3 | 54.6 | 20.0 | 9.6 |
| Glencore PLC | 99.68 | 13.7 | 16.0 | 10.2 |
| Antofagasta PLC | 430.3 | 54.7 | 14.6 | -8.3 |
| BHP Billiton PLC | 712.6 | 69.4 | 10.8 | -6.2 |
| Rio Tinto PLC | 1858 | 173.0 | 10.3 | -6.1 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| AstraZeneca PLC | 4143 | -269.0 | -6.1 | -10.3 |
| Coca-Cola HBC AG | 1322 | -78.0 | -5.6 | -8.7 |
| Imperial Tobacco Group PLC | 3598.5 | -130.0 | -3.5 | 0.3 |
| Johnson Matthey PLC | 2343 | -64.0 | -2.7 | -16.7 |
| Diageo PLC | 1828 | -41.5 | -2.2 | -1.5 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 5,898.8 | 61.6 | 1.06 | -5.5 |
| UK | 16,086.7 | 94.3 | 0.59 | -7.7 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,228.5 | 1.6 | 0.04 | -8.8 |
| DE DAX 30 | 9,393.4 | -41.5 | -0.44 | -12.6 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 16,416.5 | 79.8 | 0.49 | -5.8 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 4,509.6 | 5.3 | 0.12 | -9.9 |
| US S&P 500 | 1,915.5 | 2.9 | 0.15 | -6.3 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 16,819.6 | -225.4 | -1.32 | -11.6 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 48 | 19,303.7 | 120.6 | 0.63 | -11.9 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 4,976.2 | -4.2 | -0.08 | -6.0 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 31.66 | -0.62 | -1.91 | -14.6 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 34.27 | -0.49 | -1.41 | -8.8 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1155.05 | -0.95 | -0.08 | 8.9 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 14.85 | -0.04 | -0.25 | 7.4 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.46 | – | -0.13 | -1.2 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.12 | – | -0.02 | 3.1 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.30 | – | -0.12 | -4.2 |
Click graph to enlarge
UK 100 Index called to open flat at 5900, having traded sideways overnight in one of the tightest trading ranges we have seen for a while. A welcome change some might say after volatility of late. The uptrend of rising lows from January’s 5600 base holds for now, but remains merely a bounce within the longer-term downtrend from May last year which requires a break of 6200 to overcome. Watch levels: Bullish 5960, Bearish 5860.
The neutral opening call comes after a mildly positive yet choppy US session ahead of today’s US jobs report with financials and resources-linked names benefiting from USD weakness as investors pare bets the Fed can raise rates in 2016 at all, and debate the US slipping back into recession. Asian bourses in the red, hindered by resulting regional FX strength and oil trickling back from recent highs on reports of the Obama (lame duck) administration proposing a $10/barrel oil tax.
Japan’s Nikkei underperforming again on the back of JPY strength (strongest week in 6 years) hurting exporter stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng posting small gains ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday while Australia's ASX break-even thanks to commodity prices and related equities holding their gains.
In focus today, amid all that USD weakness on debate about Fed rate hike ability, will be the US Jobs report even though it is highly likely to deliver another month of circa 200K net additions and the Unemployment rate holding lows of 5.0%. Because jobs are not the problem. Absent inflation is. Oh and the risk of the US slipping back into recession.
So while an NFP beat may deliver a knee-jerk negative reaction for equities, it will probably be short-lived. Any miss, however would add weight to dovish arguments about the Fed needing to hold off on more rate hikes on account of market volatility. Wage growth seen stronger for the month, but cooler annually.
After the Credit Suisse disappointment yesterday, note French bank BNP Paribas posting a 52% drop in quarterly profits this morning missing estimates and hurting from Italian exposure, while in troubled commodity world steel giant ArcelorMittal is raising $3bn via rights issue to reduce debt after a hefty net loss.
Crude prices back from recent $34-36/barrel highs after the sugar-rush boost from a weaker USD. Sector problems still rife, evident via BP and Shell results as well as those from US majors, all the while major producer nations slip ever closer to trouble, increasingly discussing need for financial aid. Still no closer to coordinated output cuts. Nobody prepared to give up ground after 70% price falls.
Gold’s breakout at $1147 has continued as far as $1157, the reversal gaining momentum on USD weakness and renewed interest in the yellow metal. But is it interest in recovery potential or as a safehaven amid market volatility. Turning point? However note the daily RSI now overbought.
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