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| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Shire | 4082 | 123.0 | 3.1 | -13.1 |
| Smith & Nephew | 1166 | 18.0 | 1.6 | -3.5 |
| ARM Holdings | 1026 | 12.0 | 1.2 | -1.3 |
| Persimmon | 2108 | 23.0 | 1.1 | 4.0 |
| Wolseley | 3980 | 41.0 | 1.0 | 7.8 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Glencore | 149.75 | -7.6 | -4.8 | 65.5 |
| Standard Chartered | 453.85 | -18.7 | -4.0 | -19.5 |
| Antofagasta | 453.9 | -15.5 | -3.3 | -3.3 |
| Pearson | 848.5 | -26.5 | -3.0 | 15.3 |
| Fresnillo | 924.5 | -28.0 | -2.9 | 30.6 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 6,146.1 | -28.9 | -0.47 | -1.5 |
| UK | 16,843.7 | -82.4 | -0.49 | -3.4 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,322.2 | -62.8 | -1.43 | -6.8 |
| DE DAX 30 | 9,794.6 | -170.9 | -1.71 | -8.8 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 17,792.8 | 107.8 | 0.61 | 2.1 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 4,914.5 | 44.7 | 0.92 | -1.9 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,072.8 | 13.0 | 0.63 | 1.4 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 16,062.8 | -101.3 | -0.63 | -15.6 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 48 | 20,498.9 | -277.8 | -1.34 | -6.5 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,005.9 | 6.5 | 0.13 | -5.5 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 36.41 | -0.43 | -1.17 | -1.8 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 38.35 | -0.23 | -0.58 | 2.0 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1220.35 | -3.25 | -0.27 | 15.1 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 15.04 | -0.01 | -0.08 | 8.8 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.42 | – | -0.03 | -3.5 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.14 | – | -0.08 | 4.9 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.25 | – | 0.04 | -7.9 |
UK 100 Index called to open -5pts at 6140, largely flat since last week's European close and once again at the midpoint of its 5-week 6100-6200 sideways channel. The bulls remain ever hopeful of a breakout to the upside at 6200 to finally overcome the 9-month downtrend of falling resistance. The Bears are fully expecting another bout of weakness, hoping that this time it proves decisive enough to breach 6080 to boost downside momentum. Watch levels: Bullish 6170, Bearish 6130.
The lukewarm opening call is on the back of a mixed start to the week for Asia - in contrast to Friday’s positive US close after decent US data - and increased bets that the US Federal Reserve will indeed proceed cautiously with future interest rate rises, although USD support is hurting commodities.
Oil prices under continued pressure is hindering sentiment after the Saudis backed away from any production freeze commitment without Iran, although this should be no surprise, and US Crude futures retreated last week for the first time since February, suggesting waning faith in the recent rally.
Japan’s Nikkei fluctuating as markets weigh up a stronger Yen and the outlook for US monetary policy following Friday’s solid US data (Jobs, Consumer Confidence, PMI & ISM Manufacturing) which did little to suggest the Fed would shift from its pledge to proceed cautiously with rate hikes.
Australia’s ASX around break even despite commodity prices under pressure and an Aussie dollar near nine month highs, with a stronger rebound in Building Approvals offsetting Retail Sales weakness. Note Chinese and Hong Kong markets closed for public holidays.
US markets closed in the green on Friday, buoyed by evidence of economic health in the positive jobs report and confident that the print will not usher in further rate hikes - beyond what’s already priced in, at any rate. Win-win! Note, however, oil price weakness on Monday after Iran again refused to participate in a production freeze despite pleas from a wobbly Saudi Arabia. With talk of $39 a barrel being the average price of crude in 2016, and oil and equities quite tightly correlated this year, that’s likely to press.
With OPEC/non-OPEC oil producers still set to meet on 17 April in Doha, it’s pretty unclear what, if anything, will be achieved, since output cannot possibly stop growing unless everyone agrees to stop growing it!
Gold showed weakness after the US jobs report as risk sentiment improved and equities benefited as a result. Note, however, the USD Basket suffering steeper falling highs through March, which should help to stem declines in the yellow metal and may well give impetus to gold bulls.
In focus today will be the Eurozone Producer Prices Inflation for evidence of improving or worsening in the deflationary pressures that ECB President Draghi is trying to combat. The region's unemployment is seen flat. In the afternoon, US Factory Orders are seen down in Feb, although like Durable Goods orders these can be volatile.
Note lenders resuming debt relief talks with Greece this morning after the latter appeared to accuse the IMF of wanting out and preferring to leave it to Europe to sort out on its own. The Fed’s Rosengren also speaks after the European close.
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