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Morning Report - 3 November 2015

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Glencore PLC 115.6 3.1 2.8 -61.3
Ashtead Group PLC 1022 22.0 2.2 -11.3
Travis Perkins PLC 1954 38.0 2.0 5.2
GKN PLC 292.3 5.1 1.8 -15.0
Barclays PLC 236.05 4.1 1.8 -3.1
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC 2052 -112.0 -5.2 3.7
Compass Group PLC 1083 -36.0 -3.2 -1.6
easyJet PLC 1713 -37.0 -2.1 2.5
Whitbread PLC 4879 -87.0 -1.8 2.3
TUI AG 1188 -21.0 -1.7 11.0
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,361.8 0.7 0.01 -3.1
UK 17,167.4 50.2 0.29 6.7
FR CAC 40 4,916.2 18.6 0.38 15.1
DE DAX 30 10,950.7 100.6 0.93 11.7
US DJ Industrial Average 30 17,828.8 165.3 0.94 0.0
US Nasdaq Composite 5,127.2 73.4 1.45 8.3
US S&P 500 2,104.1 24.7 1.19 2.2
JP Nikkei 225 18,683.2 -399.9 -2.10 7.1
HK Hang Seng Index 48 22,597.1 227.1 1.02 -4.3
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,239.2 73.5 1.42 -3.2
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 46.18 -0.16 -0.33 -14.0
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 48.70 -0.16 -0.33 -15.4
Gold ($/oz) 1137.15 4.45 0.39 -3.9
Silver ($/oz) 15.42 0.03 0.21 -1.7
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.543 0.02 -1.0
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.102 0.04 -8.9
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.400 -0.03 8.7
UK 100 called to open +25pts at 6386

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open +25pts at 6386 with another break above the 100-day MA, a hindrance throughout October, having bulls hope that it will now hold as support for further upside. Daily RSI is a concern though, having recently broken down below 2-month rising support signalling a potential loss of upside momentum, that coinciding with the index trading at the ceiling of a 1-week falling channel. Watch levels: Bullish 6420, Bearish 6300.

The positive opening call for European equities comes after Asian markets cheered the RBA’s decision to stand pat on interest rates, while hinting that it won’t rule out a rate cut if economic growth continues to concern, the only real concern being the usual low inflation that’s blighting many an economic recovery worldwide (Aussie growth was below the long term average, but growth nonetheless). The fact that sub 1% interest rates in the UK, US and Eurozone have failed dismally to boost inflation apparently not an issue for the RBA. Stick to what you know yeah?

Wall St’s bourses posted solid gains yesterday, boosted by healthcare and energy stocks as M&A chit chat dominated the drugs business and oil prices were pumped up on dubious rig-count data. Just goes to show how the markets will bite on anything – US rig counts have little to do with global supply. That can be seen by the way Saudi Arabia reacts when prices make it anywhere near levels that bring US shale producers into the game.

In focus today will be industrial data from the US with ISM New York, Factory Orders and Economic Optimism seen improving slightly. The prints will be watched closely, and with good reason as the Fed’s itchy trigger finger twitches uncontrollably above the big red rate hike button. Or does it? We just don’t know! Given the rally in US stocks yesterday, we think we do though. No rate hike in 2015.

Gold has found support at the 100-day moving average, itself at or near the floor of its 3-month rising channel. A good bounce made thus far today should give goldbulls something to ride on a technical level, while US data today sure to throw something into the works via movements in the USD.

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires/Bloomberg)

  • Hunting sees full – year profit down about 90%
  • Weir Group says workforce will reduce by a further 400 posts
  • Shell sees 40% increase in synergies from BG deal
  • ITE says to raise stake in ABEC exhibitions and conferences to 60%

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