Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)
UK 100 called to open -20pts at 6946 having failed to re-take support at 7000 which is still serving as resistance this morning. A still-strengthening Euro continues to affect equities even though bond markets sold off yesterday as well. Weak support holding this morning around 6930 with a rising trendline providing backup around 6900. Watch levels: Bullish 7050, Bearish 6800.
The negative open comes after the Euro held its biggest monthly gain in 4.5 years. Speculators had built up record bets on euro weakness as the ECB started its QE programme the US Fed discussed raising interest rates this year. That policy divergence remains, after economic reports Thursday underscored the Fed’s assessment that recent weakness in U.S. growth may be transitory, or not transitory.
In Europe, Greek PM Tsipras told the Greek cabinet he is confident a deal is close (whatever, Alexis). An unnamed Greek official also indicated optimism on coming to an agreement with creditors in the next few days.
US stocks extended their losses yesterday to finish the session in the red following mixed macro-economic data that caused a selloff in the tech sector and a 1.6 percent plunge in the Nasdaq. However, the marginally softer prints for personal income and spending were largely ignored by investors in the bond market, which managed to pare losses to close only marginally negative.
Most Asian markets are closed for Labor Day holiday. Nonetheless, Macro data from china and Japan led investors to sell the Nikkei and Aussie ASX, both of which have posted losses overnight.
In focus today we have UK net consumer credit for March with forecasts of £0.8bn, compared to £0.7bn at the last print. Increased spending power signalled by a rise in consumer held debt is usually a sign of economic recovery, though alarmingly high increases should obviously be viewed with concern for their potential to trigger a slowdown. Mortgage Approvals are expected to increase while the UK’s Manufacturing PMI is looking to improve, remaining in expansion. Later in the day we have US Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing and the University of Michigan Sentiment reading all looking for an increase.
US Light crude ($59) and the Brent benchmark ($66) are higher this morning, still in their respective uptrends having broken through horizontal resistance at $65.8 (brent) and $58.6 (WTI). Watch level for Brent is now $67 while WTI will look to break above $60 if the uptrend is indeed still alive into the weekend.
Gold ($1204) is back yet again below $1200 but supported at $1182 by a rising trend line dating back to mid-March. Key resistance still holding at $1220 with a recovery back to that sort of level unlikely before next week after a massive selloff yesterday.
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Key Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)
- China Manufacturing PMI Beat, Unchanged
- China Non-Manufacturing PMI Deteriorated
- Japan Labor Cash Earnings Missed, Unchanged
- Japan Real Cash Earnings Deteriorated
See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations
UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)
- Lloyds Q1 profits up 21% as bad debt losses fall, margins rise
- Lloyds lifts guidance on asset quality for 2015
- Smiths Group names Chris O'Shea as new finance director
- Allied irish says made Q1 profit, NIM increases
- Johnson Service says to buy London Linen Supply for £65.4mn
- Virgin Money says Q1 net mortgage lending rises 82 pct
- Colt Group Q1 revenue falls 1.3% to €394.6mn
- Allied Irish says to cut standard variable rate mortgages
- Rentokil on track to achieve profit expectations, after strong Q1
- Cape says wins two – year contract with BP worth about £100mn
- Max Petroleum says refinancing talks continue to be "positive"
- Oxford Instruments buys Medical Imaging Resources for initial $10.4mn
- Oxford Instruments acquires Medical Imaging Resources
- UK's Rough gas storage site in unplanned partial outage – Centrica