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Morning Report - 1 May 2014

UK 100 Leaders Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Barratt Developments PLC 369.5 18.2 5.2 5.9
Royal Dutch Shell PLC 2520 89.0 3.7 10.5
Shire PLC 3378 115.0 3.5 18.4
WPP Group PLC 1274 38.0 3.1 -7.7
Capita Group (The) PLC 1085 30.0 2.8 4.5
Rolls-Royce Group PLC 1050 29.0 2.8 -17.7
Anglo American PLC 1582 39.5 2.6 19.9
William Hill PLC 354.7 7.5 2.2 -11.7
UK 100 Laggards Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Tesco PLC 292.95 -10.4 -3.4 -12.4
Admiral Group PLC 1398 -44.0 -3.1 6.7
GlaxoSmithKline PLC 1632 -33.5 -2.0 1.3
British American Tobacco PLC 3417 -70.0 -2.0 5.5
ARM Holdings PLC 891.5 -17.5 -1.9 -18.9
Imperial Tobacco Group PLC 2557 -48.0 -1.8 9.4
Standard Chartered PLC 1281.5 -23.5 -1.8 -5.8
Hammerson PLC 570.5 -9.5 -1.6 13.7
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,780.03 10.12 0.15 0.46
UK 15,817.20 -79.44 -0.5 -0.74
FR CAC 40 4,487.40 -10.29 -0.23 4.46
DE DAX 30 9,603.23 19.11 0.2 0.53
US DJ Industrial Average 30 16,580.80 45.43 0.27 0.03
US Nasdaq Composite 100 4,114.56 11.02 0.27 -1.49
US S&P 500 1,883.95 5.62 0.3 1.93
JP Nikkei 225 14,477.26 173.15 1.21 -11.13
HK Hang Seng Index 48 22,133.97 -319.92 -1.42 -5.03
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,442.70 -46.38 -0.84 1.69
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 99.725 0.005 0.01 1.0334
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 108.085 0.39 0.36 -2.776
Gold ($/oz) 1289.8 -2.2 -0.17 7.2377
Silver ($/oz) 19.1525 -0.0325 -0.17 -1.2355
Platinum ($/oz) 1423.35 -3.65 -0.26 3.8498
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.6879 0.01 1.9758
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.387 0.02 0.8875
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.2168 0 0.929
UK 100 called to open +10pts at 6795

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Today's Main Events

  • 09:30     UK          PMI Manufacturing, Credit, Mortgage Approvals
  • B/M       US           Q1 Results: Mastercard, Viacom, ConocoPhilips
  • 12:00     US           Q1 Results: Motorola Solutions, Shire
  • 13:00     US           Q1 Results: Exxon Mobil, Kellog
  • 13:30     US           Jobless Claims, Personal Income & Spending
  • 13:30     US           Fed Chair Yellen speaks
  • 14:45     US           PMI Manufacturing
  • 15:00     US           ISM Manufacturing
  • A/M       US           Q1 Results: Kraft Foods
  • See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open +10pts at 6795, after a test of the 6800 mark helped by US stocks closing higher (Dow Jones first record close of 2014) with the US Fed delivering no surprises with a continued measured decrease to its QE3 stimulus programme and a carbon copy of the March statement.

This helped revive hopes of economic recovery after a disappointing US GDP report while the USD Index weakened towards mid-April lows <80, Gold pulled back <$1290/oz after an erratic day and the price of oil dropped on an easing of Ukraine concerns and growing US stocks.

Overnight we have had the official China PMI manufacturing reading which at 50.4 may have missed expectations of 50.5 but still showed an improvement (second month in a row) from 50.3 which looks to be what markets are focusing on (improved, still >50) given the positive opening calls by futures.

The IMF has approved $17bn package for the Ukraine and, in a remarkable turnaround, Portugal looks set to make a clean exit from its bailout programme (no emergency backstop, like Ireland), having looked destined for a second rescue only six months ago.

In Asia stocks are mixed, with trading volumes thin on account of holidays in China and Hong Kong. In Japan the Nikkei is positive by 1% helped by Japanese Economy Minister Amari said it is desirable to cut Japan’s corporate tax to about 20% and Kyodo news reported an Abe adviser called for more easing if tax impact grows to be serious.

Australia sits in the red after the 6th straight month of deterioration for the AIG Manufacturing Index and a slowing in house price rises, even if import and export price inflation rebounded strongly. An Iron Ore price heading back towards 2-year low amid renewed Chinese concerns and Brazilian giant Vale seeing oversupply is not helping the miners.

In focus today (with most of Europe on Holiday for Labour day) we have UK Consumer & Secured Credit and Mortgage approvals (supposedly now more onerous) which will be of interest given that UK Nationwide House Prices just out show a further acceleration, into double digit annual gains. UK PMI Manufacturing seen improving.

In the afternoon, US Weekly Jobless Claims will be looked to for improvement after last week’s jump. Fed Chair Yellen will be speaking and may offer additional information on the direction of US monetary policy than last night’s FOMC statement. US Income & Spending seen rising, US PMI Manufacturing seen confirmed and ISM Manufacturing expected to show an improvement. Still plenty of US companies reporting.

Results this morning from Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) show Q1 pre-tax profit +22% as it cut costs and bad loans declined amid a recovering  U.K. economy and it continues to plan for an H2 application to restart dividends. BSkyB (BSY) added 74K net new subscribers in Q3 (double that of a year ago), 9-month revenues +7% but operating profits -9% due to sports rights investment. Rolls Royce (RR.) says on track for flat revenue and profits in 2014, in-line with earlier forecasts.

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Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • AU       AIG Manufacturing Perf                      Deteriorated
  • AU       RPDATA/Rismark House Prices          Growth slowed
  • CN       PMI Manufacturing                             Miss, but improved
  • AU       Import/Export Prices                           Beat, rebounded
  • JP         Vehicle Sales                                       Deteriorated
  • UK        Nationwide House Prices                    Beat, accelerated
  • See Live Macro calendar for full details

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • N Brown posts 5.3 pct rise in full-year profit
  • Millennium & Copthorne three-month RevPar up 2.5 pct
  • RPS Group says growth significantly hurt by sterling strength
  • Lloyds Banking Group strengthens dividend case with increased profit
  • Schroders assets under management hit record high in Q1
  • M&C Hotels first-quarter profit falls 15.5 pct
  • Howden to open 30 new depots this year
  • Genel prices $500 mln of senior unsecured bonds
  • Weir says on track for return to growth as oil and gas strong
  • Rolls-Royce repeats guidance for flat profits in 2014
  • Fatface seeks $743 mln London listing
  • BSkyB adds 74,000 new TV customers in Q3
  • Quintain Estates buys Aldermary House for 40 mln stg
  • Greene King sells 275 pubs for 75.6 mln stg
  • Smith & Nephew's first-quarter trading profit dips
  • ARM Holdings' CFO to retire in May 2015
  • BG Group posts fall in first-quarter profit on lower output

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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