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Morning Report - 1 April 2015

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Kingfisher PLC 380.6 15.8 4.3 11.8
Babcock International Group PLC 984.5 21.5 2.2 -7.0
Persimmon PLC 1663 16.0 1.0 5.4
easyJet PLC 1882 15.0 0.8 12.6
Intertek Group PLC 2498 18.0 0.7 7.0
Carnival PLC 3296 22.0 0.7 12.9
G4S PLC 295.8 1.7 0.6 6.4
Travis Perkins PLC 1950 10.0 0.5 5.0
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Anglo American PLC 1012 -48.0 -4.5 -15.7
Imperial Tobacco Group PLC 2963 -105.0 -3.4 4.5
British American Tobacco PLC 3488.5 -106.0 -3.0 -0.3
BG Group PLC 829 -23.0 -2.7 -4.2
Meggitt PLC 548.5 -14.5 -2.6 5.7
Fresnillo PLC 682.5 -18.0 -2.6 -10.9
BHP Billiton PLC 1473.5 -38.5 -2.6 6.1
Randgold Resources Ltd 4693 -121.0 -2.5 7.2
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,773.0 -118.4 -1.72 3.2
UK 17,090.6 -117.5 -0.68 6.2
FR CAC 40 5,033.6 -49.9 -0.98 17.8
DE DAX 30 11,966.2 -119.8 -0.99 22.0
US DJ Industrial Average 30 17,776.0 -200.2 -1.11 -0.3
US Nasdaq Composite 100 4,900.9 -46.6 -0.94 3.5
US S&P 500 2,067.9 -18.4 -0.88 0.4
JP Nikkei 225 19,147.3 -59.7 -0.31 9.7
HK Hang Seng Index 48 25,068.2 167.3 0.67 6.2
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,860.8 -30.7 -0.52 8.3
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 47.38 -0.24 -0.49 -11.4
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 54.97 -0.28 -0.5 -4.0
Gold ($/oz) 1186.60 3.10 0.26 0.0
Silver ($/oz) 16.66 0.04 0.26 5.9
Platinum ($/oz) 1140.85 0.95 0.08 -5.7
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.486 0.17 -4.8
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.078 0.36 -11.2
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.379 -0.17 7.3
UK 100 called to open -36pts at 6734

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Today's Main Events

  • 09:30             UK                          Manufacturing PMI
  • 13:15             USA                       ADP Employment Change
  • 14:45             USA                       Manufacturing PMI
  • 15:30             USA                       EIA Weekly Oil Stocks

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open -36pts at 6748, having staged an overnight recovery of sorts with a bounce off support at 6670 to test the 100-period moving average at 6744. The index is now in a downwards channel as it continues to retrace from all-time highs reached on 24 March. Bulls looking for a break above 6839 while bears eyeing another fall off to that 6670 support level and below.

The negative open comes amid fresh concerns over Greece – how long will the soap opera continue? Goldman Sachs and Warren Buffet have both hinted at the reality of a Greek exit from the Eurozone, the latter suggesting it wouldn’t necessarily be such a bad thing but the former suggesting it is more likely than ever. Markets are spooked. Elsewhere, the deadline for the Iran nuclear talks had to be extended after delegates missed the deadline for coming to an agreement. The two sides are disagreeing on quite what has been achieved so far with Russian and Iranian foreign ministers saying a draft statement will be drawn up today while US and European officials suggesting those claims are exaggerated.

US stocks saw some further downside on Tuesday as profit takers got out while they could on global uncertainty worries. The outlook for US interest rates will also have weighed on the markets following remarks by Richmond Fed President Jeffrey ‘The Hawk’ Lacker, who said the case for a June rate rise is robust and that an increase may be swifter in its execution than expected. He stressed, however, that any rate movement will be according to data.

Asian Bourses again playing follow the leader with investors wary of a weak Wall St. performance and lower commodity prices. China’s HSBC manufacturing PMI was lackluster in February and industrial employers shed more jobs, two surveys showed, adding to pressure on Beijing to shore up weakening growth in the world's second-largest economy. Nonetheless, the Shanghai Composite gained 0.4% in an otherwise nervous market as investors pinned their hopes on further economic stimulus. Japan's Nikkei slipped 0.9% , while Australia's ASX fell 0.6%.

In focus today we have UK and US Manufacturing PMI data, followed later on by the weekly US EIA oil stocks.

US Light ($47) and Brent ($55) Crude have flattened out in the midst of a retracement of gains made since 17 March as investors await the Iran nuclear talks deadline – an amicable conclusion to which could see an already over populated market flooded with new oil, with potentially disastrous consequences for the price.  Oil prices have fallen for the third quarter in a row. With both benchmarks now around 50% down on last summer’s prices. The EIA report due out later today is forecast to show another rise in US stockpiles, putting the US on course to challenge Saudi Arabia as the world’s #1 oil producer.

Gold ($1185) made a bounce off support at $1178 yesterday and continues a choppy recovery this morning despite hawkish US Fed chatter and a stronger Dollar which would normally weigh on the yellow metal. Global uncertainty, the other main driver for the gold price, may be winning out this week as investors eye Iran, Yemen and Greece with concern, choosing safe haven positions in the commodity over those in Bonds.

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Key Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • China                      Manufacturing PMI                         Beat, Improved
  • China                      Non-Manufacturing PMI              Deteriorated
  • China                      HSBC Manufacturing PMI             Beat, Improved, Still Negative
  • Japan                      Manufacturing  PMI                        Deteriorated, Still Positive

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • John Laing Infrastructure Fund disposes of three energy assets for £42.5m
  • ITE estimates first – half revenue of about £56m
  • ITE Group warns on H1 revenue due to weak trading in Ukraine, Russia
  • Wincanton says trading in line with expectations
  • Amerisur Resources updates on Colombia, Paraguay assets
  • Russia's Evraz says net loss of $1.3b in 2014
  • Russia's Evraz proposes $375mtender offer to shareholders
  • Shawbrook prices London listing at 290p/share
  • PZ Cussons gains full stake in joint venture Nutricima for £21m
  • ASOS first – half profit falls 10 pct
  • Solo Oil sees commercial gas production from Tanzania asset in H1 2015
  • ICAP Shipping, Howe Robinson launch new venture
  • Senior buys Lymington Precision Engineering
  • Carlyle offers to buy Nationwide Accident Repair Services for about £43.2m
  • Fastjet says in funding talks with potential investors
  • Glanbia sells stake in Nutricima for £21m

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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