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| Yesterday’s UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Fresnillo | 867.2 | 32.2 | 3.9 | -39.3 |
| Sage | 587 | 20 | 3.5 | -26.4 |
| Randgold Resources | 6660 | 190 | 2.9 | -10.1 |
| Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust | 453.9 | 11 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 3i | 772.4 | 16.2 | 2.1 | -15.5 |
| Yesterday’s UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Micro Focus | 1308.5 | -72 | -5.2 | -48.1 |
| SSE | 1032.5 | -48 | -4.4 | -21.8 |
| BT | 233.5 | -9.9 | -4.1 | -14.1 |
| AstraZeneca | 5720 | -241 | -4.0 | 11.7 |
| National Grid | 748.7 | -29.8 | -3.8 | -14.4 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 6,584.7 | -101.3 | -1.52 | -14.4 |
| UK | 17,090.5 | -221.7 | -1.28 | -17.5 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,598.6 | -27.8 | -0.60 | -13.4 |
| DE DAX 30 | 10,381.5 | -252.3 | -2.37 | -19.6 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 23,138.8 | 260.3 | 1.14 | -6.4 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 6,579.5 | 25.1 | 0.38 | -4.7 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,488.8 | 21.1 | 0.86 | -6.9 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 20,014.8 | -62.9 | -0.31 | -12.1 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 25,502.4 | 23.6 | 0.09 | -14.8 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,654.3 | 57.1 | 1.02 | -6.8 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 45.68 | 0.59 | 1.3 | -24.0 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 53.85 | 0.36 | 0.68 | -19.2 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1280.94 | 6.74 | 0.53 | -1.7 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 15.23 | 0.54 | 3.68 | -9.8 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.2668 | – | 0.18 | -6.2 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.1463 | – | 0.28 | -4.5 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.1052 | – | -0.09 | -1.8 |
Click graph to enlarge
UK 100 called to open +15pts at 6750, holding Friday’s breakout above two sets of falling highs resistance at 6730 and 6740, respectively. Bulls need a break above 6772 overnight highs to make further ground towards 6900 December highs. Bears require a breach of 6735 at the very least, if not 6720, if the rebound is to be undone. Watch levels: Bullish 6775, Bearish 6720
Calls for a positive open come from hopes of a US-China trade war solution with President Trump having had a “very good call” with China President Xi and making “big progress”. This saw US futures rally to maintain holiday volatility after Friday saw strong gains lost into the close.
To counter trade war optimism, however, was a more reserved message from China media and China PMI Manufacturing falling into contraction. The latter which serve to may fan the flames of concern about slowing global growth although dual-listed Miners in Australia finished the holiday-shortened trading day higher.
Italy has signed a revised budget (lower deficit, below EU limits), which reduces some Europe risks and may help Banks, although Brexit uncertainty remains to the fore. Note GBP stronger which could hamper the UK Index although oil remains on the rebound which will help oil majors and may support Miners should they encounter weakness related to the China data.
In corporate news this morning we have just Rio Tinto which says the Oyu Tolgoi mine and the Mongolian government have signed a power framework agreement with an amended timetable for its mine power plan, construction to start 2020 with mid-2023 commissioning.
Note Randgold Resources pays a $2.69/3.2% dividend as part of its takeover by Barrick Gold. Note Randgold Resources pays a $2.69/3.2% dividend as part of its takeover by Barrick Gold, however the shares are suspended with effect from 7:30am and to be cancelled 8am on 2 Jan as all part of share-for-share merger with Barrick Gold.
In focus today - the last trading day of what has been an exciting 2019 - will be the fallout from overnight China PMI Manufacturing falling into contraction (49.4 vs 50 prev. vs 49.9 est) for the first time since July 2016 (and more than expected), posting its weakest since Feb 2016. On the flip side, offering a smidgen of positivity, was PMI Non-Manufacturing beating consensus (53.8 vs 53.4 prev.), recovering from its lowest since August 2017.
Other data today, after UK markets close early (12.30pm) for the New Year’s Holiday, includes US Dallas Fed Manufacturing (3.30pm), forecast weaker in December (15 vs 17.6 prev). For the rest of the week, UK equities being closed tomorrow for the New Year Holiday, we have PMI Manufacturing for Europe on Wednesday, along with US ISM Manufacturing.
Thursday offers us a much anticipated Christmas trading update from retailer Next, traffic stats from Ryanair, ex-dividends and the US ADP Jobs report which can be a warm-up for Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls. Note also China PMI Services, which will be watched closely given this morning’s data.
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Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research