Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open -5pts at 7045 (ex-dividends -9.7pts), back from yesterday’s highs but holding above the falling trendline it broke above. Bulls need the breakout above yesterday’s 7066 highs to make headway towards October falling highs at 7150. Bears require a breach of overnight lows of 7030, if not the aforementioned trendline at 7025, for a reversal. Watch levels: Bullish 6985, Bearish 7025

Calls for a tepid open come after broadly sideways trading on Wall St (Nasdaq biggest mover after a Tech/Energy rebound) and a sluggish start in Asia. PM May and EU chief Juncker reported making “good progress” on Brexit negotiations, but the final sealed deal remains ever elusive, with several EU member states eager to stick a spanner in the works ahead of the Sunday’s planned EU Summit. GBP flat in response.

In corporate news today, Centrica projects FY adj. op. cash flow £2.1-2.3B, net debt £2.5-3B, unchanged dividend and op. profit/EBITDA above 2017. Reiterates FY targets despite UK tariff caps (est. £70m op. profit hit in Q1 2019), extended Nuclear outages/inspections and forecast production fall from Spirit Energy. Trading in commodity-exposed consumer business highly competitive. £200m annualised efficiencies ontrack.

Severn Trent H1 turnover +3.6%, group underlying EBIT +4.3% (reported +1.4%), dividend +7.9%; Outcome delivery incentives in-line with expectations; £10m cost in H1 for dry summer, expect similar cost in H2 for recovery; Capex plans on-track, locked in 95% of totex efficiencies.

Shell sells 26.6% stake in Australian natural gas project Greater Sunrise to East Timor government for $300m. Standard Chartered says US monitoring as part of anti-money laundering and sanctions remediation will expire 31 Dec, replaced by independent consultant guidance for 1-2yrs.

INTU Properties has deadline for consortium offer extended (yet again, 3rd time) to 30 Nov to continue talks and for consortium to complete financing process/ satisfy other preconditions. Consortium confirmed due diligence now largely complete; no change to 210.4p offer. Derwent London announces £250m US Private Placement at weighted average 2.89% for 10.8yrs

GVC acquires Aussie digital sports betting company Neds Intl. for an initial £37m and max £52m. Mitchells & Butlers FY adj. revenue +0.5% YoY, pre-tax profit -1.1%, op. margin -30bps. No final dividend (like at interim). Positive trading in new year (first 7 week sales +2.2%); challenging market.

Rotork Q3 organic constant FX revenue +9.9% (Controls +14.9%, Fluid Systems +8.4%, Gears -2.6%, Instruments -0.6%). Anticipates robust FY performance, expectations unchanged. Mothercare first half loss narrows even despite UK sales continuing to decline; store closures ahead of schedule; expects volatile 2019, comfortable with consensus.

Bank of Georgia Q3 banking revenues +19.4% YoY, cost of credit risk +43.2%, pre-tax profits +15.7% (-2.5% QoQ); deposits +21.1%, loans +25.5%; Recent policy changes to mean growth rates in unsecured consumer sector will moderate; expect FY customer lending growth comfortably within 15-20% target, with lending growth expectations over next few years closer to 15%

Mitie Group H1 revenue +4%, pre-tax profit +7.3%, dividend unchanged, order book -6.1%. Expects modest FY top-line growth and confident in achieving 4.5-5.5% med-term margin growth target.

What’s in focus today, a potentially quiet session on account of the US Thanksgiving holiday? Firstly, as always, Brexit and the run-up to this weekend’s EU Summit after PM May failed yesterday to finalise the Brexit deal and the UK’s post-Brexit relationship with the EU. Work to do.

Secondly, ECB Meeting Minutes (1.30pm). With Eurozone growth still struggling, but inflation at/above target, traders will be attentive for any member uncertainty about the plan for further policy normalization (ending QE at year-end, hiking rates late next year). Risks “still broadly balanced”?

Data itself is limited to flash EU Consumer Confidence (3pm), forecast weeker in November.

Speakers include the ECB’s Angeloni (9.15am and 11.15am; keynote speech and panel participation at Annual Conference on Banking Union), the ECB’s Mersch (5pm; Banking and Corporate evening) and Bank of England’s Saunders (text published 8.55pm; CBI South West Economics Dinner).

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