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Morning Report - 21 November 2018

Yesterday’s UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Compass Group 1673 85.5 5.4 4.6
Just Eat 550.4 16.6 3.1 -29.5
Halma 1350 39 3.0 7.1
3i 832.6 23 2.8 -8.9
National Grid 846.8 20.9 2.5 -3.2
Yesterday’s UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Evraz 515.2 -33.2 -6.1 51.5
easyJet 1110.5 -64.5 -5.5 -24.2
Ashtead 1708.5 -89.5 -5.0 -14.2
GVC 746.5 -33.5 -4.3 -19.3
DCC 5555 -240 -4.1 -25.6
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,947.9 -53.0 -0.76 -9.6
UK 18,366.4 -173.7 -0.94 -11.4
FR CAC 40 4,924.9 -60.6 -1.21 -7.3
DE DAX 30 11,066.4 -178.1 -1.58 -14.3
US DJ Industrial Average 30 24,465.8 -551.8 -2.21 -1.0
US Nasdaq Composite 6,908.8 -119.7 -1.70 0.1
US S&P 500 2,641.9 -48.8 -1.82 -1.2
JP Nikkei 225 21,507.5 -75.6 -0.35 -5.5
HK Hang Seng Index 50 25,833.7 -6.6 -0.03 -13.7
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,642.8 -29.0 -0.51 -7.0
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 54.22 -0.13 -0.23 -9.8
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 63.31 -0.23 -0.35 -5.0
Gold ($/oz) 1222.15 -1.45 -0.12 -6.2
Silver ($/oz) 14.34 -0.07 -0.49 -15.1
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.2807 0.16 -5.2
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.1388 0.14 -5.1
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1248 0.03 -0.1
UK 100 Index called to open +30 pts at 6975

UK 100 : 1-month, daily

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open +30pts at 6975, extending the rebound from yesterday’s sell-off to 6600. Bulls need the breakout above 6975 to hold, for a challenge on 7000 and then falling highs at 7022. Bears require a break back below 6975 to put the rebound in jeopardy. Watch levels: Bullish 6985, Bearish 6965

Calls for a positive open come in spite of persistent downbeat sentiment with  Asia following Wall St lower, the Tech wreck continuing to inflict damage while Energy joined the rout after a steep fall in oil prices, the Brent crude benchmark hitting its lowest since March. That said, oil has recovered some ground (Brent >$63) after US API Oil Inventories posted an unexpected drawdown to end six consecutive weeks of builds (-1.5m vs. +2.9m est. vs. +8.8m prev.)

In corporate news today, Reuters reports that the UK National Farmers' Union (NFU) warned against the Sainsbury-Asda merger, saying it could squeeze farmers’ prices and affect shoppers’ choice. S&P Global Ratings revises Marks & Spencer outlook to negative (from stable); affirms BBB- rating.

Babcock H1 underlying revenues -2.3%, pre-tax profit +2.5%, free cash flow +215%, net debt -12%, order book +3%, dividend +3.6%. Exceptional £120m charge after disposals, £10m net cash cost. FY outlook unchanged at low single digit revenue growth. Expects £250m lower revenue (£20m lower profits) in Magnox nuclear decommissioning JV vs. £100m prior guidance.

Sage FY18 organic revenues +6.8% just shy of 7% guidance, operating margin -20bp beats guidance of -100bp, cash conversion +100bp, div +7%; FY19 recurring revenues (79% of total) seen +8-9%, SSRS and Processing likely flat/decline mid-single digits. Organic growth may decrease in short term amid transition towards subscription (investing extra £60m), with margins lower.

CFO of BHP says it would like to have more growth projects in copper and oil; Now a 'Deep Value Investor'; Focused on undervalued value assets, but mindful that growth needed. Shell is investigating above-normal gas emissions at Deer Park refinery near Houston.

United Utilities H1 revenues +4.6%, underlying operating profit +6.9%, underlying net profit +23%; interim dividend growth almost doubles (3.9% vs 2.2% prev.), in-line with “at least RPI” through 2020. Indivior responds to Federal Court Decision; will continue to defend IP and implement contingency plan; FY18 guidance still valid until generic Suboxone sublingual film enters market.

 Johnson Matthey H1 underlying constant FX sales +10% YoY, pre-tax profit +10%, dividend +7% after strong growth in Clean Air. Expects FY growth toward upper end of mid-high single digit guidance with £1-2m FX tailwind.

 Kingfisher Q3 like-for-like constant FX revenues -1.3% YoY (UK/IRE: -0.7%, France: -3.4%, Other: +1.6%). Screwfix +4.1% remains strong; Castorama main challenge (-7.3%). On track for strategic milestones and gross margin increase. To return extra £50m via buyback (£140m by year-end).

TalkTalk H1 headline revenue +3.9% YoY, dividend unchanged, ARPU declined due to Wholesale/Retail mix, but should stabilise by year-end in-line with guidance. FY EBITDA in-line. Launched new FibreNation JV with Sky to rollout fibre broadband to 3m more customers.

SSP FY revenues +9.5% at constant FX (+7.8% actual, 2.8% like-for-like) underlying operating profits +22.7%, dividend +25.9%, net debt -27.7%; new year started in line; uncertainty always exists around short term passenger numbers. Faroe Petroleum commences Brasse East exploration well.

What’s in focus today? Firstly, UK PM Theresa May meets EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in Brussels to iron out the final details of the UK-EU post-Brexit relationship.

Secondly, the EU Commission reports on Italy’s debt, which could involve disciplinary measures, maybe even fines, over breaching spending limits and excessive debt. Watch EUR and Italian banks, with potential spill-over to UK Index Banks.

On the macro front, most of the data comes from the other side of the pond as the USA rushes to clear the decks before the Thanksgiving Holiday and long weekend. First up is US Durable Goods Orders (1.30pm), forecast weaker in October at the headline (-2.5% vs +0.8% prev.), but stronger once lumpy defense and transport transactions are excluded.

Thereafter US Uni of Michigan Consumer Confidence (3pm) is likely to confirm Sentiment a smidge lower in November, although Conditions and Expectations may show small improvements.

US Existing Home Sales probably rebounded in October (1% vs -3.4%) although the CB Leading Index is expected flat (0.1% vs 0.5% prev.) before US EIA Oil Inventories (3.30pm) which will be very much in focus given the weak oil price and 8 consecutive weekly builds (avg. +6m barrels).

In terms of speakers today, Bank of England Governor Carney is up again, speaking at The Prince’s Accounting for Sustainability Summit 2018 in London, with the text published 3.15pm.

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.


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Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research
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