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Morning Report - 20 November 2018

Yesterday’s UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Fresnillo 894.2 29.2 3.4 -37.4
Schroders 2230 55 2.5 -11.1
Lloyds Banking 55.83 1.3 2.4 -18.0
3i 809.6 14.2 1.8 -11.4
Severn Trent 1854.5 31 1.7 -14.2
Yesterday’s UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Ashtead 1798 -80 -4.3 -9.7
Johnson Matthey 2877 -123 -4.1 -6.4
Just Eat 533.8 -21.2 -3.8 -31.7
Smurfit Kappa 2226 -76 -3.3 -11.2
Imperial Brands 2560.5 -78 -3.0 -19.1
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 7,000.9 -13.0 -0.19 -8.9
UK 18,540.0 -49.0 -0.26 -10.6
FR CAC 40 4,985.5 -39.8 -0.79 -6.2
DE DAX 30 11,244.5 -96.5 -0.85 -13.0
US DJ Industrial Average 30 25,017.5 -395.8 -1.56 1.2
US Nasdaq Composite 7,028.5 -219.4 -3.03 1.8
US S&P 500 2,690.7 -45.5 -1.66 0.6
JP Nikkei 225 21,583.1 -238.0 -1.09 -5.2
HK Hang Seng Index 50 25,863.8 -508.2 -1.93 -13.6
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,671.8 -21.9 -0.38 -6.5
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 57.07 0.60 1.07 -5.1
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 66.56 0.39 0.59 -0.1
Gold ($/oz) 1223.88 0.38 0.03 -6.1
Silver ($/oz) 14.41 0.05 0.35 -14.7
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.2857 0.01 -4.8
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.1455 0.01 -4.5
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1224 0.00 -0.3
UK 100 Index called to open -20pts at 6980

UK 100 : 1-month, daily

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open -20pts at 6980, back around last week’s lows after once again succumbing to falling highs resistance. Bulls need a break above 6995 to overcome yesterday afternoon’s falling highs trendline. Bears require a breach of last week’s 6970 lows. Watch levels: Bullish 6995, Bearish 6970

Calls for a negative open come after Asia followed Wall St sharply lower with Tech getting another bruising amid worries about iPhone demand while Automakers and other industrials reacted to the arrest of Nissan/Renault/Mitsubishi boss Carlos Ghosn for financial misconduct.

Worries over iPhone demand were the Nasdaq catalyst (-3%, Asia down 1-2%), but losses spread through the rest of the Tech sector, semiconductor shares seeing red after China alleged competition violations among chip-makers. FAANGs now deep into bear’s den, down over 20% from 2018 peak.

In corporate news today, Sky News reports UK gambling groups will hold talks today about a series of voluntary curbs on advertising amid mounting political pressure for an industry crackdown.

easyJet FY18 revenues +16.8% to £5.898B and dividend +43.3% to 58.6p beat consensus; headline pre-tax profit +41.4% to £578m just misses consensus. Passengers +10.2%, capacity +9.8%, load +30bp, rev per seat +6.4%; cost per seat +5.3% (+4.8% ex fuel); H119 capacity forecast +15% (FY +10%); H1 rev per seat seen down low to mid-single digits, costs per seat flat ex-fuel; CAPEX £1B, solid 50% demand in forward bookings, summer ahead of schedule; solid hedging for fuel costs.

Ocado and US partner Kroger begin construction of the first of twenty automated online grocery warehouses in Cincinnati ($55m cost). UK Tech names could be sensitive to last night’s Nasdaq rout. WPP's Grey New York names four new executive creative directors.

Anglo American’s De Beers sold $440m in diamonds during 9th 2018 sales cycle (-8.7% vs cycle 8), in-line with expectations. Sales of smaller, lower quality diamonds still challenging, but miner sees improvements. BHP drops Billiton from name and changes ticker to BHP (from BLT). CRH starts phase 3 of its max €1bn share buyback with a max €100m to be bought through 31 Dec. BYG H1 revenues +7%, adj. Pre-tax profit +9%, operating cash flow +16%, interim dividend +9%

Compass Group FY underlying revenue +5.5% (NA: +7.8%, Europe: +2.1%, UK strong), op. profit +7.1%, free cash flow +17.1%, dividend +12.5%. To dispose of up to 5% in non-core business. Sees strong contract pipeline and 4-6% organic 2019 growth with modest margin progression.

CYBG FY deposits +4.2%, loans +4.1% (mortgages +4.5%, SME +5.6%). Underlying pre-tax profit +13% but statutory loss after tax due to legacy PPI. Net interest margin -10bps to 2.17%, CT1 ratio -182bps to 10.5%, Dividend 3.1p. Brexit remains key future uncertainty. Guidance for FY19 NIM of 160-170bps and underlying costs of <GBP950m after Virgin Money acquisition.

Halma H1 revenue +16% YoY (+14% organic constant FX, headwinds to reverse in H2), adj. pre-tax profit +19%, dividend +7%, net debt +7.5%. Revenue growth in all geographies. Order intake ahead of revenue and previous year. On track to deliver “more typical” growth in H2 and strong FY growth.

Plus500 trading in-line, expects FY results ahead of market expectations. Entertainment One H1 revenue -2% YoY, underlying EBITDA +10%, adj. pre-tax profit 7%, H2 to be helped by growth in China and FY financial performance expected in-line with expectations.

Polypipe 10-month like-for-like revenue +4.1% (residential +8.1%, commercial -0.6%) with strong residential demand from new housebuild and catch up after earlier weather-related disruptions. Expects H2 op. margins higher than 2017 and FY profits in-line with expectations.

Aveva H1 revenues +10.9%, adj. Pre-tax profit +54.3% (statutory +56.4% and +89.2%); Recurring revenue +18.7% and adjusted PBT margin +490bps; Interim dividend reinstated at 14p. Full year outlook remains positive. Spectris 4-month like-for-like sales +8%; FY expected in-line with expectations.

In focus today, will be the latest on Brexit discussions, both at home and on the continent, ahead of Sunday’s (25 Nov) Special meeting of the European Council (Article 50) to endorse the Brexit withdrawal agreement and approve the political declaration on future EU-UK relations. The Commission intends to agree on a final draft of the political declaration with the UK by Today.

Data-wise, we are limited to UK CBI Industrial Trends (11am) followed by US Housing Starts and Building Permits (3pm). Note yesterday’s US NAHB Housing market index disappointed with its lowest read since late 2016. Lastly, with oil still under pressure, US API Oil Inventories (9.30pm) could move barrel prices overnight.

In terms of speakers today, Bank of England Governor Carney testifies (10am), alongside Haldane, Cunliffe and Saunders, giving evidence on the Bank of England’s latest inflation report.

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.


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Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research
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