Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open +10pts at 7670, up off yesterday’s 7640 lows to hold an eight-day rising channel. Bulls need a break above 7690 if they are to revisit Tuesday’s 7740 highs or the channel ceiling. Bears require a breach of 7650 to put the rising channel floor under pressure. Watch levels: Bullish 7690, Bearish 7650

Calls for a positive open are supported by gains on Wall St after President Trump and EU counterpart Juncker agreed to a ceasefire of tit-for-tat transatlantic trade tariffs. Agreeing to no new tariffs (existing ones remain) on industrial goods while they work to reduce US-EU trade barriers, a trade war may have been averted. That said, Cars (especially valuable for Germany) remains in the firing line as a potential focus for Trump protectionism.

Asia trading nonetheless mixed, with China trading lower as the Sino-US trade war story rumbles on. USD also weaker versus peers, with reciprocal Sterling strength hampering the UK Index , although higher oil prices (Saudi Arabia suspended some oil shipments through Red Sea after Houthi rebel attacks) may help Energy shares.

Amid the deluge of corporate news this morning Royal Dutch Shell launches $25bn buy-back. Q2 profits +30% miss expectations. dividend unchanged; Q3 Gas and Upstream production seen lower, Refinery higher, Oil product sales flat.

Anglo American H1 underlying rev. +2%, EBITDA +11%, copper production +19%, metallurgical coal +17%, diamonds +8%. Dividend +2%. FY production outlook unchanged for diamonds, nickel & coal, increased for platinum, lower for iron ore.

AstraZeneca H1 like-for-like rev. -5%, gross margin -3%, op. profit -20%, dividend unchanged, FY guidance unchanged. Schroders H1 profits +8% (11% excl. exceptionals), net inflows +50%, AUM +0.5%, div +3%. Segro H1 adj. pre-tax profits +21.3%, NAV +8%, interim div +5.7%, full year CAPEX to exceed £500m, “alert to a number of macroeconomic and political risks".

GlaxoSmithKline says mepolizumab not approved by FDA for COPD. Diageo FY organic net sales +5%, vol. +2%, op. profit +7%; extra £2bn share buyback; FX headwind into 2019, me-term 2016-19 outlook unchanged (mid-single-digit organic net sales, 175bp margin expansion).

British American Tobacco H1 rev. +56.9%, op. profit +72.4% (estimate miss), cigarette market share +40bps, driven by 11.7% strategic cigarette and THP volume growth, sees another good year of earnings growth. RELX H1 underlying revenues +4%, op profit +6%, div +6%; Backs guidance. Compass 3Q organic revenues +5.7%; Backs FY Guidance of 4-6% growth. Sky FY revenues +5% like-for-like and EBITDA +9% just below consensus. Smith & Nephew Q2 underlying revenues +2% (H1 +1%), confirms full year guidance. Johnson Matthey sees Q1 trading in-line with views.

Evraz Q2 steel output -2.3% YoY, coking coal concentrate +11.7%, steel product sales -5.1%, sales of finished products +2.6%, sees stronger demand for construction and railway products. Cobham to take £40m charge over KC-46 program, backs FY 2018 view.

In focus today will be the ECB Interest Rate Decision (12:45pm; no changes forecast) followed by a press conference where ECB President Draghi (1:30pm) is likely to stay on message regarding plans to half the QE bond-buying stimulus programme late September and close it by year end, in spite of continued soft economic data from the Eurozone region. Watch EUR.

This afternoon, US Durable Goods Orders (1:30pm) are +3% MoM in June rebounding strongly from two months of contraction (-0.6%, -1%), while the ex-Transport metric returns to growth, albeit more humble (0.5% vs -0.3% prev).

We have lots more big US corporates reporting results, including Xerox (pre-market, TBC), Mastercard and  McDonald’s (1pm), Comcast (1:30pm watch Sky shares in London for potential read-across), and then Amazon, Intel, Expedia and Starbucks  after hours (9pm).

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