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| Yesterday’s UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Evraz | 490 | 14 | 2.9 | 44.1 |
| Randgold Resources | 6108 | 140 | 2.4 | -17.6 |
| TUI AG | 1723 | 24.5 | 1.4 | 11.9 |
| Fresnillo | 1296.5 | 16.5 | 1.3 | -9.3 |
| Barratt Developments | 561.4 | 6.8 | 1.2 | -13.3 |
| Yesterday’s UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| BT Group | 232.15 | -10.1 | -4.2 | -14.6 |
| Kingfisher | 278.8 | -11.8 | -4.1 | -17.4 |
| NMC Health | 3512 | -110 | -3.0 | 21.7 |
| G4S | 258.6 | -6.8 | -2.6 | -3.2 |
| Standard Chartered | 742.4 | -19 | -2.5 | -4.8 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 7,502.7 | -40.5 | -0.54 | -2.4 |
| UK | 20,366.0 | -140.4 | -0.68 | -1.7 |
| FR CAC 40 | 5,501.7 | -27.6 | -0.50 | 3.6 |
| DE DAX 30 | 12,690.2 | -112.1 | -0.88 | -1.8 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 23,930.3 | 5.3 | 0.02 | -3.2 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 7,088.2 | -12.8 | -0.18 | 2.7 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,629.7 | -5.9 | -0.23 | -1.6 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 22,472.8 | CLOSED | CLOSED | -1.3 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 30,157.4 | -156.0 | -0.51 | 0.8 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 6,064.6 | -33.7 | -0.55 | 0.0 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 68.51 | 0.87 | 1.28 | 13.9 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 73.68 | 0.57 | 0.78 | 10.6 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1313.68 | -0.33 | -0.02 | 0.8 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 16.43 | – | 0 | -2.7 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.3581 | – | 0.06 | 0.6 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.1988 | – | -0.01 | -0.1 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.1330 | – | 0.09 | 0.7 |
Click graph to enlarge
UK 100 Index called to open +30pts at 7535, after another bounce off March rising support, this time at 7490. This extends a 7-week rising channel, and bolsters support around 7500 in the case of anther pullback. Bulls need a break above overnight highs of 7560. Bears require a breach of rising support, now at 7505. Watch levels: Bullish 7560, Bearish 7505
Calls for a positive UK Index open are in spite of minor declines on Wall St and Asia (ex-Japan), as traders prepare for the outcome of US-China trade talks (so far so good says US Trade Sec. Mnuchin) and gear up for this afternoon’s US jobs report, which has potential to revive hawkishness about Fed rate hikes if wage growth is strong, pushing USD higher and GBP lower.
Note GBP weak again overnight versus USD, helping the UK Index bluechip index off its lows. Sentiment further supported by a bigger improvement in China Caixin PMI Services, from last month’s weakest since December.
The results from UK local elections appear inconclusive thus far. UKIP looks the biggest seat loser while both the Conservatives and Labour got good and bad news and the Lib Dems taking control of Richmond. However, voters look to have failed to deliver a clear verdict on the PM’s efforts regarding Brexit talks, leaving her with a still shaky negotiating mandate.
In corporate news this morning we have lots of European banks including, HSBC: Q1 Revs $13.7B (+5.5% YoY), just ahead of estimates; Net interest income $7.46B (+9.9%) was just shy; PBT $4.76B (-4%) missed est $5.76B ($6B adj.) on higher op expenses; Net profit $3.09B fell (-1.3%); to launch up to $2bn share buyback. Shares down 1.9% in Hong Kong overnight. Note France’s BNP Paribas reports mixed results while peer Société Générale beat expectations.
Smurfit Kappa Q1 underlying revenues +7% YoY, EBITDA +22%, final dividend +12%, FY 2018 outcome expected materially better than 2017. Strong demand in most markets, lower average recovered fibre costs offset by other costs and FX. FT reports BT set to announce several thousand more job cuts in next week’s results. Vivo Energy (spin-off from Shell) prices IPO at 165p (£2bn); conditional dealings start 8am.
Int. Cons Airlines Q1 total revenues €5.022bn (+2.1%) miss €5.15bn est., but Op profit (ex-items) €280m (+75%) easily beats consensus €200m. FX boost. Passenger revenues +3.4%, but Passenger unit revs -0.7%, because capacity +4.1%, fuel costs +0.6% but non-fuel -5.7%, net debt lower. Still expects 2018 operating profit up year-on-year. easyJet April passengers +4.7% YoY (+8% for rolling 12M) load +50bp to 93.4% (+140bp to 93.3%).
InterContinental Hotels Q1 global comparable RevPAR +3.5% YoY, net system growth +4.3% (strongest Q1 expansion for 11 years), on-track to deliver $125m savings. Pearson Q1 (smallest Quarter) Total underlying revenues +1%, N. America and Core growth offset by Growth and South Africa phasing. Reiterates FY guidance. Millennium & Copthorne Hotels 1Q revenue per room down on FX headwinds.
Oil prices advanced once again to $68.51/73.68, as Middle East tensions continued and traders were weighing recent oil inventory builds (both API and DOE) against concerns of potential new caps on crude supply from Iran (which threatened to completely scrap the multilateral nuclear deal if US withdrew from it). Gold was one again flat, trading at $1312 (+0.08%), as the USD was holding steady, though off of 4-month highs, ahead of release of Non-Farm Payrolls and jobs report late today.
In focus today will be the US Jobs report (1.30pm) and fabled Non-Farm Payrolls forecast to rebound towards the 200K average, but Unemployment improve further, from 4.1% to 4.0%, the lowest since late 2000. However, with the Fed suggesting no worries about jobs and more concern with inflation, Wages growth may again steal the show should it deviate much from the forecast unchanged 2.7%. Watch the USD which could impact GBP commodities and thus the UK Index .
Before that, however, Eurozone PMI Services (8-9am) are expected to have ticked up in France, Germany and the Eurozone as a whole, all still comfortably above the 50 breakeven. France and Spain are still outperforming both Germany and Italy. Watch the EUR.
UK New Car Registrations (9am) likely rebounded strongly in April, breaking a 12-month run of contraction, albeit flattered by an easy comparable (April 2017 was very weak). Eurozone Retail Sales (10am) likely saw growth accelerate in March, although consensus may be forgetting the cold snap, meaning potential for a downside surprise. Watch the EUR.
Big name US companies reporting Q1 results today include insurer Aon, online retail platform Alibaba and biopharma Celgene.
Central Bank speakers include the ECB/Bundesbank’s Weidmann (2pm) and a trio of Fed speakers including Dudley (hawkish, 5.45pm), Williams (hawkish, 8pm) and Quarles (Centrist, 10.30pm). Keep an eye on the USD and its impact on GBP and UK Index .
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