Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open flat at 7255, continuing to consolidate in a now tighter 7250-7270 range, in effect in within a bullish ascending triangle pattern which would imply an eventual  break to the upside. That said, 4-day rising lows are in competition with intersecting falling highs resistance going back to late November. Bulls require a break above 7275 to overcome said resistance and this week’s highs, Bears a breach of rising support at 7250. Watch levels: Bullish 7275, Bearish 7245

Calls for a flat open stem from an understandable element of indecision into the end of what has been an exciting week. This in spite of another day of gains on Wall St and a generally positive session in Asia overnight, apprehension perhaps liked to Q1 earnings season which kicks off in the US this afternoon with the Banks (JP Morgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo).

Positive drivers include a tempering of Middle East tensions amid allied talks and dialled back rhetoric on the urgency of military intervention in Syria and Trump mulling re-joining the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), something he withdraw the US from in one of its first acts as President, but only if the deal is better than that which Obama originally signed up to.

On the negative side, China’s Trade Balance fell to a surprise deficit (exports dropped, imports jumped), however, a look at the last decade shows a regular drop in trade balance during the first three months of the year, suggesting seasonality in play (Lunar New Year = movable feast). Nonetheless, Miners up in Australia overnight, Rio Tinto outperforming rival BHP Billiton.

Brent Crude Oil prices have broken above $71.5 to trade highest since November 2014, buoyed by Middle East uncertainty (Syria, Saudi Arabia) while US Crude is still toying with Jan highs, just shy of $67. Gold off recent highs on improved risk appetite and stronger USD.

In corporate news this morning, Sage Group’s H1 trading update disappoints and revised guidance equates to profits warning. London Stock Exchange appoints Goldman veteran David Schwimmer (not he of Friends) as replacement for departed CEO Xavier Rolet. Rolls Royce costs to be higher on additional engine inspections, but reaffirms £450m FY free-cash-flow guidance. Klépierre does not intend to make offer for Hammerson.

In focus today, with a sparse data docket, will be the IEA Monthly Oil Market report (9am). This comes hot on the heels of OPEC which revised up its own estimate for 2018 non-OPEC supply, lifted its forecast for global oil demand and suggested an earlier balancing of markets, by Q2/Q3 vs end-18 previously. It also reported the cartel’s lowest crude oil production in a year, highest compliance with coordinated production cuts and growing confidence in an extension to said cuts which has helped keep oil prices up around recent highs, especially Brent, along with geopolitical tensions.

Thereafter, we only US JOLTS Job Openings and US Consumer Confidence (both 3pm) on offer for data accompanied by Fed speakers including Rosengren (12.30pm; Economic Outlook), Bullard (2pm; Living standards) and Kaplan (6pm) to close the week.

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