Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open -15pts at 7240, continuing to consolidate in a tight 7230-7275 range in a tug of war between, 1) a rising channel since last Friday, and, 2) intersecting falling highs resistance from November highs. Bulls need a break above 7275 to overcome the latter, Bears a breach of 7228 support for a breakdown from the former. Watch levels: Bullish 7275, Bearish 7230

Calls for a negative open stem from another mixed session in Asia overnight, itself following losses and a weak lead from Wall St last night as geopolitical uncertainty (supportive of precious metals safehavens such as Gold and Silver ) overshadows what is widely expected to be a decent Q1 earnings season.

The Energy sector and Oil prices continue to be propped up by the ratcheting of tensions surrounding the Middle East (Syria, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Iran, Israel) and most recently by New Zealand banning future oil & gas exploration, a move that has potential to be emulated by others over time. Lower metals prices may hurt Miners, however, amid dampened risk appetite.

In corporate news this morning, Reuters reports Takeda Pharmaceuticals talking with lenders about credit facilities to fund its acquisition of Shire.

UK Housebuilders may be sensitive to RICS House Price data suggesting flat growth for  second straight month, missing expectations for a rise, and buyer demand waning for a full year now. Countryside Properties buys Westleigh for up to £135.4m. Greene King says weather hurt sales (-1.8%), Easter strong, narrows FY pre-tax estimate to £240-245m.

National Grid FY underlying group EBIT expected in line with original guidance, but headline EBIT seen lower due to storm impact on US business, offset at net level by lower financing costs and lower effective tax rate. Glencore has declared force majeure on some aluminum contracts, according to Bloomberg.

Man Group reports $4.8bn net inflows in Q1, plans $100m share buyback. Hays says Q3 net fees +10% like-for-like; Germany strong, UK & Ireland subdued. Mothercare says Q4 like-for-like sales -2.8% on lower footfall, but UK online (49% of UK sales) back to growth; continues to close stores; trading in-line with FY guidance. Carpetright finalised terms of CVA to restore viability of business model.

Intertek makes small lab testing acquisition in Columbia (Proasem; 190 employees, £4.5m revenues). Saga underlying pre-tax profits +1.4%, EPS +0.7%, net debt -7%, dividend +6%. WH Smith H1 revenues flat, pretax profits -1%, high street still under pressure (-5%; -4% like-for-like) offset by travel +7% (3% like-for-like); interim dividend +9.5%. Dunelm Q3 sales +4.6% like-for-like (stores +1.2%, online +35.7%); 9M sales +2.8% like-for-like.

In focus today will be Eurozone Industrial Production (10am) forecast to rebound in Feb, from a weak Jan, helping the annual pace of growth re-accelerate to back-up a still gradually improving regional economy. This afternoon, the US Import and Export Price Indices (1.30pm) may be of interest in terms of inflationary read across for Fed expectations, with consensus looking for faster year-on year increases.

Speakers and Events may dominate with the OPEC Monthly Oil report (12pm) and ECB Minutes  (12.30pm). This is followed by speeches from the ECB’s Coeure (1.15pm), potential future ECB president Weidmann (5pm), the Bank of England Governor Carney (8pm) and, lastly, the Fed’s Kashkari (10pm), all of whom could move their respective currencies (EUR, GBP and USD).

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