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Morning Report - 4 January 2018

Yesterday’s UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Next 4800 300 6.7 6.1
Just Eat 810.4 33.4 4.3 3.8
Experian 1635.5 36 2.3 0.0
Associated British Foods 2837 58 2.1 0.6
easyJet 1531.5 30.5 2.0 4.6
Yesterday’s UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Antofagasta 975.2 -25.8 -2.6 -3.0
WPP 1303 -33.5 -2.5 -2.8
Fresnillo 1400 -35 -2.4 -2.0
Randgold Resources 7294 -152 -2.0 -1.6
Mediclinic International 638 -11 -1.7 -1.8
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 7,671.1 23.0 0.30 -0.2
UK 20,744.0 62.5 0.30 0.1
FR CAC 40 5,331.3 42.7 0.81 0.4
DE DAX 30 12,978.2 106.8 0.83 0.5
US DJ Industrial Average 30 24,922.8 98.8 0.40 0.8
US Nasdaq Composite 7,065.5 58.6 0.84 2.4
US S&P 500 2,713.1 17.3 0.64 1.5
JP Nikkei 225 23,506.3 741.4 3.26
HK Hang Seng Index 50 30,712.3 151.3 0.50 2.7
AU S&P/ASX 200 6,077.1 6.7 0.11 0.2
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 62.14 0.80 1.3 3.4
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 68.18 0.75 1.11 2.3
Gold ($/oz) 1310.27 -5.84 -0.44 0.6
Silver ($/oz) 17.17 -0.01 -0.08 1.7
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.3525 0.10 0.2
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.2030 0.16 0.3
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1242 -0.06 -0.1
UK 100 Index called to open +20pts at 7690

UK 100 : 1-month, 4-hourly

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open +20pts at 7690, extending yesterday’s bounce from the 7645 floor of December’s rising channel. Bulls need a break above 7700 to open the door to the channel ceiling around 7750. Bears require a break below 7660 if they want to revisit late Dec lows of 7610. Watch levels: Bullish 7700, Bearish 7660

Calls for a positive open stem from another trifecta of Wall St record highs and a strong China Caixin PMI Services figure overnight that makes for a 3-month rebound to its best in 3 years. After yesterday’s strong US ISM prints this has helped Copper prices perk up and keep Oil prices on a northerly course, the combination of which should continue to benefit the UK Index ’s commodity names. Housebuilders should welcome better than expected UK House prices although London was a blot.

In UK corporate news this morning: Whitbread announces retirement of Richard Baker as Chairman and appointment of Adam Crozier, former CEO of ITV. Debenhams issues profits warning after disappointing Christmas period. DCC acquires TEGA from Linde for undisclosed sum. NMC Health acquires minority stakes in Fakih IVF and As Salama Hospital. Melrose Industries says US tax law to lower 2018 tax rate to 24% and reduce tax payable on disposals from within Nortek. Costain sees FY results in-line. Saga appoints new Travel CEO amid restructuring.

US equity markets closed higher across the board on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 closing above 2700 for the first time and both the Dow Jones and Nasdaq also hitting record levels. Tech continued its 2018 outperformance thanks to strong performances for chip-makers in the wake of Intel’s woes, however Energy stocks were also supportive.

Crude Oil prices have surged to fresh highs on continued concern about political tensions in OPEC member Iran, while an overnight API inventories drawdown aids bullish sentiment .As a result, Brent Crude has climbed above $68 for the first time since May 2015, while its US equivalent has topped $62 a barrel for the first time since December 2014. The New Year-delayed official US EIA Inventories this afternoon will look to repeat the bullish API report overnight.

Gold has continued to retreat overnight, however is trading off its overnight lows as the US dollar rally slowed. The precious metal fell as low as $1306 after the greenback climbed to its highest level of the young new year, although it has since retreated from its highs. Dollar strength in the wake of US tax reforms and new leadership at the US Fed will continue to drive sentiment for the safe-haven asset.

In focus today will be a global smattering of Service PMI readings for December. Starting in Europe, Spain (8:15am) is seen recovering from a 10-month low, while Italy (8:45am) is expected unchanged. These readings are at odds with France (8:50am), which is anticipated to confirm continued retreat from October’s 6yr high, however they support German (8:55am) and Eurozone (9am) prints, both expected confirmed at multi-year highs - the former at a 2-year best, the latter at a 6-year high.

The UK (9:30am) is also seen improving, touching 54 for only the second time since April, while this afternoon’s US print (2:45pm) is forecast confirmed at its lowest level since July 2016.

Elsewhere, UK Mortgage Approvals (9:30am) are expected to fall to their lowest level since mid-2016, while US ADP Employment Change (1:15pm), a warm up for tomorrow’s US Non-Farm Payrolls, is seen unchanged in December and holding at its 12-month average of 190K. Finally, the holiday-delayed US Crude Oil Inventories (4pm) are expected to show their seventh consecutive drawdown, echoing last night's API release (fifth draw in as many  weeks).

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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