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| Yesterday’s UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Berkeley Group | 4113 | 267 | 6.9 | 46.5 |
| Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust | 444.9 | 16.3 | 3.8 | 38.8 |
| Hammerson | 526.5 | 18.5 | 3.6 | -8.1 |
| Barratt Developments | 630 | 22 | 3.6 | 36.3 |
| Lloyds Banking | 66.8 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 6.9 |
| Yesterday’s UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Intertek | 5050 | -90 | -1.8 | 45.1 |
| Rolls-Royce | 838.5 | -5 | -0.6 | 25.5 |
| Informa | 734 | -4 | -0.5 | 7.9 |
| Centrica | 144.1 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -38.5 |
| Sky | 993 | -4 | -0.4 | 0.2 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 7,394.0 | 73.2 | 1.00 | 3.5 |
| UK | 19,992.5 | 182.2 | 0.92 | 10.6 |
| FR CAC 40 | 5,399.1 | 15.2 | 0.28 | 11.0 |
| DE DAX 30 | 13,153.7 | 108.6 | 0.83 | 14.6 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 24,329.3 | 117.8 | 0.49 | 23.1 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 6,840.1 | 27.2 | 0.40 | 27.1 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,651.5 | 14.5 | 0.55 | 18.4 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 22,938.7 | 127.7 | 0.56 | 20.0 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 28,906.0 | 266.2 | 0.93 | 31.4 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,998.3 | 3.9 | 0.07 | 5.9 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 57.28 | -0.06 | -0.1 | 6.3 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 63.33 | 0.09 | 0.15 | 11.4 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1250.62 | 2.32 | 0.19 | 8.6 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 15.83 | -0.09 | -0.53 | -2.4 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.3416 | – | 0.22 | 8.6 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.1779 | – | 0.06 | 12.0 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.1389 | – | 0.15 | -2.9 |
Click graph to enlarge
UK 100 Index called to open +25pts at 7420, having broken above the 7415 barrier we highlighted last week, which opens the door for a run to the late November high of 7473. Bulls need a break above 7427 overnight, bears a breach of the 7415 breakout. Watch levels: Bullish 7430, Bearish 7415.
Calls for gains at the open come thanks to Asian equities following Wall St higher, and a GBP pullback, with the likes of HSBC already welcoming Wednesday’s Fed rate hike which may help sector peers. Miners reacted well to both the weaker USD and Friday’s China trade data, even if the nation’s inflation metrics disappointed over the weekend begging questions about global growth and credit curbs. Oil majors are also helping thanks to oil price buoyancy.
In corporate news, BAE Systems finalises £5bn contract with Qatar for 24 Typhoon combat planes. AstraZeneca says calquence shows potential in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia trials. Babcock confirms no contract revenue/profit recognition changes required for adoption of IFRS 15. Centrica says its Spirit Energy JV with Norway’s Bayerngas Energy has begun trading.
Photo-Me 1H profits boosted by higher laundry sales. Premier Oil sells 30% stake in ETS Pipeline for £23.6m. Genel Energy says production from Peshkabir field in Tawke licence (25% stake) in Kurdistan has tripled to 15K bopd /day.
US equity markets closed higher again Friday, with more record highs, helped by the US labour report, tax reform optimism and no government shut-down (albeit temporarily).
Crude Oil prices have found fresh support (US Crude $57, Brent $63.5) after Friday’s volatility to hold their OPEC/NOPEc bounce and keep alive the uptrends from July. This despite Kuwait’s Oil minister suggesting the production cut agreement may need to end in 2019 is the oil market rebalances by June.
Gold has extended Friday’s bounce from late July lows of $1244, helped by a USD pullback (consolidating some of its recent tax reform inspired rally, this week’s Fed rate hike 98% priced in) to make the yellow metal slightly cheaper for non-USD buyers. However, it has yet to get back above the prior breached support level $1252, driven more by FX than safehaven demand.
In focus today, with an almost empty macro data docket, is likely to be the week ahead with policy updates from the US Federal reserve (Weds) and both the Bank of England and ECB (Thurs). While the former is expected to hike rates, it is the outlook from the trio that may move markets.
Other major events this week include Tuesday’s Paris Climate summit, and Thurs/Fri European Leaders summit in Brussels following Friday’s last minute UK-EU Brexit progression deal (EU citizens' rights, Irish border) allowing the UK to move on to phase two (trade, transition period).
Key macro data includes UK and US inflation (Tues & Weds), UK Jobs (Weds), China Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Thurs) and US and Eurozone PMI Manufacturing (Thurs) and US Retail Sales (Thurs). All have potential to impact sentiment on both currencies (GBP, EUR, USD) and equities/indices by virtue of what it implies for corporate and consumer sentiment and global growth.
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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research