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Morning Report - 5 December 2017

Yesterday’s UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Carnival 4931 167 3.5 19.5
Sky 956 26 2.8 -3.5
Ashtead 1954 50 2.6 23.7
Barclays 194.25 4.9 2.6 -13.1
Mediclinic International LC 572 13.5 2.4 -25.8
Yesterday’s UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Fresnillo 1273 -35 -2.7 4.3
Randgold Resources 6800 -85 -1.2 6.0
Mondi 1719 -21 -1.2 3.2
NMC Health 2818 -30 -1.1 82.5
Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust 437.4 -3.2 -0.7 36.5
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 7,339.0 38.5 0.53 2.8
UK 19,936.0 81.5 0.41 10.3
FR CAC 40 5,389.3 72.4 1.36 10.8
DE DAX 30 13,058.5 197.0 1.53 13.7
US DJ Industrial Average 30 24,290.0 58.5 0.24 22.9
US Nasdaq Composite 6,775.4 -72.2 -1.05 25.9
US S&P 500 2,639.4 -2.8 -0.11 17.9
JP Nikkei 225 22,622.4 -84.8 -0.37 18.4
HK Hang Seng Index 50 28,979.4 -158.9 -0.55 31.7
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,971.8 -13.8 -0.23 5.4
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 57.43 -0.21 -0.36 6.6
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 62.36 -0.46 -0.73 9.6
Gold ($/oz) 1275.50 -7.60 -0.59 10.7
Silver ($/oz) 16.34 -0.13 -0.79 2.4
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.3449 -0.18 8.9
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.1866 -0.02 12.8
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1335 -0.15 -3.4
UK 100 Index called to open flat at 7340

UK 100 : 4-day, 30 mins

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open flat at 7340, extending yesterday’s late bounce from 7300 to break above Sunday falling highs resistance. Bulls need a break above yesterday’s late 7350 highs, Bears a break below intersecting rising support at 7335. Watch levels: Bullish 7355, Bearish 7330.

Calls for a flat start come after a very mixed finish on Wall St where US tax cut inspired sector rotation saw further dumping of Technology - profit taking, less perceived benefit - in favour of more growth sensitive and value names including Banks, Retail and materials.

This mixed performance was echoed in Asia overnight, where even improved China PMI data failed to boost sentiment, commodity prices pressured by China growth curbs and a USD Index off its lows. Brexit uncertainty buoying the UK Index via fresh GBP weakness, but oil lower weighing amid continued selling since last week’s OPEC/NOPEC extension agreement.

In corporate news, Ferguson Q1 revenues +10% with growth across all units and geographies, profits and margins rise, growth in-line since end of quarter, reiterates guidance. John Wood wins multi-million contract with GlaxoSmithKline subsidiary. Vodafone enters strategic alliance with SoftBank. UK FCA launches investigation into Provident Financial car finance unit Moneybarn. Cineworld to pay $23 cash for each Regal Entertainment common share, 43.2% premium. Victrex profits grow faster than revenues, div +15%. Northgate continues to expect our profit this year to be skewed towards the second half.

US equity markets saw a significant swing in sentiment yesterday as a broad-based Tech sell-off offset positivity after Senate Republicans passed their tax reform bill over the weekend. The Dow Jones was the only index to hold onto gains, closing at a fresh record 58 points stronger having traded as much as 300 points higher in the session. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed lower, the former touching an intraday high before closing with small losses, while the latter underperformed the wider market.

Crude Oil prices have extended their retreat from Friday’s OPEC/non-OPEC production cut extension highs as the US continues its move higher. Brent Crude falls to a 1-week low of $62.7, while its US counterpart has pared Friday’s gains, falling to $57.2. Gold continues to trade sideways after the Senate Republican tax reform bill was passed, awaiting a cue from the US dollar to break out of its current $1271-1277 range.

In focus today will be the fallout from yesterday’s failed Brexit talks as PM Theresa May tries to salvage a deal with the EU before the all-important 14-15 summit. Having seen the DUP party scupper a deal at the 11th hour yesterday on concerns of regulatory divergence between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, May now needs to head back to the table with her ‘supply and confidence’ partner to hash out differences before a potential return to Brussels tomorrow. Expect soundbites and Twitter reports aplenty, as was the case yesterday, as the complicated border talks continue.

Data-wise, a range of Service PMI prints headlines proceedings. Kicking off in Europe, mainland countries (Spain, Italy, France, Germany and headline Eurozone) are all seen further in November, while the UK retreats. This afternoon, the US equivalent is expected to be confirmed marginally higher in November. Other releases include Eurozone Retail Sales (10am), expected to retreat from a 2-year high, alongside US ISM Non-Manufacturing (3pm) falling back from a 13-year high.

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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