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Morning Report - 10 October 2017

Yesterday’s UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Reckitt Benckiser 6938 102.0 1.5 0.8
Admiral 1875 22.0 1.2 2.6
Associated British Foods 3305 33.0 1.0 20.4
Randgold Resources 7500 70.0 0.9 16.9
BAE Systems 619 5.5 0.9 4.6
Yesterday’s UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Anglo American 1431 -50.0 -3.4 23.4
Rio Tinto 3627 -83.0 -2.2 14.8
easyJet 1236 -27.0 -2.1 23.0
Antofagasta 981 -16.5 -1.7 45.3
Smith & Nephew 1370 -22.0 -1.6 12.2
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 7,507.9 -15.0 -0.20 5.1
UK 20,102.6 -63.9 -0.32 11.2
FR CAC 40 5,365.8 5.9 0.11 10.4
DE DAX 30 12,976.4 20.5 0.16 13.0
US DJ Industrial Average 30 22,761.0 -12.8 -0.06 15.2
US Nasdaq Composite 6,579.7 -10.5 -0.16 22.2
US S&P 500 2,544.7 -4.6 -0.18 13.7
JP Nikkei 225 20,812.6 121.8 0.59 8.9
HK Hang Seng Index 50 28,438.0 111.4 0.39 29.3
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,738.1 -1.2 -0.02 1.3
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 49.62 0.21 0.41 -7.9
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 55.84 0.32 0.57 -1.8
Gold ($/oz) 1288.85 3.25 0.25 11.9
Silver ($/oz) 17.06 0.07 0.4 6.9
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.3171 0.22 6.7
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.1769 0.24 11.9
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1191 -0.01 -4.6
UK 100 called to open -5pts at 7500

UK 100 : 4-day, 30-mins

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open -5pts at 7500, holding above the round number overnight after a rebound from 7485 that adds to rising lows support since 4 October. Bulls need a break above yesterday afternoon’s highs of 7510. Bears require a breach of 5-day rising lows at 7490. Watch levels: Bullish 7510, Bearish 7490.

Calls for another slightly negative open come after very mild losses on Wall St (holiday quietened session) and another mixed session in Asia, where we have a full complement of bourses following several holidays.

Japan’s Nikkei outperforms on its return from a long weekend, helped by a flat Yen despite the USD taking another leg lower. China underperforms but Hong Kong higher thanks to IT sector.

Australia’s ASX hovers around breakeven with weakness among financials and a mixed showing from Miners and their metals , with iron ore lower, zinc still rolling over but both Copper and Gold higher.

Once again, beware USD weakness representing a hindrance for the UK UK Index by way of reciprocal GBP strength. The same is true for the EUR and Germany’s DAX, especially after this morning's strong trade data.

UK Index headlines this morning include Whitbread's Costa Coffee takes full ownership of South China JV. The UK CMA is to examine Fox/Sky deal for plurality and impact on UK broadcasting standards. Ted Baker 1H profit rises as e-commerce sales rise 44%.

Capita appoints Jonathan Lewis as New CEO. Marston's FY17 sales and profits rise on wet sales. Domino's Q3 like-for-like system sales + 8.1%. Vedanta refined zinc-lead production +27%, Silver +31%, Copper +21%, record quarterly aluminium production, smelters continue to ramp up.

Oil prices trade just shy of yesterday’s highs (US Crude $50, Brent $56), buoyed by a combination of USD weakness, Saudi Arabia cutting exports crude oil allocations for November by 0.5m barrels, and positive OPEC comments about gradual market rebalancing.

Gold has extended its rebound to 1-week highs, closing in on the late September’s $1290 breakdown, helped by USD weakness and geopolitical uncertainty in several geographies. Hurdle or just a stopover?

In focus today will be August UK Industrial Production (9.30am), seen posting another month of 0.2% growth that helps the annual pace double from 0.4% to 0.8%, adding to the recovery from April’s -0.9% trough. Manufacturing may have slowed (0.2% vs 0.5% prev), keeping the 12-month growth rate firm at 1.9% YoY, while Construction Output should rebound from its weakest since March 2016, possibly further boosting sentiment towards Housebuilders.

The UK Trade Balance (also 9.30am) has potential to move GBP, especially if we get a bigger than expected narrowing of the trade deficit that would likely strengthen the UK currency to the detriment of its internationally exposed flagship UK 100 equity index. The same is true of the NIESR GDP estimate (1pm) if it improves on last month’s strongest read since February.

The Fed’s Kashkari (voter, dove, 3pm) speaks at a Regional Economic Conditions Conference in his district of Minneapolis, which may be of interest ahead of Fed minutes tomorrow and also  because many would like to see the widely experienced dovish member as next Fed Chair. Watch the already weak USD.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

 

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • CMA to Examine Fox/Sky Deal for Plurality and Impact on UK Broadcasting Standards
  • Whitbread's Costa Coffee Takes Full Ownership of South China Joint Venture
  • Domino's Pizza Sales Rise 21% in Third Quarter
  • Marston's FY17 Sales and Profit Rise on Wet Sales
  • Ted Baker 1H Profit Rises as E-Commerce Sales Rose 44%
  • Capita Appoints Jonathan Lewis as New CEO
  • Vedanta record aluminium production
  • BofA Merrill Lynch Places 61m Pets at Home Shares for KKR

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