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| Yesterday’s UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Mondi | 2014 | 32.0 | 1.6 | 20.9 |
| Smurfit Kappa | 2396 | 36.0 | 1.5 | 27.2 |
| Royal Mail | 421.2 | 6.1 | 1.5 | -8.9 |
| ConvaTec | 319.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 36.5 |
| Reckitt Benckiser | 7784 | 97.0 | 1.3 | 13.0 |
| Yesterday’s UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| United Utilities | 867.5 | -31.0 | -3.5 | -3.7 |
| Next | 3856 | -120.0 | -3.0 | -22.6 |
| Royal Bank of Scotland | 247.2 | -5.7 | -2.3 | 10.1 |
| Marks & Spencer | 333.3 | -7.2 | -2.1 | -4.8 |
| Severn Trent | 2182 | -43.0 | -1.9 | -1.8 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 7,312.7 | -37.6 | -0.51 | 2.4 |
| UK | 19,340.2 | -6.2 | -0.03 | 7.0 |
| FR CAC 40 | 5,120.7 | -33.7 | -0.65 | 5.3 |
| DE DAX 30 | 12,325.0 | -91.1 | -0.73 | 7.4 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 21,349.8 | 62.8 | 0.29 | 8.0 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 6,140.4 | -3.9 | -0.06 | 14.1 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,423.4 | 3.7 | 0.15 | 8.2 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 20,070.9 | 37.5 | 0.19 | 5.0 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 25,782.3 | 17.7 | 0.07 | 17.2 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,691.8 | -29.7 | -0.52 | 0.5 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 46.21 | 0.80 | 1.75 | 7.1 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 48.87 | 0.73 | 1.53 | 6.9 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1237.85 | -3.55 | -0.29 | -1.6 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 16.59 | -0.03 | -0.2 | -0.5 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.2995 | – | -0.24 | 2.2 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.1414 | – | -0.14 | 2.0 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.1386 | – | -0.10 | 0.2 |
Click graph to enlarge
UK 100 Index called to open +15pts at 7325, holding a 7320-7340 sideways channel since Friday’s close. Bulls cheer the index remaining above 7300 after last week’s sell-off. Bears highlight 2-day falling highs resistance at 7340 and Friday’s breach of 7-month rising support. Bulls need a break above 7350 to overcome falling highs and get back above the 7-month trendline. Bears are on the lookout for a break below 7320 for a test of 7300. Watch levels: Bullish 7350, Bearish 7320.
Calls for gains at the European open come after a largely positive close on Wall St and despite a mixed session for Asia overnight with both equities and fixed income fighting for fresh traction into the new week, month, quarter and semester.
Further gains for Oil is helping, along with key base metals following a return to growth (3-month high) for a private China PMI Manufacturing survey. A still strong GBP and EUR warrant continued close attention in terms of UK Index and DAX hindrance.
Japan’s Nikkei outperforms with mild gains thanks to Yen weakness at odds with positive corporate survey data, although a USD off its lows and PM Abe’s surprise defeat in Tokyo elections (no confidence vote?) may go some way to explain. Australia’s ASX is underperforming with losses of 0.7%, despite higher Oil prices and China data supportive of commodities after weak Building approvals data and Media suffering from the end of an M&A story.
US Markets closed mixed on Friday with Tech again underperforming to drag the Nasdaq lower and markets trying to decipher mixed data after Chicago PMI’s big jump. Energy outperformed thanks to Oil’s continued gains after the Baker Hughes rig count posted its first drop - albeit very slight - in 24 weeks.
Crude Oil prices have extended their rebound gains to 10% developing a fresh rising channel in stark contrast to the 10-month falling one they struggled to break out of for most of June. A Baker Hughes rig count decline has helped Brent test $49 and US Crude $46.5.
Gold has lost more ground, falling below $1240 to test 2017 rising lows support, on account of a stronger USD and higher bond yields increasing the cost of holding the non-yielding asset.
In focus today, after China Caixin PMI manufacturing returned to growth overnight, will be June PMI Manufacturing prints for the Eurozone, UK and US. Consensus expects the Eurozone (8-9am)to confirm small gains in June (Spain, Italy and France all higher) to fresh 7yr highs, although Germany likely edged back further from the 7yr highs it hit back in May.
In contrast, the UK (9.30am) and US (2.45pm) may have given up a little ground. And while the former had risen to around 3yr highs the latter would confirm a six-month downtrend. That said, US ISM Manufacturing is forecast to hold firm, well above breakeven, even if the inflation component (prices paid) garners more attention given a run of weak US data at odds with a rate-hiking Fed.
The Fed’s Bullard (non-voter, dovish 9.30 am) delivers the keynote address at the Applications of Behavioural Economics, and Multiple Equilibrium Models to Macroeconomic Policy Conference in London. Last week he said the Fed’s should wait before hiking again for better data and reforms from Washington.
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