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Morning Report - 2 June 2017

Yesterday’s UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Paddy Power Betfair 8420 350.0 4.3 -4.1
3i Group 927 32.0 3.6 31.7
ConvaTec Group 330.8 10.8 3.4 41.4
Micro Focus International 2460 66.0 2.8 12.9
Rolls-Royce Group 885.5 18.0 2.1 32.6
Yesterday’s UK Index Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Taylor Wimpey 190 -13.1 -6.5 23.8
National Grid 1050 -39.5 -3.6 1.1
Mediclinic International 781 -27.5 -3.4 1.3
ITV 191.6 -4.1 -2.1 -7.2
Persimmon 2404 -51.0 -2.1 35.4
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 7,543.8 23.8 0.32 5.6
UK 20,010.6 38.4 0.19 10.7
FR CAC 40 5,318.7 35.0 0.66 9.4
DE DAX 30 12,664.9 49.8 0.40 10.3
US DJ Industrial Average 30 21,144.3 135.5 0.64 7.0
US Nasdaq Composite 6,246.8 48.3 0.78 16.0
US S&P 500 2,430.1 18.3 0.76 8.5
JP Nikkei 225 20,208.7 348.6 1.76 5.7
HK Hang Seng Index 50 25,913.8 104.6 0.41 17.8
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,790.8 52.7 0.92 2.2
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 47.95 -1.01 -2.05 -5.8
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 50.27 -0.97 -1.89 -6.6
Gold ($/oz) 1262.55 -4.55 -0.36 0.6
Silver ($/oz) 17.16 -0.05 -0.28 1.9
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.2875 -0.09 -1.2
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.1218 0.04 0.1
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1477 -0.14 -1.3
UK 100 called to open +40pts at 7585

UK 100 : 4-day; 15 minutes

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)  

UK 100 Index called to open +40pts at 7585 following a strong overnight rally from 7545. A breakout from the ceiling of Thursday’s rising channel has helped the index to highs of 7597 overnight, its highest ever out of hours mark. Despite breaking its overnight rally to test support at 7585, Bulls will be hoping former all-time highs at 7585 hold to mount a fresh charge above and beyond overnight highs, while Bears will be looking for that level to give way for a retracement to rising support around 7565. Watch levels: Bullish 7595, Bearish 7580.

A positive opening call at fresh record highs comes courtesy of positive leads from the US and Asia, with all three major stateside bourses notching record closing highs while Japan’s Nikkei trades above 20,000 points for the first time since 2015. This fresh investor bullishness stems from a significant beat for US private sector jobs yesterday (253k vs 180k expected), raising hopes that today’s Non-Farm Payrolls print will also surprise to the upside to seal a June rate hike by the Fed.

US rate hike optimism is helping to offset weakness in Crude oil as global benchmark Brent falls below $50 for the first time since 10 May, although note Iron Ore trading 1% higher overnight to halt this week’s 17% sell-off, while investors also react to President Trump withdrawing the US from the Paris Climate Change Agreement, joining Nicaragua and Syria as the only countries to do so.

UK politics will remain a driver with less than a week to go until voting opens, with Sterling remaining under pressure. The latest polls will likely keep FX traders on their toes as markets assess whether the Labour comeback reflects genuine concern of a smaller Conservative parliamentary majority going into Brexit negotiations.

Asian equity markets are trading higher overnight, with most markets (ex-China) trading at yearly or even all-time highs. Japan’s Nikkei is trading above 20,000 points for the first time since 2015, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is also at a high not seen for two years. Other notable performance come from South Korea's Kospi (record high) and Taiwan (17-year high), while Australia's ASX is on course for a fourth straight day of gains.

A record Thursday for US equity markets saw the Dow Jones, S&P500 and the Nasdaq all close at record highs. A stronger than expected private jobs report helped the three major bourses climb throughout the day, with investors expecting a similar beat for today's Non-Farm Payrolls print. Should it do so, it all but confirms a June rate hike from the Fed, a fact not lost on the Financial sector, which stemmed losses from earlier in the week to lead the S&P and lift the Dow 0.7% higher.

Crude Oil prices have broken through support in early trading, as a stronger than expected drawdown in US inventories fails to abate fears of global oversupply. Brent Crude has fallen through $50 for the first time since 10 May, while US crude trades below $48. Amidst the rally in equities, safe-haven asset Gold has fallen back to trade at $1260 support. Bulls will be eyeing a bounce back to Wednesday’s $1272 highs, while bears will be hoping for a breakdown and retracement to rising lows support at $1220.

In focus today will be the May US Jobs Report (1:30pm), the final release before the Fed’s June meeting at which policymakers are widely expected to hike interest rates for the second time in 2017 and third time since December. The eagerly awaited Non-Farm Payrolls print will be looking to repeat yesterday’s blowout ADP Employment Change figures (253K vs 185K exp.) to all but seal a June rate hike. As always, Average Hourly Earnings will also be keenly watched for signs of wage inflation (2.6% exp. vs 2.5% prev.) while headline Unemployment is expected to remain at a 10-year low.

Elsewhere, UK Construction PMI (9:30am) is seen slowing from April’s 2017 high, adding to Housebuilders’ woes after yesterday’s disappointing house price data, while Eurozone PPI (10am) is expected to repeat February’s highest reading since end-2011 after falling back in March.

A double helping of voting Fed members after the European market close headlines today’s speakers, with hawk Harker (5:45pm; Q&A at Pennsylvania Economic Association 2017 Conference) and centrist Kaplan (6pm; Q&A at the City of Addison Economic Development Luncheon in Dallas). Expect NFP reactions to influence USD.

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • UK's Metro Bank buys mortgage portfolio from Cerberus Capital
  • Oil prices drop amid glut concerns, U.S. withdrawal from climate deal
  • Old Mutual Wealth Completes Acquisition of Financial Adviser Network Caerus
  • British Airways I.T. outage caused by contractor who switched off power – Times
  • Inmarsat says Qatar Airways to offer its GX Aviation in – flight broadband service
  • Plus500 board approves share buyback programme of up to $10m
  • Plus500 says current trading revenue stronger than Q1
  • GSK says ViiV Healthcare submits 2 – drug HIV regimen application to EMA,U.S. FDA
  • B&M shareholders CD&R and SSA sell 12.5% stake at 363.4p/share
  • Revolution Bars names Mike Foster as CFO
  • BHP says restarts Australia iron ore mine after fire
  • Acacia sticks by FY production guidance as Tanzanian probe continues
  • Avea, Vodafone win Turkish infrastructure tender – Turk Telekom
  • Gold hits 1 – wk low as stocks, dollar gain after upbeat U.S. data
  • Copper and nickel drop on demand worries, investor shift to equities

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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