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| Friday’s UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Informa | 688.5 | 38.0 | 5.8 | 1.3 |
| Johnson Matthey | 3175 | 80.0 | 2.6 | -0.2 |
| Rolls-Royce Group | 873 | 21.5 | 2.5 | 30.7 |
| British American Tobacco | 5591 | 96.0 | 1.8 | 21.0 |
| Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust | 400 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 24.8 |
| Friday’s UK Index Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Lloyds Banking Group | 71.74 | -1.4 | -1.9 | 14.8 |
| Shire | 4651.5 | -86.5 | -1.8 | -0.7 |
| United Utilities Group | 1035 | -19.0 | -1.8 | 14.9 |
| Royal Bank of Scotland Group | 261.6 | -4.4 | -1.7 | 16.5 |
| DCC | 7290 | -120.0 | -1.6 | 20.7 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 7,547.6 | 29.9 | 0.40 | 5.7 |
| UK | 20,025.0 | 57.3 | 0.29 | 10.8 |
| FR CAC 40 | 5,336.6 | -0.5 | -0.01 | 9.8 |
| DE DAX 30 | 12,602.2 | -19.5 | -0.15 | 9.8 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 21,080.3 | -2.8 | -0.01 | 6.7 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 6,210.2 | 4.9 | 0.08 | 15.4 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,415.8 | 0.8 | 0.03 | 7.9 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 19,678.1 | -4.5 | -0.02 | 2.9 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 25,701.6 | 62.4 | 0.24 | 16.8 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,723.0 | 15.9 | 0.28 | 1.0 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 49.84 | -0.14 | -0.27 | -2.1 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 52.17 | -0.07 | -0.13 | -3.1 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1270.35 | 0.65 | 0.05 | 1.2 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 17.43 | 0.05 | 0.27 | 3.5 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.2813 | – | -0.01 | -1.7 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.1129 | – | 0.00 | -0.7 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.1513 | – | -0.01 | -1.0 |
UK 100 Index called to open -15pts at 7530, having traded sideways around last week's record highs in a tight 7540-7555 range on Monday, however has broken down from 7540 support overnight. Having attempted to recover from 7530, the index is once again facing downward pressure as we move into the open. Bulls will be hoping for a strong opening to take the index back above former support at 7540 and towards fresh record highs, while Bears will be hoping for an immediate breakdown of 7530 & 7325 support to complete a bearish flag pattern to 7515. Watch levels: Bullish 7540, Bearish 7525.
A negative opening call comes as European and US traders return after their extended weekend to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Eurozone (Greece debt repayment, Italian elections, ECB dovishness), UK (election ‘debate’ & polls), Asia (yet another North Korea missile test) and the US (Trump’s return to Washington). The US dollar opening sharply higher, alongside Crude Oil prices failing to return to May highs following last week’s OPEC deal, has left commodities mixed overnight.
ECB Chief Mario Draghi on Monday reiterated his belief that QE needs to be maintained to support the Eurozone economy, leaving the Euro on the backfoot while inspiring fresh US dollar strength, and, with only a week to go until the UK’s General Election, we continue to keep a close eye on the polls to see whether Labour can continue to close the gap on the Conservatives to place further pressure on GBP.
In corporate news, we note RBS' out of court settlement with shareholders seeking legal action over its 2008 cash call, avoiding a potentially damaging court appearance from former chief Fred Goodwin, while IAG have endured a tough bank holiday weekend after a local IT outage delayed thousands of passengers.
Crude Oil prices are trading a touch higher after last week’s OPEC production cut extension, however are struggling to overcome resistance at $52.50 (Brent) and $50 (US). Brent is holding above support at $52 while its US counterpart remains above $49.50. Gold trades a fresh May high as politics in Europe and the US remains in the driving seat for investor sentiment, moving above $1270 for the first time since the first of the month - despite fresh US dollar strength - on increased safe haven seeking.
In focus today will be US Personal Income and Spending figures (1:30pm), kicking off a busy, shortened week for US macroeconomic data - concluding with the latest Jobs Report on Friday - which may influence the Fed ahead of their June meeting in a fortnight’s time. Income is expected to recover from March’s lowest level since November while Spending surges to its highest level in 2017, having stagnated over the past two months.
Elsewhere, Eurozone Confidence indicators (10am) are expected mixed, with Economic, Business and Industrial indicators all improving, while Services and headline Consumer Confidence remain unchanged. This afternoon, German CPI (1pm) is expected to slow once again following April’s slight recovery, while US Consumer Confidence (3pm) gives up some ground and the US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (3:30pm) continues to fall from February’s 6-year high reading.
After Mario Draghi’s dovish comments yesterday (calls to maintain extraordinary policy measures), speakers today include the ECB’s Liikanen (10:15am), colleague Nowotny (5pm) and the Fed’s Brainard (6pm; dovish voter).
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