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| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Sainsbury (J) PLC | 267.4 | 12.8 | 5.0 | 7.3 |
| easyJet PLC | 1117 | 53.0 | 5.0 | 11.1 |
| Royal Bank of Scotland Group (The) PLC | 235.7 | 11.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| Next PLC | 4321 | 134.0 | 3.2 | -13.3 |
| International Consolidated Airlines Group SA | 542.5 | 14.0 | 2.7 | 23.0 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Burberry Group PLC | 1566 | -135.0 | -7.9 | 4.6 |
| Fresnillo PLC | 1545 | -47.0 | -3.0 | 26.5 |
| Randgold Resources Ltd | 7155 | -215.0 | -2.9 | 11.5 |
| Royal Dutch Shell PLC | 2067 | -58.0 | -2.7 | -12.2 |
| Severn Trent PLC | 2357 | -55.0 | -2.3 | 6.1 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 7,114.4 | -33.1 | -0.46 | -0.4 |
| UK | 19,417.8 | 119.9 | 0.62 | 7.4 |
| FR CAC 40 | 5,003.7 | 13.5 | 0.27 | 2.9 |
| DE DAX 30 | 12,016.5 | 16.1 | 0.13 | 4.7 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 20,404.5 | -118.8 | -0.58 | 3.3 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 5,863.0 | 13.6 | 0.23 | 8.9 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,338.2 | -4.0 | -0.17 | 4.4 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 18,454.6 | 22.4 | 0.12 | -3.5 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 23,916.3 | 90.4 | 0.38 | 8.7 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,816.2 | 12.2 | 0.21 | 2.7 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 51.00 | -1.03 | -1.97 | 0.3 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 53.13 | -1.36 | -2.49 | -1.1 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1280.55 | -0.85 | -0.07 | 2.3 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 18.14 | -0.05 | -0.29 | -0.8 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.2804 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 2.1 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.0726 | 0.00 | 0.1 | 0.6 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.1937 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1.5 |
UK 100 Index called to open -10pts at 7105, with an overnight rebound from 2017 lows and pivotal support at 7090 finding resistance at 7120 on account of falling highs since Tuesday afternoon. Whilst the index has held above 7100 since midnight, note the aforementioned falling highs also preventing any bettering of 7110 over the last hour. Bulls, noting an oversold RSI, are looking for a break above 7120 overnight highs to give hopes of a reversal back towards 7400. Bears want to see 7100 give way in order for 7090 to be troubled again to increase the probability of bigger declines. Watch levels: Bullish 7120, Bearish 7090.
Calls for another negative open come after a mixed session on Wall St and in spite of a decent performance in Asia overnight. Blame can be pinned on another drop in oil prices which will likely put another dent in the UK Index via disproportionately influential Oil Majors, with a negative read across for a commodity sector still troubled by lower metals prices and global growth uncertainty. Geopolitics is also keeping market guessing ahead of this weekend’s too tough to call first round French presidential election.
Cautious trade in Asia sees Australia’s ASX is outperforming in spite of Energy sector weakness while gains, something that is offsetting strength in financials, hopes of strong results from Canon and a weaker Yen to keep Japan’s Nikkei around breakeven.
US equity markets were mixed on Wednesday as Energy names weighed on blue-chip indices, while the Tech-focused Nasdaq avoided losses to close higher. The Dow Jones was led lower by underperformance from IBM on account of weak Q1 results and the crude oil price slide hurting oil major Chevron, while the S&P500’s Energy sector was the index’s greatest laggard.
Crude Oil prices have found support overnight following yesterday’s 3% slide for global benchmarks. The sell off came as US EIA inventories report noted US crude oil production reached its highest level since August 2015, offsetting the bullish impact of the first back-to-back weekly drawdowns in inventories. Investors will be hoping a weaker US dollar or talks of an extension to OPEC-led production cuts could inspire a further recovery from lows of $52.60 and $50.50 for Brent and US benchmarks respectively, although note the potential emergence of bearish flag patterns.
Gold price has fallen further from its recent 5-month high as the US dollar attempts to recover from Tuesday’s 3-week lows, however is retaining support around $1278 as geopolitics remains at the fore. Investors in the precious metal will have one eye on the performance of the global reserve currency following strength in its European counterparts earlier in the week, while the other will be focused on the latest news from the French presidential race, the Korean Peninsula and Syria.
In focus today will be continued analysis of this weekend's French first round Presidential election as well as preparations and polls for our own UK snap general election in early June.
Data-wise, we have nothing until this afternoon when we get the US Philly Fed, forecast to give up yet more ground in April after February’s 33yr high, taking us back closer to levels seen in Jan. Thereafter, the US Leading Index is expected to see its pace of growth slow in March. Closer to home, Eurozone Consumer Confidence for March is expected to confirm improvement in March, getting back its levels from the turn of the year and best in around 2 years.
Speakers include the Fed’s Powell alongside European Commission Vice President Dombrovskis in a Q&A discussing "Capital Markets, Growth & the Economy of Tomorrow" at the "Global Finance Forum" held in Washington. Bank of England Governor Carney is also in Washington, participating at events by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) and Bank of France.
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