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| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| ITV PLC | 218.9 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 6.1 |
| Land Securities Group PLC | 1059 | 32.0 | 3.1 | -0.7 |
| British Land Co PLC | 610 | 17.5 | 3.0 | -3.1 |
| Intu Properties PLC | 279.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | -0.8 |
| Pearson PLC | 682.5 | 14.5 | 2.2 | -16.6 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Old Mutual PLC | 200.6 | -16.3 | -7.5 | -3.2 |
| Mediclinic International PLC | 712 | -47.0 | -6.2 | -7.7 |
| Anglo American PLC | 1219.5 | -43.0 | -3.4 | 5.1 |
| BHP Billiton PLC | 1234 | -36.5 | -2.9 | -5.6 |
| Smurfit Kappa Group PLC | 2121 | -56.0 | -2.6 | 12.6 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 7,322.9 | -46.6 | -0.63 | 2.5 |
| UK | 18,971.8 | -40.1 | -0.21 | 5.0 |
| FR CAC 40 | 5,122.5 | 32.9 | 0.65 | 5.4 |
| DE DAX 30 | 12,312.9 | 56.5 | 0.46 | 7.3 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 20,663.3 | -65.3 | -0.31 | 4.6 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 5,911.7 | -2.6 | -0.04 | 9.8 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,362.7 | -5.3 | -0.23 | 5.5 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 18,999.4 | 90.1 | 0.48 | -0.6 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 24,195.6 | 84.0 | 0.35 | 10.0 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,872.7 | 7.8 | 0.13 | 3.7 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 50.64 | 0.41 | 0.81 | 5.2 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 53.51 | 0.47 | 0.89 | 4.9 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1248.75 | -2.85 | -0.23 | 0.4 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 18.22 | -0.06 | -0.31 | 2.5 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.2540 | 0.00 | -0.04 | 0.6 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.0669 | 0.00 | 0.03 | -1.2 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.1753 | 0.00 | -0.08 | 1.8 |
Click graph to enlarge
UK 100 Index called to open +20pts at 7345, having rebounded from 7320 to deliver a bullish breakout beyond Thursday’s falling highs. This offers potential for a rally back towards last week’s 7385 highs, possibly even record highs of 7448. Bulls require a break above Friday’s late 7350 highs; Bears need a breach of overnight rising lows at 7335. Watch levels: Bullish 7350, Bearish 7335.
Calls for a positive open come after a solid start to the new week, month and quarter by Asian bourses, overcoming Friday’s negative US finish. Note Germany’s DAX forecast to outperform its UK counterpart thanks to the EUR turning lower against the USD, in contrast to GBP holding up well, to offer an FX hindrance on the UK Index along with lower metals prices after a disappointing China Caixin PMI Manufacturing.
This week will be all about reappraisal of the Trump trade into the new quarter and whether sufficient optimism and momentum remains given the event risk associated with this week’s meeting between Chinese President Xi and Trump, Fed minutes this Wednesday and the US Jobs report on Friday. Oh, and all the political risk build up to the end-month first round of the French Presidential election and any further developments on the Brexit negotiation front.
Japan’s Nikkei outperforms in spite of Yen strength thanks to Tankan manufacturing data suggesting March improvements even if PMI gave up ground. Australia’s ASX may be higher, Energy benefiting from buoyancy in oil after last week’s jumps (bullish flags?). Hampering sentiment, however, is the likes of Copper and Iron ore having dropped back to test recent support.
US equity markets closed the final trading session of Q1 slightly weaker as investors digested a raft of macroeconomic data for the world’s largest economy which came in slightly softer than expectations. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 both closed lower as Financial stocks lagged on both indices, while oil company ExxonMobil also weighed on the former. Whilst the Nasdaq also closed weaker, the tech-focused index outperformed its peers finishing just shy of flat.
An indifferent reaction to the 11th consecutive Baker Hughes Rig Count increase saw Crude Oil prices reach their highest level since 9 March (Brent $53.80); US $50.90) as continued speculation that OPEC may seek to extend their production cut beyond June alongside reports that global crude stockpiles are declining helped bullish appetite. Investors will be keeping their eyes and ears peeled for any further emerging OPEC-cut extension rhetoric, while the US dollar will also be of interest.
Gold has surrendered some of the gains made during Friday afternoon’s rally as the precious metal fails to overcome 8-month falling highs resistance at $1249 once again. While the US dollar remains a little way off Fridays 2-week highs, rising lows support may see the greenback mount a second charge to regain some of its Fed-inspired losses from March, which would in turn hamper bullish prospects for the dollar-denominated safe haven asset.
In focus today will be Eurozone PMI Manufacturing for March (final prints; 8.45-9am), with France, Germany and the Eurozone seen confirming improvements; France back around 5yr highs, Germany and the Eurozone both close to a 6yr best. Note Italy expected to hold flat around 14-month highs.
Closer to home, UK PMI Manufacturing (9.30am) is forecast to have edged lower in March, back to its lowest since the August 2016 rebound following last July‘s Brexit inspired slump.
Eurozone Producer Price Inflation (10am) probably slowed in Feb but accelerated further annually, to its fastest since early 2012. Regional Unemployment may also inch lower towards 8yr lows.
This afternoon, US PMI Manufacturing (2.45pm) will likely be confirmed in retreat from recent highs for a second straight month, like the UK. The ISM equivalent (3pm) may show a lagged peaking with its first down month since August, although Prices Paid, New Orders and Employment may garner more attention. US Construction Spending (3pm) is forecast rebounding from a weak Jan.
Speakers today include the Fed’s Dudley (voter, dove, 2.30pm) who speaks about “household borrowing, student debt trends and the impact of student debt and educational attainment on homeownership”. This evening the Fed’s Harker (voter, hawk, 7pm) speaks about Fintech in Philadelphia while colleague Lacker (non-voter, hawk, 9pm) gives a speech entitled "From 'Real Bills' to 'Too Big to Fail'.
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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
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