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Morning Report - 7 March 2017

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Standard Life PLC 400 21.5 5.7 7.5
Dixons Carphone PLC 303.6 5.8 2.0 -14.4
Taylor Wimpey PLC 186.1 3.1 1.7 21.2
Schroders PLC 3119 48.0 1.6 4.0
ConvaTec Group PLC 255 3.9 1.6 9.0
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Glencore PLC 326.5 -11.8 -3.5 17.7
Anglo American PLC 1238 -34.5 -2.7 6.7
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (The) PLC 240.6 -6.4 -2.6 7.1
WPP Group PLC 1720 -39.0 -2.2 -5.3
Antofagasta PLC 802 -18.0 -2.2 18.8
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 7,350.1 -24.1 -0.33 2.9
UK 18,881.4 -1.5 -0.01 4.5
FR CAC 40 4,972.2 -22.9 -0.46 2.3
DE DAX 30 11,958.4 -69.0 -0.57 4.2
US DJ Industrial Average 30 20,954.3 -51.5 -0.25 6.0
US Nasdaq Composite 5,849.2 -21.6 -0.37 8.7
US S&P 500 2,375.3 -7.8 -0.33 6.1
JP Nikkei 225 19,344.2 -35.0 -0.18 1.2
HK Hang Seng Index 50 23,672.2 75.9 0.32 7.6
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,761.4 14.9 0.26 1.7
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 53.22 0.00 0 -1.7
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 55.98 0.19 0.33 -0.2
Gold ($/oz) 1226.20 -8.80 -0.71 -2.6
Silver ($/oz) 17.80 -0.20 -1.11 -3.2
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.2239 -0.01 -0.45 -1.8
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.0579 0.00 -0.4 0.3
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1569 0.00 -0.05 -2.1
UK 100 called to open +15pts

UK 100 : 2-week; hourly

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open +15pts at 7365, having extended yesterday’s bounce from 7340 to revisit 7370 overnight. Rising lows since yesterday afternoon bode well for Bulls hoping for another flirt with 7400. Bears flag limited progress beyond 7365 overnight and the breach of a supportive trendline since  yesterday afternoon. Bulls, however, counter that the level is holding up, so far. Bulls need a break above 7370; Bears need a breach of 7360. Watch levels: Bullish 7375, Bearish 7355.

Calls for gains at the open are in spite of a negative US close but in line with a largely positive session in Asia overnight. Sentiment buoyed by US futures rallying from their lows, as well as a USD rally putting helpful pressure on GBP (back to Friday’s lows) for the UK Index ’s international contingent, although fresh EUR strength means Germany’s DAX underperforming.

Japan’s Nikkei is the lone loser in Asia, albeit only just offside on account of a resilient Yen and oil prices off their highs hampering Energy. Australia’s ASX is boosted by healthcare sector agins, but watch the Miners with BHP in the red by 1% after talk of Chile’s presidential hopeful urging striking miners to refuse a poor contract offer.

UK Index sentiment may be impacted by corporate results. Direct Line Group has halved its dividend after changes in compensation discount rates. Intertek sees good organic revenue growth and moderate margin expansion in 2017. Worldpay also sees moderate margin expansion in 2017; guidance is unchanged. Ashtead looks to have lowered its 2017 earnings expectations. Paddy Power Betfair earnings were lifted by sportsbook betting and its 2017 outlook is in line with views.

US equity markets rallied from intraday lows into the close yesterday, however still began the week in the red as investors prepare for a Fed rate hike next week, while spicy geopolitics and incoming Trump policies (but still no outlining of fiscal policy) add to uncertainty. The Dow Jones saw insurance giant The Travelers underperform, while Financials and Materials names held back the S&P 500.

Note the Nasdaq underperformed on Monday, with the tech-focused index down 0.4% as Snap Inc. shares fell over 12%, in a stark reversal from the optimism of the company’s debut last week.

Crude Oil prices are engineering a recovery having touched one month lows last week as the tug of war between OPEC and US producers continues. An emerging trend of rising lows support is helping to keep prices off Thursday’s lows, however gains are capped as a stronger USD is hampering investor demand for the black stuff.

Gold price is holding up above $1225 having continued its March downtrend as investors look ahead to next week’s meeting of the US Federal Reserve. A stronger USD has seen the precious metal fall back from yesterday’s challenge of the channel ceiling, while any further uptick in the greenback could see current support give way for a revisit of $1220 and beyond.

In focus today, UK Halifax House Prices are seen perking up to 0.4% MoM in Feb after Jan’s slowdown (-0.9%), although the 5.3% annual pace is seen slowing further from Jan’s 5.7% and Dec’s peak. Keep an eye on the Housebuilders which may react.

The final reading for Eurozone Q4 GDP is expected confirmed at 0.4% QoQ, up slightly from Q3’s 0.3%, and the Year-on-Year print firm at 1.7%, although these are both a touch slower than the first estimate from late Jan.

The House of Lords are today expected to add another amendment to the Article 50 Brexit bill before handing it back to the House of Commons next week (13 Mar), dealing Theresa May’s government a second parliamentary defeat in as many weeks. The proposal would allow both the Houses a final vote on the terms of the Brexit ‘deal’, in essence giving both MPs and peers a meaningful vote as well as the option to veto in a move seen limiting the PM’s manoeuvrability.

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Oil prices hold steady for third day; eyes on economic data
  • London copper sits near four – week trough as stocks weigh
  • Worldpay reports FY transactions of 14.9bn vs. 13.1bn
  • UK's Worldpay FY profit beats on e – commerce boost
  • Paysafe reports adjusted EBITDA of $301m, exceeds $1bn in revenue for first time
  • UK bank Shawbrook rejects improved $1bn buyout proposal
  • Direct Line FY operating profit hit by discount rate change
  • Amec Foster Wheeler gets 5 – yr deal with Shell Global Solutions International
  • Intertek total dividend up 19.3% at 62.4 pence per share
  • Paddy Power Betfair seeing zero impact from Brexit
  • Paddy Power Betfair FY earnings up 35%, 2017 in line with expectations
  • British equipment hire firm Ashtead results on track after Q3 profit rise
  • Just Eat full – year adjusted earnings rise 93%
  • Interserve names Debbie White as CEO
  • Aggreko Plc FY profit before tax falls
  • Ashtead group plc posts Q3 underlying EPS 23p
  • BHP Billiton says unit updates on cash tender results
  • Sports Direct says Agent Provocateur bought by firm in which it owns 25%
  • John Laing posts FY pretax profit of £192.1m
  • Grafton FY profit up 12%, sees further growth desite Brexit pressures
  • Spain's Santander sells 25% of Allfunds for 470m euros
  • Shell says has signed agreements on the separation of Motiva
  • Tata Motors' Jaguar Land Rover Feb total retail sales up 9.3%
  • Gold inches lower amid Fed rate hike expectations

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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