This report is not a personal recommendation and does not take into account your personal circumstances or appetite for risk.
| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Old Mutual PLC | 225.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 8.8 |
| Standard Life PLC | 378.5 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| CRH PLC | 2885 | 45.0 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Merlin Entertainments PLC | 488.1 | 6.1 | 1.3 | 8.8 |
| BHP Billiton PLC | 1362.5 | 16.5 | 1.2 | 4.3 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| WPP Group PLC | 1759 | -152.0 | -8.0 | -3.1 |
| Fresnillo PLC | 1413 | -42.0 | -2.9 | 15.7 |
| Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC | 2126 | -59.0 | -2.7 | 12.3 |
| Paddy Power Betfair PLC | 8720 | -165.0 | -1.9 | -0.6 |
| Whitbread PLC | 3771 | -70.0 | -1.8 | -0.1 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 7,374.3 | -8.1 | -0.11 | 3.2 |
| UK | 18,883.0 | -68.0 | -0.36 | 4.5 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,995.1 | 31.3 | 0.63 | 2.7 |
| DE DAX 30 | 12,027.4 | -32.2 | -0.27 | 4.8 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 21,005.8 | 2.8 | 0.01 | 6.3 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 5,870.8 | 9.5 | 0.16 | 9.1 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,383.1 | 1.2 | 0.05 | 6.4 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 19,379.1 | -90.0 | -0.46 | 1.4 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 23,622.5 | 69.8 | 0.30 | 7.4 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,746.5 | 16.9 | 0.30 | 1.4 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 53.16 | 0.48 | 0.91 | -1.9 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 55.60 | 0.55 | 1 | -0.7 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1235.00 | -4.90 | -0.4 | -2.0 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 18.00 | -0.37 | -2.01 | -2.7 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.2295 | 0.00 | 0.18 | -1.4 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.0621 | 0.00 | 1.08 | 0.5 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.1575 | 0.00 | -0.91 | -1.9 |
Click graph to enlarge
UK 100 Index called to open -15pts at 7360, but triple rising support (ranging from 2-weeks to 2-months) at 7335 offers hope for the Bulls that last week’s flirt with 7400 all-time highs can be repeated. Bears, however, like the fact that the index has already eased back from 7365 having closed the weekend’s gap-down. Bulls are looking for a break above 7365 while Bears eye a test of 7340. Watch levels: Bullish 7375, Bearish 7340.
Calls for a negative open follow a flattish Wall Street finish on Friday and a mixed session overnight in Asia to start the new trading week. Geopolitics remains to the fore with North Korean sabre-rattling, China trimming its GDP growth estimate, Trump accusing Obama of pre-election wiretapping and Fillon refusing to throw in the towel to keep the French Presidential election nice and entertaining.
Japan’s Nikkei is underperforming in Asia, weighed down by a Yen strength engineered by a USD sell-off and some alternative safehaven seeking, while financials and utilities drag. Hong Kong gains thanks to Casino’s while China outperforms as the National People's Congress kicks off.
Australia’s ASX is posting solid gains thanks to its Mining contingent. This is in spite of lower metals and oil prices, investors perhaps hoping that potential for a bearish flag on the US Dollar index comes true (Yellen less hawkish on Friday?), delivering a welcome FX boost, despite rising probability of a Fed rate hike mid-month.
UK Index sentiment is sure to be be affected by an £11bn merger of Standard Life (SL) and Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN) to create an investment powerhouse. Banks may also be moved by Deutsche Bank’s €8bn capital increase aimed at putting it “back on the front foot”. BT has secured exclusive rights to broadcast all UEFA Champions League and Europa League matches in the UK through 2020/21 for £394m while Informa says it is set for further progress in 2017 after posting 2016 underlying profits growth.
US equity markets finished the week on a rather flat note following Snap’s IPO excitement, however the well-received listing buoyed technology names, helping the tech-focused Nasdaq to outperform peers, up 0.2%. Both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 closed flat, with retailers Nike and Wal-Mart dragging on the former, while Airlines helped the latter to stay only a single point in the green.
Having had little negative reaction on Friday to a seventh straight weekly uptick in the Baker Hughes US Rig count, Crude Oil prices have fallen overnight as both Brent and US benchmarks reach significant former support turned resistance. Sentiment has been further hampered by the USD finding support overnight following a late Friday sell-off.
Gold continues to trade in a tight $1222-1237 falling channel after Thursday’s double support breakdown, further exacerbated as the chances of a Fed rate hike in March top 95%. However, the precious metal has bounced from the bottom of that channel to test resistance due to USD weakness, although as yet no significant headway into a comprehensive breakout has been made.
In focus today, given the light macro calendar for data, will be fallout from a busy weekend for corporate news with proposed £11bn merger of Standard Life and Aberdeen Asset Management followed by reports from the continent that Germany’s Deutsche Bank is preparing for a €8bn capital increase and France’s PSA is snapping up GM's Opel/Vauxhall for €2.2bn.
Data-wise, this morning’s Eurozone Sentix Investor Sentiment is seen improved in March, before Greek GDP is likely confirmed slower in Q4. Elsewhere, Eurozone Retail PMIs and UK New Car Registrations both act as gauges for consumer confidence in both economies. Afternoon data is limited to what is forecast as solid US Factory Orders and a rebound in Durable Goods Orders.
Speakers are limited to the newly appointed BoE Deputy Governor (for Markets and Banking) Hogg (“Great Minds Lecture”, Uni of Lincoln) who talks mid-morning. Then it’s all quiet until the Fed’s Kashkari tonight (Washington), and while the panel in which he is participating is entitled "A View from the FRB Minneapolis,” he’s unlikely to offer anything about the Fed’s mid-month policy update with the FOMC having just entered its pre-meeting blackout period.
For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.
This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research