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Morning Report - 2 March 2017

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Ashtead 1751 95.0 5.7 10.8
CRH 2854 134.0 4.9 0.9
Glencore 337.75 15.7 4.9 21.8
Next 4003 176.0 4.6 -19.7
ITV 211.7 9.2 4.5 2.6
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Royal Mail 407 -7.6 -1.8 -11.9
Babcock International 936.5 -11.5 -1.2 -1.7
Randgold Resources 7425 -85.0 -1.1 15.7
Centrica 224.5 -2.4 -1.1 -4.1
Fresnillo 1473 -13.0 -0.9 20.6
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 7,382.9 119.5 1.64 3.4
UK 18,983.0 212.3 1.13 5.0
FR CAC 40 4,960.8 102.3 2.10 2.0
DE DAX 30 12,067.2 232.8 1.97 5.1
US DJ Industrial Average 30 21,115.5 303.3 1.46 6.9
US Nasdaq Composite 5,904.0 78.6 1.35 9.7
US S&P 500 2,396.0 32.3 1.37 7.0
JP Nikkei 225 19,564.8 171.3 0.88 2.4
HK Hang Seng Index 50 23,873.7 97.2 0.41 8.5
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,776.6 71.8 1.26 2.0
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 54.05 0.14 0.26 -0.8
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 56.61 0.16 0.28 0.4
Gold ($/oz) 1247.80 1.40 0.11 -1.0
Silver ($/oz) 18.43 0.09 0.46 0.4
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.2271 0.00 -0.87 -1.4
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.0536 0.00 -0.31 -0.2
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1647 0.00 -0.55 -1.2
UK 100 called to open -5pts at 7380

UK 100 : 2 month; 4-hourly

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open -5pts at 7380 (ex-div -1.3pts) having eased from an overnight flirt with 7400 to oscillate around 7380 since the wee hours. Bulls want to see a break above the 7385 highs of last hour to open the door for another attempt at 7400; Bears need a break below 7373 overnight lows. Watch levels: Bullish 7390, Bearish 7370.

Calls for a slightly negative open come in spite of another Trump-inspired record finish on Wall St, a baton that Asia has been only too happy to take up overnight fuelled further by rising expectations (80% probability) of a mid-month US rate hike and high interest helping Snap price today’s IPO above the expected range.

UK Index buoyed by persistent GBP weakness derived from a rampant USD via expectations of another stateside rate-hike warranted by solid US economic data while the UK’s House of Lords voting to amend the Brexit bill has added to political uncertainty, both perversely supporting the UK index of blue chips by flattering the value of internationally generated profits.

Asia helped by additional USD strength pushing the Yen lower to help Japan’s Nikkei exporters while Australia’s ASX is the outperformer after a 5-day losing streak as Miners rallied on talk of China planning to curb steel and aluminium output in an effort to cut winter smog. Watch for mining gains spilling over to the UK Index .

UK Index sentiment may also be impacted by blue chip news; Capita (CEO to step down; 2017 to be transitional year; div unchanged), Merlin Entertainments (progress towards 2020 targets; div unchanged; confident in year ahead), Schroders (AUM +27%, net inflows), Travis Perkins (cautious on outlook for secondary housing market; exceptional charge; raises div), Cobham (£500m rights issue; no 2016 final div; no div for 2017; recently downgraded 2017 outlook unchanged), Informa (£100m acquisition).

The UK Index 's quarterly reshuffle also sees Capita and Dixons Carphone demoted, replaced by Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Rentokil which have been promoted from the . Congratulations!

US equity markets enjoyed their best day of 2017 yesterday as investors reacted favourably to Trump’s most presidential of speeches so far. The Dow Jones emphatically resumed its uptrend with gusto smashing through 21,000 led by AmEx and JPMorgan, only two stocks closing in the red, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both gained 1.4% with financials fuelling the run north.

Crude Oil prices have fallen in reaction to the resurgent US dollar, while a build in US inventories dampened recent bullishness. A clear trend of falling highs resistance since 21 Feb has emerged with four failed challenges showing the impact of rising US production versus OPEC production cuts, an agreement investors hope will be extended past the June cut-off.

Gold has survived a brief test of its 2017 uptrend at $1240, the stronger dollar weighing on the precious metal as hawkish US Fed rhetoric and the prospect of higher US interest rates makes the non-yielding safe haven more expensive to hold. Having recovered to $1245, rising lows support and subsequently bullish flag patterns remain valid.

In focus today will be this afternoon’s long awaited Snap IPO on the NYSE. In the rumour mill since late 2016, today marks the day the so-called camera company finally becomes the largest tech IPO since Alibaba in 2014. With shares priced at $17 amid reports of oversubscription, will investors continue their interest in snapping up the young company’s shares once Wall Street opens?

Data wise, UK Construction PMI (9:30am) is seen continuing to cool from November’s 9-month high, however, the morning spotlight will likely fall upon Eurozone CPI (10am). While expectations are for a marginal increase to 1.9%, don't forget German CPI breached the ECB’s 2% inflation target yesterday for the first time since 2012. Will we see a similar uptick for the Eurozone as a whole?

This afternoon, US Challenger Job Cuts and Weekly Jobless figures - the latter seen largely unchanged - offer the only employment metrics for the Fed to consider before next week’s US jobs report and Non-Farm Payrolls as we creep towards a mid-month policy update and potential rate hike.

Speaker-wise it’s a European affair, with EU President Juncker (2pm; Citizens' Dialogue with Prime Minister of Slovenia) and the ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (7:30pm; London School of Economics).

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Outgoing Capita CEO says strategy to remain intact, dividend not under threat
  • Britain's Capita misses profit target again, CEO to step down
  • Capita and Dixons Carphone demoted from Britain's UK 100
  • Amec Foster sees 246 mln stg proceeds from non – core disposal by Q2 end
  • Fund manager Schroders says FY pretax profit up 5 pct
  • Insurer Hastings 2016 operating profit rises 5 pct
  • Travis Perkins profit falls 1 pct on weak plumbing and heating
  • Cobham to raise 500 mln stg from investors to shore up balance sheet
  • SocGen says arranges $227 mln financing for Oman Shipping Co
  • Gold drops on firmer dollar as March rate hike bets rise
  • Melrose FY revenue more than triples, helped by Nortek buy
  • British bank Aldermore's full – year profit jumps 34 pct
  • Informa to buy largest U.S. boat show operator for 106 mln stg
  • Gocompare.com posts 30 pct rise in 2016 adjusted operating profit
  • Convatec posts 2016 reported net loss after tax of $203 mln

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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