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Morning Report - 9 February 2017

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Capita PLC 514.5 16.7 3.4 -3.1
Persimmon PLC 2016 59.0 3.0 13.5
Rolls-Royce Group PLC 720 19.5 2.8 7.8
Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC 7287 178.0 2.5 5.8
Taylor Wimpey PLC 176.2 4.1 2.4 14.8
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
BHP Billiton PLC 1341.5 -47.0 -3.4 2.7
Glencore PLC 312.1 -5.8 -1.8 12.5
Royal Dutch Shell PLC 2208.5 -40.5 -1.8 -6.2
London Stock Exchange Group PLC 3084 -55.0 -1.8 5.8
Rio Tinto PLC 3377.5 -57.5 -1.7 6.9
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 7,188.8 2.6 0.04 0.1
UK 18,606.0 46.4 0.25 2.3
FR CAC 40 4,766.6 12.1 0.26 -1.5
DE DAX 30 11,543.4 -6.0 -0.05 -2.3
US DJ Industrial Average 30 20,054.3 -36.0 -0.18 -0.2
US Nasdaq Composite 5,682.5 8.2 0.15 0.4
US S&P 500 2,294.7 1.6 0.07 0.0
JP Nikkei 225 18,907.7 -99.9 -0.53 -1.1
HK Hang Seng Index 50 23,545.4 60.3 0.26 7.0
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,664.6 13.3 0.23 0.0
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 52.57 0.13 0.24 -1.1
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 55.39 0.00 0 -0.2
Gold ($/oz) 1242.30 0.80 0.06 4.3
Silver ($/oz) 17.76 0.02 0.1 3.6
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.2515 0.0000 -0.07 -0.3
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.0682 0.0000 -0.09 -0.1
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1716 0.0000 0.01 -0.1
UK 100 called to open +10pts at 7200

UK 100 : 3 week; hourly

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open +10pts at 7200, extending yesterday’s rebound from 7150. This maintains the uptrend since early November and increases potential for recent highs (7230, 7260, 7365) to be regained. Bulls want to see an encouraging break above 7200. Bears need a breach of 7185 overnight lows to hint at a possible retrace to 7150. Watch levels: Bullish 7205, Bearish 7180.

Calls for a positive open come in spite of another mixed bag from both the US and Asian equities overnight as demand for bonds and precious metals suggests investors very much hedging their bets. This in the face of political uncertainty (Europe, Trump) and central banks wanting to dial back on the accommodative policy that has kept markets afloat for almost as decade.

European sentiment boosted by a USD rebound to maintain a February uptrend translating into welcome GBP and EUR weakness to benefit the UK Index and DAX, respectively. Oil prices holding if not adding to their own bounce is also helping commodity space sentiment after production outlook jitters.

Japan’s Nikkei is in the red despite a weaker Yen with consumer dented by weak Toyota sales while Australia’s ASX posts gains thanks to utilities making up for weakness among miners as a stronger USD weighs and a copper mine strike could inspire more elsewhere.

In another mixed session on Wall Street, it is the performance of the Financial sector that is making the headlines. A third consecutive negative session for the darlings of the post-election rally, most notably for Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, led the blue-chip Dow Jones 0.2% lower. This detracts from the Nasdaq, which closed 0.2% stronger at a fresh all-time closing high, while a outperformance from the Real Estate and Utilities sectors helped the S&P 500 higher by 0.1%.

Crude Oil prices have continued their recovery from Tuesday’s overnight lows, as a (somewhat confusing) US government inventory data release buoyed prices yesterday afternoon. Despite a larger than expected build in crude inventories, a drawdown in gasoline stocks was enough to inspire the bulls. Brent is back above $55 per barrel needing to overcome $55.40, while US crude recovers to trade above $52.50, needing the $53 mark to give way for the rally from lows to continue.

The Gold rally continues having posted a fresh 3-month high yesterday on the back of fresh safe haven demand (European and US political uncertainty) while the US Dollar is yet to overcome weekly falling highs despite a February rebound. The bullish flag pattern to $1280 remains valid, although after a failure yesterday afternoon, $1243 resistance will have to be overcome before any further gains can be made. Watch the USD for as a potential trigger.

In focus today - top tier data again distinctly lacking - may in fact be the speaker line-up rather than any macro-economic updates.

The UK’s Trade Secretary Liam Fox (10am) speaks in the wake of last night’s commons approval of an unamended Brexit bill to trigger Article 50. This passes the bill to the House of Lords after the half-term recess, but note Conservatives do not have a majority in the HoL meaning discussion and opposition could be more heated, although should they dare to go against the will of the people it could sound the death knell for this group of privileged and unelected peers.

Thereafter the Fed doves Bullard (non-voter, “US economy & monetary policy”; St Louis, 2:10pm) and Evans (voter; “current economic conditions or monetary policy”; Chicago, 6:10pm) could give rise to some Dollar volatility this afternoon before Bank of England Governor Carney (Inclusion Reception at the BoE; 6.30pm).

Data is limited to US Weekly Jobless Claims (expected flat; 1:30pm) and US Wholesale Sales and Inventories (growth forecast unchanged; 3pm).

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Tate & Lyle lifts expectations after good third quarter
  • Thomas Cook says bookings ahead of last year on expanded European offering
  • Genel says Tawke gross proved estimates at 348m bbls at Dec.31 2016
  • Fund manager Ashmore posts above – forecast 32% H1 profit rise
  • Gulf Keystone says gets KRG payment for Novemeber 2016 oil exports
  • Exillon says January average daily production at 12,069 bbl/day
  • Dairy Crest says expectations for FY profit before tax remain unchanged
  • DFS Furniture says expectations for full – year remain unchanged
  • Smith & Nephew hit by tough markets in China, Gulf States
  • SocGen buys Aviva's stake in insurer Antarius 1 for £425m
  • SocGen eyes vehicle leasing arm IPO as profits fall
  • Tate & Lyle sees brighter full year after good third quarter
  • Russia's Nordgold says to de – list from London Stock Exchange
  • Ashmore Group H1 core profit rises 32 pct to £89.7m
  • Plus500 licence for CFD platform in South Africa
  • BHP Billiton approves $2.2bn for U.S. Mad Dog oil project
  • Oil major Total looking to buy assets, as costs savings lift its profits
  • Rio Tinto considers exiting interest in Freeport Indonesia mine – The Australian
  • Hundreds of Waitrose jobs may go as retailer plans six store closures – Guardian
  • Gold off 3 – month highs; political uncertainty provides support
  • London copper hovers near two – month peak on supply worries
  • Oil rises after drop in U.S. gasoline stocks, but market remains bloated

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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