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| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Fresnillo PLC | 1453 | 39.0 | 2.8 | 19.0 |
| Antofagasta PLC | 835 | 21.0 | 2.6 | 23.7 |
| London Stock Exchange Group PLC | 3171 | 63.0 | 2.0 | 8.8 |
| Hargreaves Lansdown PLC | 1353 | 25.0 | 1.9 | 11.5 |
| Anglo American PLC | 1358 | 25.0 | 1.9 | 17.1 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Legal & General Group PLC | 234.9 | -4.9 | -2.0 | -5.1 |
| Carnival PLC | 4238 | -86.0 | -2.0 | 2.7 |
| Associated British Foods PLC | 2386 | -45.0 | -1.9 | -13.1 |
| International Consolidated Airlines Group SA | 476.7 | -8.7 | -1.8 | 8.1 |
| Barclays PLC | 219.45 | -3.9 | -1.8 | -1.8 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 7,099.2 | -19.3 | -0.27 | -1.4 |
| UK | 18,147.8 | 66.0 | 0.36 | 0.0 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,748.9 | -35.7 | -0.75 | -2.1 |
| DE DAX 30 | 11,535.3 | -146.6 | -1.25 | -0.8 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 19,864.0 | -107.3 | -0.54 | 0.2 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 5,614.8 | 1.1 | 0.02 | 1.1 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,278.9 | -2.0 | -0.09 | 0.3 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 19,148.1 | 106.7 | 0.56 | 0.2 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 23,210.0 | -150.8 | -0.65 | 5.5 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,653.2 | 32.3 | 0.57 | -0.2 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 52.74 | -0.75 | -1.39 | -0.9 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 55.45 | -0.92 | -1.62 | 0.0 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1209.75 | -3.75 | -0.31 | 0.0 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 17.47 | -0.10 | -0.58 | 2.1 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.2556 | 0.00 | -0.26 | 1.5 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.0780 | 0.00 | -0.19 | 0.7 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.1647 | 0.00 | -0.06 | 0.8 |
Click graph to enlarge
UK 100 Index called to open +50pts at 7150, having rebounded from another test of 7100 overnight. However, 3-week intersecting falling highs resistance still in place means we could be looking at a bearish descending triangle that takes us back towards 7050. Bulls likely want to see a break above yesterday’s 7160 highs. Bears want to see a breach of overnight rising lows at 7135. Watch levels: Bullish 7165, Bearish 7130.
Calls for a positive open come after a rally in US futures offset a mixed US close (Dow down, S&P flat-down, Nasdaq flat-up) derived from disappointing corporate results (UPS, Under Armour) and macro data (Consumer confidence, Chicago PMI, Employment costs).
The rally stems from what is seen as a conventional Supreme Court nominee by Trump (not quite redeeming himself after Travel restrictions, but a step forwards). Sentiment got a second wind overnight from solid Chinese PMI Manuf & Services readings for Jan to help Asia overnight.
Optimism has spilled over into Europe this morning as we prepare for similar PMI updates from Europe and the US as well as the Fed’s latest update on policy stance (no change expected) this evening followed by the Bank of England tomorrow. Watch the UK Index Housebuilders who may be moved by UK Nationwide House price growth holding up better than expected in January.
Japan’s Nikkei is positive thanks to a weaker Yen despite a weak USD (Dollar Basket back below 100), a reversal of safehaven seeking. Australia’s ASX up to the same degree thanks to the weak USD and China PMI supporting the commodity space (Copper 2017 highs,.
US equity markets closed lower yesterday, although managed to pare early losses as President Trump provided a boost to Pharmaceutical and Healthcare stocks following a successful meeting with sector executives. The Nasdaq outperformed, finishing marginally higher by less than one tenth of a percent, while the Dow Jones and S&P both closed lower as Financials weighed heavily on market sentiment.
Crude Oil prices have stabilised after a sell off yesterday evening on the back of API inventory data reporting a greater than expected build in crude and gasoline stocks, once again adding fresh concerns that an uptick in US production could offset OPEC’s cuts. Having found support overnight, markets will now be looking for tonight’s official US Government inventories to confirm yesterday’s industry data.
The price of Gold has slipped from yesterday’s highs as the precious metal is unable to overcome $1215 overnight highs in a sign that the recovery rally that began on Friday is waning. US Dollar strength ahead of tonight’s meeting of the US Federal Reserve is hampering sentiment in the marketplace as safe haven demand is outstripped by the bears.
In focus today is the second and final day of Commons debate on the EU (notification of withdrawal) bill to allow the UK government trigger article 50 to leave the EU. The debate culminates in a vote tonight that should - despite some opposition - pave the way for publication on Thursday allowing Theresa May pull the trigger in March. Watch GBP.
The Fed FOMC monetary policy decision should see the US central bank hold pat, allowing President Trump find his policy-making feet and the Fed to monitor steady data that could warrant further tightening but with no urgency. Hints (if any) on timing will have to be drawn from the official statement as accompanying press conferences are only every other meeting. She last spoke in Dec when she last hiked and reiterated a gradual pace. With consensus expecting three hikes this year, we'll likely have to wait for March, if not June. Watch USD.
Data-wise, Eurozone PMI Manufacturing for January is expected to show Spain, Italy and France all just off last week’s highs while Germany climbs to a 3yr high and the region edges over 55 for the first time since early 2011. As for the UK, well the forecast is for a slight pullback from December’s highest since June 2014. Watch EUR.
This afternoon’s data of note includes ADP Employment Change for its potential to give us an inkling about Friday’s widely watched US Non-Farm Payrolls and jobs report. Watch USD.
Speakers today include UK PM Theresa May at Prime Minister’s Question time (midday) along with European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs Pierre Moscovici (2.30pm).
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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research
