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Morning Report - 25 November 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Direct Line Insurance Group PLC 358.3 9.9 2.8 -12.1
Antofagasta PLC 719 18.0 2.6 53.2
Ashtead Group PLC 1496 36.0 2.5 33.7
CRH PLC 2706 57.0 2.2 37.3
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC 3308 58.0 1.8 3.7
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
National Grid PLC 909.9 -21.8 -2.3 -2.9
easyJet PLC 1022 -24.0 -2.3 -41.3
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA 440.5 -10.1 -2.2 -27.9
DCC PLC 6200 -125.0 -2.0 9.5
Travis Perkins PLC 1401 -23.0 -1.6 -29.0
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,829.2 11.5 0.17 9.4
UK 17,590.6 -31.9 -0.18 0.9
FR CAC 40 4,542.6 13.4 0.29 -2.0
DE DAX 30 10,689.3 26.9 0.25 -0.5
US DJ Industrial Average 30 19,083.3 59.5 0.31 9.5
US Nasdaq Composite 5,380.7 -5.7 -0.11 7.5
US S&P 500 2,204.7 1.8 0.08 7.9
JP Nikkei 225 18,381.2 47.8 0.26 -3.4
HK Hang Seng Index 50 22,760.0 151.5 0.67 3.9
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,507.8 22.7 0.41 4.0
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 47.35 -0.66 -1.36 27.7
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 48.35 -0.63 -1.28 28.6
Gold ($/oz) 1179.25 -6.25 -0.53 11.2
Silver ($/oz) 16.33 -0.01 -0.05 18.1
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.2450 -0.0066 -0.01 -15.5
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.0573 -0.0173 0.12 -2.7
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1776 0.0128 -0.14 -13.2
UK 100 called to open flat at 6830

UK 100 :

Click graph to enlarge

UK 100 Index called to open flat at 6830, having traded sideways in a tight 6820-6835 range overnight. Bulls like the fact we remains in a 2-week uptrend, supportive rising lows now intersecting at 6800. However, a proper break above 6835 is still required to open the door for a challenge on Wednesday's 6880 peak or better. Bears need those rising lows to give way at 6800 before any correction towards 6700 can commence. Watch levels: Bullish 6845, Bearish 6795.

A quiet European open comes in spite of Asia ending the week on an up note. However, the region’s equities are off their best levels thanks to the USD Index pulling back from 14yr highs and a three-week Trump-inspired rally to the detriment of Japanese exporters and the Nikkei by way of a stronger Yen. The latter was also helped by a surprising and welcome return to positive territory for Japanese inflation, the first time in 8 months.

Australia’s ASX is performing well, helped by a weaker USD buoying base/industrial metals prices for the all-important Miners, however gains would be greater if it wasn’t for weaker oil prices and scepticism about an OPEC production cut weighing on the Energy space. Beware read across to dual-listed London Miners & Energy. Note Chinese equities outperforming and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rallying on its coat-tails.

US equity markets were closed yesterday for Thanksgiving, with markets today operating a half day. Note, however, Dow Jones Futures set yet another fresh all-time high at 19,160 yesterday evening.

Crude Oil prices slide overnight, as a weakening USD and continued OPEC uncertainty weigh on investor sentiment. Iran and Russia are now the focus for deal negotiators, with the former now providing the spanner in the works after Iraq preliminarily agrees to cut its production next week, whilst the latter remains hesitant to join the party, currently producing at a record rate.

Gold is staging a rally despite posting fresh 9 month lows overnight, as a drawback in the US Dollar provides temporary relief for the embattled precious metal. Reduced FX trading volumes due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the states provides a temporary relief for safe haven asset, however with business as usual resumed on Monday, the gold market may be hit with a shock.

In focus today with the US closing early for the Thanksgiving weekend, will be the second reading for UK Q3 GDP. This is particularly important in light of preliminary data (end-Oct) showing faster than expected growth, dispelling gloomy Brexit forecasts.

In fact, while growth slowed versus Q2, it was faster still than in Q1 and continued to accelerate on an annual basis from its Q4 lows! Any changes to preliminary figs of 0.5% QoQ or 2.3% YoY may see the UK Index react, as would any big swings in Services sector (80% of GDP) growth in September.

Thereafter, UK CBI Retail Sales is seen dropping in November, the data a barometer for both the UK retail sector and consumer confidence. Although the US is quiet for Thanksgiving, we do have updates on Wholesale Inventories growth - seen accelerating in October - and PMI Services holding firm at 54.8, well into growth territory.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Exillon Energy says Oct avg daily production was 12,119 bpd
  • Rio Tinto sees potential demand boost, less red tape in Trump presidency
  • Australia's BHP Billiton hits 15-month high as iron ore extends rally
  • Lamprell says gets $225m contract from ScottishPower Renewables
  • Fastjet chairman resigns as African airline seeks more funds
  • Pennon Group says half – year revenue down 0.5% to £685.5m
  • Cayman Golden Century Wheel Group unit to buy land for 6.91bn won
  • Oil falls on strong dollar, high crude supplies despite planned cut

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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