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Morning Report - 22 November 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Randgold Resources Ltd 6005 215.0 3.7 44.9
Fresnillo PLC 1330 41.0 3.2 87.9
Anglo American PLC 1122.5 33.0 3.0 274.9
Polymetal International PLC 782 19.5 2.6 33.8
Pearson PLC 785 19.0 2.5 6.7
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
ITV PLC 165.6 -4.4 -2.6 -40.1
Whitbread PLC 3511 -93.0 -2.6 -20.2
Direct Line Insurance Group PLC 346.5 -8.8 -2.5 -15.0
Centrica PLC 195.2 -4.4 -2.2 -10.5
Sky PLC 750.5 -16.5 -2.2 -32.5
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,778.0 2.2 0.03 8.6
UK 17,527.6 -131.6 -0.75 0.6
FR CAC 40 4,529.6 25.2 0.56 -2.3
DE DAX 30 10,685.0 20.5 0.19 -0.5
US DJ Industrial Average 30 18,956.8 88.8 0.47 8.8
US Nasdaq Composite 5,368.9 47.4 0.89 7.2
US S&P 500 2,198.2 16.3 0.75 7.6
JP Nikkei 225 18,162.9 56.9 0.31 -4.6
HK Hang Seng Index 50 22,667.8 310.1 1.39 3.4
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,413.3 62.0 1.16 2.2
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 48.77 0.63 1.3 31.6
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 49.44 0.76 1.56 31.5
Gold ($/oz) 1216.25 0.45 0.04 14.7
Silver ($/oz) 16.78 0.11 0.64 21.4
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.2483 -0.0033 -0.07 -15.3
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.0621 -0.0125 -0.16 -2.2
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1755 0.0107 0.09 -13.4
UK 100 called to open +45pts at 6825

UK 100 : 2 month; 4-hourly

Click graph to enlarge

UK 100 Index called to open +45pts at 6825, currently challenging resistance at 6820 having tried and failed to breakout four times since the US election. Bulls will be hoping that the index will make light work of that marker on its way to challenging 6-week falling highs resistance at 6950, while the Bears will be hoping that 6820 once again proves to be a bridge too far with a turn back to challenge (and break down from) 2-week rising lows support at 6770. Watch levels: Bullish 6840Bearish 6750.

Calls for a positive open come after last night’s record setting performance from US indices, where the three major bourses and small-cap Russell 2000 all closed at record highs simultaneously for the first time since New Year’s Eve 1999. A combination of a short-term boost from rising Crude Oil prices alongside the long-term optimistic outlook for Trump’s American economy spawned the quadruple record close, with European bourses expected to ride on the coattails of the US this morning.

Asian markets took the lead from the US close, with indices across the region trading in positive territory. After a series of earthquakes struck Japan before market open, the Nikkei began trading in negative territory, however the market was able to pare gains eventually closing 0.3% higher. The energy sector led gains on Australia’s ASX and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, leading both indices up 1.3%.

As mentioned above, the three major US equity markets all closed at record highs thanks to Trump economic optimism and climbing Oil prices. This continues the run of strong post-election performances from the Dow Jones and Russell 2000, while the S&P and Nasdaq indices, both with a much higher weighting of Tech companies (the worst hit sector after the US election), have taken longer to reach these record highs.

Crude Oil prices are continuing yesterday’s price rally on renewed OPEC production cut optimism, helped further by yesterday’s first negative session for the US dollar in the last 11. As discussions are ongoing in Vienna with regard to who bears the cut in any agreement, confidence is growing that next week’s official meeting will produce a cut of 500,000-1,000,000 barrels per day.

Yesterday’s Gold rally may have been short lived despite gains made at the beginning of the Asian trading session, with the precious metal now trading in negative territory. A pickup in Asian physical buying and the weakening US Dollar helped lead the metal to trade 0.3% higher in the early hours of this morning, however US Dollar strengthening just before European Market opening have seen these gains pared.

In focus today, with (once again) a significant lack of top tier macro data, will be the 3pm release of Eurozone Consumer Confidence and US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index figures. The former is expected to improve slightly to -8.0, continuing its post-Brexit turnaround since August’s -8.5 reading, while the latter is seen flat for the month of November, although a surprise positive reading will be the first since July.

Elsewhere, UK CBI Trends Order data this morning is forecast to improve from last month’s surprise 2016 low figure of -17 to -8, Canadian Retail Sales are seen moving into positive territory for the first time since April, while US Existing Home Sales are predicted to show a slight decrease after last month’s best reading since June.

Speakers are also thin on the ground, with no Fed speakers scheduled now until after the Thanksgiving holiday. The Bank of England’s Forbes is the pick of the day, speaking to a JP Morgan conference at 11:30am, where investors will be hoping for any comments ahead of tomorrow’s Autumn Statement. Also this morning we hear from the ECB’s Liikanen and the RBA’s Kent.

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Big Yellow first-half profit rises
  • Banknote printer De La Rue says confident on full-year results
  • Hikma announces U.S. deal with Vectura for generic salmeterol development
  • Oil prices hit highest since October in anticipation of OPEC-led output cut
  • Halma posts 16% rise in H1 revenue on weak sterling
  • Britain sells a further 1% of Lloyds shares
  • UK's Babcock posts 7% rise in operating profit, sees stable outlook
  • Catering firm Compass revenue rises on strong U.S. growth
  • Compass Group says full – year underlying operating profit up 5.6%
  • National Grid says regulator review of gas system won't impact FY results
  • AstraZeneca resumes cancer trials after FDA lifts partial hold
  • Lufthansa's Eurowings cancels flights due to cabin crew strike
  • Cobham to replace chairman in management shake – up
  • Bunzl makes acquisitions in France and Denmark
  • Intertek Group says on track to deliver robust earnings growth in 2016
  • Kingfisher Q3 sales growth driven by UK and Poland
  • Tesco Expands Its Successful Logistics Relationship with C.H. Robinson
  • Entertainment One says CFO Willits to step down
  • Dollar retreats from 13 1/2 – year high, pauses after rally
  • London copper hits one – week high on inflation expectations

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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