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| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Hikma Pharmaceuticals | 1723 | 99.0 | 6.1 | -25.1 |
| Tesco | 217 | 11.2 | 5.4 | 45.2 |
| easyJet | 1087 | 55.0 | 5.3 | -37.5 |
| Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets | 221.9 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 49.7 |
| Intertek | 3148 | 110.0 | 3.6 | 13.4 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Anglo American | 1096.5 | -78.5 | -6.7 | 266.2 |
| Glencore | 267.4 | -15.4 | -5.5 | 195.5 |
| Antofagasta | 671 | -35.0 | -5.0 | 43.0 |
| BHP Billiton | 1271.5 | -65.0 | -4.9 | 67.3 |
| Rio Tinto | 3004 | -141.5 | -4.5 | 51.8 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 6,792.7 | 39.6 | 0.59 | 8.8 |
| UK | 17,573.0 | 100.7 | 0.58 | 0.8 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,536.5 | 28.0 | 0.62 | -2.2 |
| DE DAX 30 | 10,735.0 | 41.4 | 0.39 | -0.1 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 18,923.0 | 54.3 | 0.29 | 8.6 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 5,275.6 | 57.2 | 1.10 | 5.4 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,180.4 | 16.2 | 0.75 | 6.7 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 17,862.2 | 194.1 | 1.10 | -6.2 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 22,460.3 | 136.4 | 0.61 | 2.5 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,327.7 | 1.5 | 0.03 | 0.6 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 46.10 | 0.92 | 2.03 | 24.4 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 47.30 | 1.14 | 2.46 | 25.8 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1230.35 | 3.55 | 0.29 | 16.0 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 17.17 | 0.09 | 0.54 | 24.2 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.2484 | 0.0085 | 0.26 | -15.3 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.0748 | -0.0301 | 0.21 | -1.0 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.1615 | 0.0395 | 0.03 | -14.4 |
UK 100 Index called to open +15pts at 6810, holding a 4-day rising channel with support at 6800. An overnight flirt with 6850 implies appetite to extend the uptrend from Friday’s lows. Bulls will welcome any break above 6850 to allow them target 7000. Bears look for a breach of rising support at 6800 to ignite a bearish flag pattern back to 6600. Watch levels: Bullish 6825, Bearish 6790.
Another positive start, albeit limited, comes after Asian bourses followed Europe and the US higher, helped by a rebound in Oil prices on OPEC optimism and a slowing up of a rampant USD basket that had hampered the commodity sector yesterday. Sentiment remains positively biased towards a Trump presidency, potentially representing a welcome turning point for markets after a decade of stagnation.
Japan’s Nikkei is leading Asian bourses higher thanks to continued Yen weakness derived from USD strength and disposal of the currency as an alternative safehaven to the Gold. There is also some fresh excitement surrounding Mario, but from Nintendo not the ECB. Australia’s ASX is flat with Miners held back by the correction in metals prices offsetting gains in Energy from the Oil rebound.
US equity markets finished yesterday’s trading session strongly, the Dow Jones claiming its seventh straight winning session to close at all-time highs once again as Energy stocks rallied on Crude Oil price gains. Some respite came for the Nasdaq following the Tech sell off that took hold after Donald Trump’s election win, eventually closing 1.1% higher, while the S&P 500 also closed higher thanks to the aforementioned Energy sector.
Crude Oil prices are continuing to rally as OPEC pulls out all the stops to quash infighting in order to implement this month’s production cut promised at the September meeting of producers in Algiers. An unexpected build in American Petroleum Institute crude inventories last night did little to halt the rally, although could a repeat by official DOE figures at 3:30pm weigh more heavily on investor sentiment?
Gold has pared gains as the US Dollar strengthens this morning following a fall from its highs overnight, with the precious metal continues to trade in a $1210-1232 ascending triangle pattern. As December Fed rate hike expectations continue to mount, uncertainty surrounding the incoming Trump presidency still provides some upside for the safehaven asset.
The macro focus today is with UK Jobs data at 9:30am, headline unemployment expected unchanged at 4.9%, although forecasts are for the overall change in Employment to have slowed. Wages growth is expected to increase marginally (2.4% vs 2.3% prev), offering some welcome inflationary news. Although after yesterday’s soft Consumer Price inflation (where was the weak GBP Brexit impact?) could wages surprise to the downside too or merely flag up concerning divergence?
This afternoon’s US macro data begins with October Producer Price inflation (PPI) at 1:30pm. Both headline and core growth are seen holding firm, however, accelerations over the year could add to arguments for a December Fed rate hike. Industrial and Manufacturing Production at 2:15pm are both seen accelerating a touch in last month, the NAHB Housing Market Index unchanged and the day’s data rounded off with the weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories. Should the data repeat American Petroleum Institute’s larger than expected build last night might we see yesterday’s Oil price rally on OPEC production cut hopes halted.
Once again there are plenty of speakers today with the Fed’s Bullard talking in London at 8:45am shortly after the ECB’s Lautenschlaeger at European market open. This afternoon sees Bullard’s colleague Kashkari speak at 12:45pm, with a third and final Fed speaker - Harker - speaking at 10:30pm. Will the Philly Fed President also add his weight to the growing expectations of a December US rate hike following his colleagues yesterday?
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