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Morning Report - 16 November 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Hikma Pharmaceuticals 1723 99.0 6.1 -25.1
Tesco 217 11.2 5.4 45.2
easyJet 1087 55.0 5.3 -37.5
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets 221.9 9.3 4.4 49.7
Intertek 3148 110.0 3.6 13.4
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Anglo American 1096.5 -78.5 -6.7 266.2
Glencore 267.4 -15.4 -5.5 195.5
Antofagasta 671 -35.0 -5.0 43.0
BHP Billiton 1271.5 -65.0 -4.9 67.3
Rio Tinto 3004 -141.5 -4.5 51.8
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,792.7 39.6 0.59 8.8
UK 17,573.0 100.7 0.58 0.8
FR CAC 40 4,536.5 28.0 0.62 -2.2
DE DAX 30 10,735.0 41.4 0.39 -0.1
US DJ Industrial Average 30 18,923.0 54.3 0.29 8.6
US Nasdaq Composite 5,275.6 57.2 1.10 5.4
US S&P 500 2,180.4 16.2 0.75 6.7
JP Nikkei 225 17,862.2 194.1 1.10 -6.2
HK Hang Seng Index 50 22,460.3 136.4 0.61 2.5
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,327.7 1.5 0.03 0.6
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 46.10 0.92 2.03 24.4
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 47.30 1.14 2.46 25.8
Gold ($/oz) 1230.35 3.55 0.29 16.0
Silver ($/oz) 17.17 0.09 0.54 24.2
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.2484 0.0085 0.26 -15.3
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.0748 -0.0301 0.21 -1.0
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.1615 0.0395 0.03 -14.4
UK 100 called to open +15pts at 6810

UK 100 : 3 week, hourly

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open +15pts at 6810, holding a 4-day rising channel with support at 6800. An overnight flirt with 6850 implies appetite to extend the uptrend from Friday’s lows. Bulls will welcome any break above 6850 to allow them target 7000. Bears look for a breach of rising support at 6800 to ignite a bearish flag pattern back to 6600. Watch levels: Bullish 6825, Bearish 6790.

Another positive start, albeit limited, comes after Asian bourses followed Europe and the US higher, helped by a rebound in Oil prices on OPEC optimism and a slowing up of a rampant USD basket that had hampered the commodity sector yesterday. Sentiment remains positively biased towards a Trump presidency, potentially representing a welcome turning point for markets after a decade of stagnation.

Japan’s Nikkei is leading Asian bourses higher thanks to continued Yen weakness derived from USD strength and disposal of the currency as an alternative safehaven to the Gold. There is also some fresh excitement surrounding Mario, but from Nintendo not the ECB. Australia’s ASX is flat with Miners held back by the correction in metals prices offsetting gains in Energy from the Oil rebound.

US equity markets finished yesterday’s trading session strongly, the Dow Jones claiming its seventh straight winning session to close at all-time highs once again as Energy stocks rallied on Crude Oil price gains. Some respite came for the Nasdaq following the Tech sell off that took hold after Donald Trump’s election win, eventually closing 1.1% higher, while the S&P 500 also closed higher thanks to the aforementioned Energy sector.

Crude Oil prices are continuing to rally as OPEC pulls out all the stops to quash infighting in order to implement this month’s production cut promised at the September meeting of producers in Algiers. An unexpected build in American Petroleum Institute crude inventories last night did little to halt the rally, although could a repeat by official DOE figures at 3:30pm weigh more heavily on investor sentiment?

Gold has pared gains as the US Dollar strengthens this morning following a fall from its highs overnight, with the precious metal continues to trade in a $1210-1232 ascending triangle pattern. As December Fed rate hike expectations continue to mount, uncertainty surrounding the incoming Trump presidency still provides some upside for the safehaven asset.

The macro focus today is with UK Jobs data at 9:30am, headline unemployment expected unchanged at 4.9%, although forecasts are for the overall change in Employment to have slowed. Wages growth is expected to increase marginally (2.4% vs 2.3% prev), offering some welcome inflationary news. Although after yesterday’s soft Consumer Price inflation (where was the weak GBP Brexit impact?) could wages surprise to the downside too or merely flag up concerning divergence?

This afternoon’s US macro data begins with October Producer Price inflation (PPI) at 1:30pm. Both headline and core growth are seen holding firm, however, accelerations over the year could add to arguments for a December Fed rate hike. Industrial and Manufacturing Production at 2:15pm are both seen accelerating a touch in last month, the NAHB Housing Market Index unchanged and the day’s data rounded off with the weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories. Should the data repeat American Petroleum Institute’s larger than expected build last night might we see yesterday’s Oil price rally on OPEC production cut hopes halted.

Once again there are plenty of speakers today with the Fed’s Bullard talking in London at 8:45am shortly after the ECB’s Lautenschlaeger at European market open. This afternoon sees Bullard’s colleague Kashkari speak at 12:45pm, with a third and final Fed speaker - Harker - speaking at 10:30pm. Will the Philly Fed President also add his weight to the growing expectations of a December US rate hike following his colleagues yesterday?

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Barratt Developments Order Book Up, But London Sales Lagging
  • Barratt says remains on track despite cooling London market
  • Rolls-Royce Says Cost Savings on Track, Trading Tough
  • Rolls-Royce ramps up cost savings as markets remain mixed
  • ICAP Profit Rises in Subdued Trading Climate
  • ICAP's H1 trading profit falls amid fragile market conditions
  • Prudential Aims to Grow Ordinary Div 5%/Yr
  • Prudential says new business trends experienced in H1 have continued in Q3
  • Prudential says 9 – month new business profit rises, boosts dividend
  • Great Portland Estates Sells Development on Oxford Street For £276.5 Million
  • Aggreko Sees FY Results Broadly in Line With Expectations
  • Aggreko posts lower Q3 underlying revenue
  • Severn Trent to Acquire Dee Valley Utility for £78.5M
  • Rough Year Buffets easyJet; Profit Drops 22% -- WSJ
  • Savannah Resources Robust copper zones
  • Cranswick Buys Pork Processing Business in Northern Ireland
  • ACCC notified by Glencore PLC of access dispute on 4 November
  • Speedy Hire sees full – year results ahead of expectations
  • BHP to keep iron ore mines running despite Rio's Christmas suspension
  • Antofagasta CEO sees copper surplus next year, shortage after 2017
  • Engineering firm Fenner's FY revenue falls, but tops expectations
  • Britain's Morrisons launches store pick grocery service with Amazon
  • British Land first – half NAV falls
  • British Land turns cautious on property development
  • Pioneer Foods acquires 49.8 pct stake in Weetabix East Africa
  • Oil prices extend rally, shrug off U.S. stock build

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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