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Morning Report - 15 November 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Barclays PLC 212.3 10.5 5.2 -3.0
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (The) PLC 210.4 8.8 4.4 -30.3
Capita PLC 573.5 23.0 4.2 -52.5
Tesco PLC 205.85 7.4 3.7 37.7
Ashtead Group PLC 1430 45.0 3.3 27.8
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Polymetal International PLC 795.5 -41.0 -4.9 36.1
Severn Trent PLC 2095 -82.0 -3.8 -3.8
SSE PLC 1436 -47.0 -3.2 -6.0
Associated British Foods PLC 2516 -82.0 -3.2 -24.7
National Grid PLC 927 -28.7 -3.0 -1.1
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,753.2 22.8 0.34 8.2
UK 17,472.4 27.4 0.16 0.2
FR CAC 40 4,508.6 19.3 0.43 -2.8
DE DAX 30 10,693.7 25.8 0.24 -0.5
US DJ Industrial Average 30 18,868.8 21.0 0.11 8.3
US Nasdaq Composite 5,218.4 -18.7 -0.36 4.2
US S&P 500 2,164.2 -0.3 -0.01 5.9
JP Nikkei 225 17,668.2 -4.5 -0.03 -7.2
HK Hang Seng Index 50 22,325.7 103.5 0.47 1.9
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,326.2 -19.5 -0.37 0.6
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 44.09 1.66 3.9 18.9
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 45.08 1.30 2.97 19.9
Gold ($/oz) 1226.05 2.65 0.22 15.6
Silver ($/oz) 16.98 0.04 0.24 22.8
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.25 0.0080 -0.3 -15.3
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.08 -0.0297 0.06 -1.0
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.16 0.0385 -0.37 -14.5
UK 100 called to open +25 at 6780

UK 100 :

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open +25pts at 6785, trying to hold this week’s trend of rising lows, all the while battling a slightly longer-term - and conflicting - trend of falling highs that capped advances overnight. Within this narrowing pattern, Bulls are looking for a break above 6800 to convince. Bears, on the other hand, need a breach of at least 6750, possibly even 6725, to inspire further downside. Watch levels: Bullish 6800, Bearish 6740.

Another positive start, or attempt at least,  comes after a muted Asian session that followed a similar US close. A USD Basket retreat from its highs has delivered some fresh and unwelcome Yen strength that is hurting exporters and put the Japan’s Nikkei into the red. The US election fallout remains the dominant global story with furious debate about what will come of the shock result. Genuine growth driver and economic saviour or dangerous game changer for both trade and politics?

Australia's ASX is underperforming despite Oil getting up off its lows to help the Energy sector. The turn back in metals prices inspired by USD strength would appear to be weighing too much on the commodity space, even if precious metal safehavens like Gold and Silver have found some support, although they have yet to deliver any sort of rebound.

The Dow Jones closed at another record-high yesterday, leading its US index peers on a continued post-election Financial rally, the sector now over 10% higher since Trump won the Presidency, whileboth the S&P 500 and Nasdaq underperform on Tech weakness. Once more any Trump rhetoric will be seized upon by markets in order to dispel any uncertainty surrounding his potential policies and to confirm whether he remains Trump the divisive candidate or Trump the pragmatic President.

Crude Oil prices have bounced since the European close last night as OPEC producers ramp up negotiations for a production cut with only a fortnight to go until the group’s official meeting in Vienna. A push from Algeria, Qatar and Venezuela to settle disagreements between heavyweight producers Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq has helped investor confidence. However, will this short term boon be quickly overshadowed by renewed conflict between the notoriously argumentative cartel?

Gold is trading sideways having found support just above the $1210 level as investors eye a bargain in prices at 5-month lows. However, with expectations of a December Fed rate hike now above 90% (so was a Hillary win, just saying), downward pressure on the precious metal is likely to be maintained in the run up to the December 12-13 FOMC meeting.

Macro data today includes French and Spanish CPI (Consumer Price Inflation), both seen confirming prior readings of flat and +1.1% in October, highlighting divergent progress within the region’s north/south divide. Thereafter, Italian GDP is expected to show a bounce in Q3 after a flat Q2, at odds with the surprise German slowdown announced earlier this morning.

At home in the UK, inflation data is expected to show a rise in October, in-line with a Brexit-inspired weaker GBP pushing up input prices. Although perhaps not by quite as much as might be expected, and the core measure is actually forecast to have eased (fierce supermarket competition?). Eurozone Q3 GDP is seen confirmed flat for a third straight quarter, although German and Eurozone ZEW Business surveys are expected to have improved further in November.

In the afternoon, with US inflation expectation in such focus on hopes of a Trump embarking on an infrastructure binge, import prices are forecast higher in October and the annual pace of deflation easing markedly. Empire Manufacturing could recover close to breakeven, while Retail Sales  deliver similar Oct growth to that published for Sept.

Speakers are ten-a-penny with RBA Governor Lowe just after the European open following up on the latest meeting minutes from downunder. The Bank of England’s Carney, Shafik and Saunders entertain the UK Treasury Select Committee mid-morning. In the afternoon, with the USD so strong versus peers post the Trump election, listen out for what the Fed’s Rosengren, Tarullo, Fischer and Kaplan all speaking this afternoon. Are we still to expect a Fed rate hike next month, or are Yellen and Co set to hold off again, just to see how things pan out with Donald.

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

 

  • Vodafone H1 Organic Service Rev Up 2.3%; Group Rev -3.9% to EUR27.1B
  • B&M European Value Retail Boosts 1H Profit, Hikes Dividend 19%
  • UK 100 to Extend Gains for Now; Dollar Eases Lower
  • FirstGroup Swings to 1H Pretax Profit
  • BTG 1H17 Pretax Profit Hit by One-off Costs; 1H Revenue +10%
  • Cineworld Group 45-Weeks Revenue Up; Sees FY in Line
  • Meggitt Trading in Line; 3Q Organic Revenue Growth 6%
  • EasyJet Profit Dives After Terror Attacks, Brexit Knock Back Sales
  • Smiths Group 1Q Underlying Revenue Falls 3%; Backs FY Guidance
  • Crest Nicholson sees FY16 Revenue at £1bn
  • McCarthy & Stone FY16 Pretax Profit Up; Sees FY17 Impacted by Brexit
  • Wood Group awarded $40m automation services contract

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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