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Morning Report - 14 November 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
BT 361 13.1 3.8 -23.5
Marks & Spencer 327.2 10.4 3.3 -27.7
Next 5040 149.0 3.1 -30.9
Severn Trent 2177 47.0 2.2 0.0
Associated British Foods 2598 55.0 2.2 -22.3
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Fresnillo 1435 -141.0 -9.0 102.7
Randgold Resources 5955 -430.0 -6.7 43.7
Standard Chartered 617.2 -41.8 -6.3 9.5
Smiths 1374 -72.0 -5.0 46.3
Polymetal International 836.5 -43.5 -4.9 43.1
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,730.4 -97.6 -1.43 7.8
UK 17,445.0 -214.5 -1.21 0.1
FR CAC 40 4,489.3 -41.7 -0.92 -3.2
DE DAX 30 10,668.0 37.9 0.36 -0.7
US DJ Industrial Average 30 18,847.8 39.8 0.21 8.2
US Nasdaq Composite 5,237.1 28.3 0.54 4.6
US S&P 500 2,164.5 -3.0 -0.14 5.9
JP Nikkei 225 17,672.6 297.8 1.71 -7.2
HK Hang Seng Index 50 22,222.8 -308.3 -1.37 1.4
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,345.7 -25.0 -0.47 0.9
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 43.34 0.18 0.41 16.9
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 44.76 0.43 0.96 19.1
Gold ($/oz) 1219.15 -8.25 -0.67 15.0
Silver ($/oz) 17.20 -0.16 -0.94 24.4
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.25 -0.46 -14.9
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.08 -0.57 -0.6
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.16 0.14 -14.3
UK 100 called to open +55pts at 6785

UK 100 :

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open +55pts at 6785, Friday’s bounce from near 6700 getting back near the 6800 level breached late last week. Hugging overnight highs, just shy of 6800, suggests interest in a bullish breakout. Bulls need this if the recovery rally is to have legs towards 7000. Bears need a breach of intersecting rising support at 6775. Watch levels: Bullish 6795, Bearish 6770.

A positive start to the week comes from further easing of concerns about a Trump presidency. Certain appointments (chief of staff, chief strategist) have proved more conventional than feared, while certain populist issues aren't being focused on so much. Expectations of an infrastructure spending spree, fiscal stimulus and deregulation are, however, intensifying the bond market sell-off via  hopes of growth, inflation and, more importantly, interest rate rises.

Japan’s Nikkei is benefiting from impressive domestic Q3 GDP growth and Yen weakness. The latter may surprise in light of solid growth, coming from a combination of a USD Basket surge (9-month highs) on US rate-rise expectations (USD/JPY 6-month lows), investors unwinding safehaven trades (Yen used like Gold; less worried about Trump) and comments from BoJ Governor Kuroda about the risks of hitting targets being tilted to the downside on global economic uncertainty.

Australia’s ASX is in the red as the USD surge checks rallies by base metals and a Gold slump hurts safehaven metal Miners as concerns about President Trump ease. Slightly weaker than expected China data (Industrial Production flat, Retail Sales slowed) is also likely hindering metals prices and risk appetite related to the world’s #2 economy, the Aussies’ biggest trading partner.

US equity markets closed the Presidential election week with the strongest showing since 2014 despite a tumultuous trading session on Wednesday and the Technology sector weighing on the wider market. The Dow Jones posted fresh all-time highs whilst its counterpart the S&P 500 reached 2-month highs as optimism of Trump fiscal stimulus and deregulation gripped the market.

Crude Oil prices are trading sideways as we await the latest round of ‘will they, won’t they?’ with OPEC producers regarding a production cut in a fortnight’s time and any confirmation of Trump’s pro-US shale energy policy promised during his election campaign. Friday’s 21st Baker Hughes Rig Count increase in the last 23 as well as reports released on Sunday that Iran has increased production at three of its oil fields may weigh on the prices if a lack of cooperative OPEC rhetoric is produced today.

Gold is continuing its post-US election slide to reach 5-month lows, however it has staged a slight technical rebound this morning saving the price of the precious metal from falling below $1210/oz. The monetary-policy sensitive commodity is likely to face further pressure this week as expectations of a December Fed rate hike have increased from a paltry 32% at the start of November to over 80% as President-elect Trump’s victory and fiscal pledge has boosted the US Dollar.

Macro data today has come in thick and fast in the early hours of this morning, however top-tier data is very light throughout the rest of the day. Eurozone Industrial Output for September is the solitary data release today of note, seen to show a decline in both the monthly and yearly figures from 1.6% and 1.8% respectively to -1.0% and 0.9%.

A wealth of speakers should make up for the lack of data this afternoon, with the ECB head Mario Draghi speaking at 3pm, before a trifecta of Fed speakers - Kaplan, Lacker and Williams - take to the stand after European market close. Draghi’s colleague Constancio is the only speaker of note this morning, giving a keynote speech at the opening of the 19th Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt at 8:30am.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Japan's Idemitsu to delay Showa Shell stake purchase from Shell
  • Dewhurst says group revenues for FY16 to exceed 47 mln stg
  • Evraz names Nikolay Ivanov as CFO
  • William Hill Reaffirms 2016 Operating Profit Guidance
  • DCC sees FY operating profit ‘significantly’ ahead of last year
  • UK builder Taylor Wimpey sees 2016 cancellations marginally rise
  • Johnston Press in talks with Iliffe Media to sell certain titles
  • Playtech to acquires Consolidated Financial Holdings for $120M
  • Legal & General ytd retirement sales 6.7 bln stg
  • Drugmakers improve access for poor, GSK ranked top
  • Standard Life comments on strategic combination involving HDFC Life
  • Lonmin reports FY underlying profit on higher cost cuts
  • Lonmin reports 10.1 pct fall in Marikana production in Q4
  • Russia's Rosneft starts test oil supplies from new Siberia field
  • Russia's Nordgold Q3 net profit up 19 pct y/y to $55 mln
  • Copper gains on signs China spending more on fixed assets
  • Oil steady near multi – month lows on OPEC output record, U.S. rig count
  • Greencore Posts FY16 Underlying Earnings Growth; to Buy Peacock Foods for $747.5M

 


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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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