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Morning Report - 4 November 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Royal Bank of Scotland 193.9 11.2 6.1 -35.8
Dixons Carphone 341.5 15.1 4.6 -31.7
British Land 607 22.0 3.8 -22.8
Marks & Spencer 351.2 10.9 3.2 -22.4
easyJet 997.5 29.5 3.1 -42.7
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Randgold Resources 7110 -475.0 -6.3 71.6
Fresnillo 1703 -77.0 -4.3 140.5
GlaxoSmithKline 1554 -52.5 -3.3 13.2
Johnson Matthey 3265 -104.0 -3.1 16.1
Diageo 2070.5 -62.0 -2.9 11.5
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,790.5 -54.9 -0.80 8.8
UK 17,582.0 118.4 0.68 0.9
FR CAC 40 4,411.7 -3.0 -0.07 -4.9
DE DAX 30 10,325.9 -45.0 -0.43 -3.9
US DJ Industrial Average 30 17,930.8 -29.0 -0.16 2.9
US Nasdaq Composite 5,058.4 -47.2 -0.92 1.0
US S&P 500 2,088.7 -9.3 -0.44 2.2
JP Nikkei 225 16,905.4 -229.3 -1.34 -11.2
HK Hang Seng Index 50 22,707.8 24.3 0.11 3.6
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,180.8 -44.7 -0.86 -2.2
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 44.78 0.14 0.3 20.8
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 46.47 0.14 0.3 23.6
Gold ($/oz) 1297.35 -5.65 -0.43 22.3
Silver ($/oz) 18.22 -0.14 -0.76 31.8
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.25 -0.04 -15.4
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.11 0 2.2
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.12 -0.04 -17.3
UK 100 called to open -35pts at 6755

UK 100 : 1-month, 4-hourly

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open -35pts at 6755, just about holding overnight lows of 6750 with Tuesday’s downtrend from 7000 still valid. Bulls are watching 6750 as last chance saloon of support before a drop to 6700, if not 6650. They likely need a breakout to 6780 to signal a turnaround, although many will be cautious after yesterday’s early fake-out. Bears are merely waiting for 6750 to give way to jump on the next leg down. Watch levels: Bullish 6780, Bearish 6745.

Another negative open comes down to….politics, politics everywhere, investors concerned about the outcome of the US election next Tuesday, what the UK High Court ruling means for Article 50 and Brexit and a lively French presidential debate before primary elections in two weeks. The monthly US jobs report this afternoon is also something that tends to put investors on edge given its potential ramifications on US growth sentiment and Fed monetary policy outlook and the volatility that can ensure.

Japan’s Nikkei is in the red on its return from public holiday as it adjusts to recent Yen strengthening derived from politically-inspired safehaven seeking. Low oil prices also continue to weigh on Energy space, something which is hindering Australia’s ASX, the index also failing to benefit from commodity prices near recent highs. Mixed Retail Sales data likely doesn't help along with the RBA trimming its medium term growth forecasts.

US equity markets are still suffering from pre-election jitters, most notably on the S&P where the index posted its longest run of negative trading sessions since 2008. Technology remains a bane after for both the Dow Jones and the S&P after Facebook’s disappointing revenue forecasts on Wednesday, with Apple leading losses on the former. Another negative session today to end the week will mark the longest losing streak on the S&P since 1980. Can Non-Farm Payroll data released today lift ailing markets?

Crude oil prices are continuing declines into a fifth straight negative session in a row despite a slight technical bounce, completely wiping out gains made after the provisional OPEC production cut agreement in Algiers in September. This comes after the organisation released a statement yesterday stating that investors should not be too quick to judge OPEC, however waning confidence is rife as record production from members and non-members (most notably 11.8m bpd producing Russia) continues.

Gold price continues to remain near one month highs, although a third challenge in as many days at $1305 resistance overnight yet again yielded no breakthrough. A turnback towards one week rising lows support could provide yet another technical bounce to challenge resistance, however ongoing US election and US Fed commentary is once again more likely to move markets throughout the day.

In focus today on the data front will be US Non-Farm Payrolls, given the US Fed having said that the case for a rate rise has continued to strengthen, but that it would like to see further evidence. Could today’s jobs report take us a step closer to a December rate hike, like last year?

An NFP print of 100-200K (consensus 175K) will likely be taken as rate rise positive, especially if unemployment drops back to its summer lows of 4.9%. As always, with inflation as the other half of the Fed’s dual mandate, keep an eye on any improvement in earnings that would also be supportive.

This morning though, all eyes will be on Eurozone PMI Services seen continuing September’s rebound from the lowest since Jan 2015. Improvements are forecast for Spain, Italy and Germany, although France is seen backtracking. An improvement in Eurozone Producer Price Inflation (PPI) would be a welcome sight for ECB President Draghi, maintaining the uptrend since April’s extremely very depressed deflationary lows.

With Fed and BoE updates behind us, updates from respective members are unlikely to offer anything fresh. The Fed’s Lockhart speaks around midday along with German Finance Minister Scheuble while the BoE’s Forbes talks mid-afternoon. The ECB’s Constancio and Fed’s Kaplan speak after the European close before the Fed’s Fischer and ECB’s Angeloni tonight.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • IAG October passengers rise 3.9 pct
  • IAG sticks to long – term earnings and margin targets
  • easyJet passenger numbers rise 6.9 pct in October
  • Vodafone agrees sale of Netherlands' consumer fixed business to T – Mobile
  • Paddy Power Betfair ups FY profit guidance on sterling, merger
  • Tullett Prebon Q3 revenue rises 15 pct
  • Glencore cleared to extend life of Australian coal mine to 2031
  • Advent halves stake in UK furniture retailer DFS – bookrunner
  • Lamprell announces delivery jackup rig to Ensco
  • New World Oil says trading on AIM to be cancelled from Nov. 10
  • Royal London Mutual Insurance Society funds under management rise to 101 bln pounds
  • John Laing sells holding in Poland motorway project for 131 mln stg
  • Standard Chartered appoints Gay Huey Evans as chair of board financial crime risk committee
  • UK car sales rose around 1 percent in October
  • London zinc eases from 5-year high ahead of U.S. jobs report
  • Oil prices steady after 5 days of declines, but sentiment bearish

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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