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| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Fresnillo | 1780 | 62.0 | 3.6 | 151.4 |
| Next | 4979 | 169.0 | 3.5 | -31.7 |
| easyJet | 968 | 27.5 | 2.9 | -44.4 |
| Randgold Resources | 7585 | 190.0 | 2.6 | 83.1 |
| Associated British Foods | 2525 | 50.0 | 2.0 | -24.5 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Standard Chartered | 644.1 | -29.2 | -4.3 | 14.3 |
| Royal Dutch Shell | 2136.5 | -62.5 | -2.8 | 38.5 |
| Barclays | 182.05 | -4.6 | -2.5 | -16.8 |
| St James’s Place | 924 | -22.0 | -2.3 | -8.3 |
| Experian | 1530 | -34.0 | -2.2 | 27.4 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 6,845.4 | -71.7 | -1.04 | 9.7 |
| UK | 17,463.5 | -59.8 | -0.34 | 0.2 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,414.7 | -55.6 | -1.24 | -4.8 |
| DE DAX 30 | 10,370.9 | -155.3 | -1.47 | -3.5 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 17,959.8 | -77.3 | -0.43 | 3.1 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 5,105.6 | -48.0 | -0.93 | 2.0 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,097.9 | -13.8 | -0.65 | 2.6 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 17,134.7 | Closed | Closed | -10.0 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 22,766.7 | -43.8 | -0.19 | 3.9 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,225.6 | -3.4 | -0.07 | -1.3 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 45.65 | 0.46 | 1.01 | 23.2 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 47.23 | 0.65 | 1.38 | 25.6 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1303.15 | 3.65 | 0.28 | 22.9 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 18.50 | -0.06 | -0.34 | 33.8 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.23 | – | 0.28 | -16.3 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.11 | – | 0.18 | 2.3 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.11 | – | 0.1 | -18.2 |
UK 100 Index called to open -15pts at 6830, with this week’s trend of falling highs resistance preventing recovery from yesterday’s 6820 lows from bettering 6860 overnight. Bulls need an upside break of that trendline at 6840 and maybe even 6860 before getting hopeful of a turnaround. Bears would like to see 6820 lows give way to increase the probability that 6765 late-September lows (maybe even July rising support around 6700) are revisited. Watch levels: Bullish 6865, Bearish 6815.
Another negative open comes after US bourses extended their pre-Election jitter losses to nine straight sessions and risk appetite remained dampened in Asia overnight, benefiting the usual suspect safehavens Gold and the Japanese Yen. The US Federal Reserve making stronger gestures to a December rate hike hasn’t made matters easier, even if - as always - it left itself with enough wiggle room to delay its next hike into 2017 (“..case has continued to strengthen, but waiting for further evidence”.)
With Japanese bourses closed for Culture day, Australia's ASX is just in the red, faring relatively well thanks to strong macro data and Energy names benefitting from an oil price bounce. Its Mining space is also supported by dollar-denominated metals (base and precious) holding up well, helped by election uncertainty and the weaker US currency. Further improvement in China PMI Services data also helps given it is the Aussies' biggest trading partner.
US equity markets closed lower across the board yesterday, whilst the VIX volatility index spiked to levels last seen around Brexit. The continuing markets jitters surrounding the election drove investor sentiment, with the FOMC meeting eventually having a negligible impact as the committee held fire. For now. Meanwhile, disappointing after market reporting from Facebook saw the social media giant’s share price fall by over 7% as the company warns advertising revenue will slow in the near future. Today’s reporters include Starbucks and CBS this evening whilst Kraft Heinz report after market.
Crude oil prices have staged a slight rebound after European close yesterday as an attack on a Nigerian pipeline took place, although having reached $47.50 and $46 per barrel for Brent and US crude respectively the bounce looks to be running out of steam. The falling US Dollar may help to provide some support to prices, however, with increasing output from OPEC members hampering market optimism that a production cut deal can be reached later this month, the downward pressure on the price of the black stuff could well continue.
Gold prices remain near one-month highs as the US election induced rally sees prices hit $1305. The foot has come off the pedal for the moment as investors digest the latest meeting of the Fed’s FOMC, although any further news on the FBI investigation into Hillary Clinton and the outcome of the UK High Court’s Brexit ruling today could provide the impetus for the rally to continue.
Focus today will likely be the UK High Court ruling on a legal challenge over whether the UK’s triggering of Article 50 for Brexit requires a parliamentary vote. PM Theresa May says Not needed. Whatever the result, expect its significance to result in an appeal to the Supreme Court which could hear the case in December in time for PM May’s intention to pull the trigger (and 2yrs of painful negotiation) by end March.
Silver medal importance goes to the Bank of England (BoE) ‘Super Thursday’ monetary policy update. With UK GDP growth having held up so well, Governor Carney has been in the firing line for politicising his office with forecasts and Brexit warnings that ultimately proved pessimistic.
He was very right about a very weak Sterling (GBP) though, and so the Quarterly inflation Report and Minutes will be of great interest in terms of rising input pricing pressure. Expect inflation forecasts to be revised higher. The question though is how much of an inflation overshoot (above 2%) the BoE will permit as the economy adjusts.
UK growth expectations may also see mild upward revision, even though it’s still very early days in terms of Brexit. More stimulus intervention could yet be necessary (another rate cut) should true Brexit impact prove delayed. Any hints about the bank’s plans for 2017 would thus be most welcome.
Data-wise, UK PMI Services is seen flat, while US PMI Services are expected to be confirmed higher although US ISM Non-Manufacturing is forecast lower and Durable Goods growth in the red.
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