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| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Next PLC | 4744 | 240.0 | 5.3 | -34.9 |
| easyJet PLC | 918 | 44.5 | 5.1 | -47.2 |
| Marks & Spencer Group PLC | 333.7 | 13.8 | 4.3 | -26.2 |
| Royal Bank of Scotland Group (The) PLC | 177.6 | 7.2 | 4.2 | -41.2 |
| Tesco PLC | 208.3 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 39.3 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Burberry Group PLC | 1403 | -109.0 | -7.2 | 17.4 |
| Pearson PLC | 745 | -17.5 | -2.3 | 1.2 |
| Rolls-Royce Group PLC | 761 | -12.5 | -1.6 | 32.4 |
| Johnson Matthey PLC | 3456 | -33.0 | -1.0 | 22.9 |
| DCC PLC | 6695 | -55.0 | -0.8 | 18.3 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 7,000.1 | 52.5 | 0.76 | 12.1 |
| UK | 17,994.4 | 201.9 | 1.13 | 3.2 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,508.9 | 58.7 | 1.32 | -2.8 |
| DE DAX 30 | 10,631.5 | 127.9 | 1.22 | -1.0 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 18,162.0 | 75.5 | 0.42 | 4.2 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 5,243.8 | 44.0 | 0.85 | 4.7 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,139.6 | 13.1 | 0.62 | 4.7 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 17,007.0 | 43.4 | 0.26 | -10.6 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 23,356.4 | -38.0 | -0.16 | 6.6 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,435.4 | 24.6 | 0.45 | 2.6 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 50.75 | 0.78 | 1.55 | 36.9 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 52.13 | 0.69 | 1.34 | 38.7 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1262.65 | -1.95 | -0.15 | 19.1 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 17.62 | -0.04 | -0.23 | 27.5 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.23 | – | -0.2 | -16.7 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.10 | – | 0.06 | 1.1 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.12 | – | -0.26 | -17.6 |
UK 100 Index called to open flat at 7000, holding above the round number overnight following yesterday’s breakout. A bullish pennant pattern has potentially formed, a breakout from which could help the index back to 7100. Bulls will be looking for a breakout from the pennant to confirm the September uptrend is alive and well. Bears will be hoping that 7000 and overnight rising lows give way. Watch levels: Bullish 7020, Bearish 6990
A lukewarm open follows a mixed Asian session where investors failed to derive any excitement whatsoever from spookily stable Chinese GDP growth of 6.7% (that’s three quarters in a row!) that puts the world’s #2 economy on track to meet its full year target. Faster growth for Retail Sales was offset by weakness for Industrial Production. The GDP stability leads some to ask whether more aggressive measures might be dared to try and calm credit and property-inflated bubbles. Delicate.
Japan’s Nikkei is posting small gains with a stronger Yen offsetting Energy’s benefit from higher oil prices. Australia’s ASX is outperforming thanks to solid China GDP data and a weaker Aussie dollar and while BHP Billiton (BLT) reported Iron Ore output -6% last quarter, this is denting metals prices but not hurting Miners too much. Chinese bourses underperforming in spite of GDP.
US equities posted gains at session close yesterday as macro data met with expectations and Q3 earnings reporting for US companies continued. The Dow Jones finished 0.4% higher and was led by the Healthcare sector, positive results from UnitedHealth and Goldman Sachs helping to offset a poor performance from IBM having missed earnings forecasts. The Nasdaq outperformed with a gain of 0.9%, helped by guidance busting Netflix shooting up over 20%, while the S&P 500 closed 0.6% higher, also led by Healthcare. Note Intel's after-market after market update sending shares -5% lower but Yahoo's were +1%.
Crude Oil prices are showing a strong gain following overnight API inventory data showed a surprise consnsus-beating drawdown after last week’s first build in 4 weeks. A 3.8m drawdown helped to buoy prices of the black stuff, with Brent back above $52 per barrel and US steady around $50.75. Official DoE EIA inventories released later today will, as always, either confirm or dispel this data, with forecasts similar to the API projections of a build around 2.8m barrels.
Gold, having reached the top of its two-week $1250-1265 trading channel overnight, has fallen as the USD strengthens following solid overnight performance from the Pound and Euro. Speakers from the Fed this afternoon have the potential to produce movements in the precious metal, as any hints about an imminent Fed rate hike will be seized upon by investors following dovish comments from the Chair and Vice Chair last week.
Today’s focus, beyond the fallout from overnight China GDP data, will be UK Unemployment and Wages. Both are expected to have held firm in the three months to August, adding to arguments that the backside isn't falling out of the UK economy despite Brexit, but GBP could still move as a result.
Thereafter, investors will be left wanting for anything major until early afternoon when we get the latest update on US Housing Starts and Building Permits (seen unchanged but could influence US equities) and Weekly Oil Stocks which have a high probability of moving US Crude prices, especially after another bullish API print.
The evening sees the latest US Fed Beige book provide us with a summary of anecdotal information on current economic conditions that may sway sentiment about US growth and the likelihood of a US rate hike by year end. Watch US equities and indices.
Speakers today include the Fed’s Williams, the UK Chancellor Hammond, the Bank of England’s Haldane and the Fed’s Kaplan. A sprinkling of comment from the EU’s Juncker, Tusk and the ECB’s Nouy are also on the roster.
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