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Morning Report - 18 October 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Rolls-Royce Group PLC 773.5 9.0 1.2 34.5
Standard Chartered PLC 658.4 6.3 1.0 16.8
BT Group PLC 378.65 3.4 0.9 -19.7
Lloyds Banking Group PLC 52.82 0.4 0.7 -27.7
Glencore PLC 229.9 1.6 0.7 154.1
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Pearson PLC 762.5 -70.0 -8.4 3.6
Admiral Group PLC 1949 -77.0 -3.8 17.5
Standard Life PLC 324.6 -12.5 -3.7 -16.7
Hargreaves Lansdown PLC 1155 -36.0 -3.0 -23.3
Barratt Developments PLC 468.7 -14.0 -2.9 -25.1
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,947.6 -66.0 -0.94 11.3
UK 17,792.5 -187.7 -1.04 2.1
FR CAC 40 4,450.2 -20.7 -0.46 -4.0
DE DAX 30 10,503.6 -76.8 -0.73 -2.2
US DJ Industrial Average 30 18,086.5 -52.0 -0.29 3.8
US Nasdaq Composite 5,199.8 -14.3 -0.28 3.8
US S&P 500 2,126.5 -6.5 -0.30 4.0
JP Nikkei 225 16,963.6 63.5 0.38 -10.9
HK Hang Seng Index 50 23,381.7 344.2 1.49 6.7
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,410.8 22.1 0.41 2.2
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 50.26 0.65 1.3 35.6
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 51.86 0.57 1.1 38.0
Gold ($/oz) 1259.45 2.85 0.23 18.8
Silver ($/oz) 17.61 0.12 0.67 27.4
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.22 0.09 -17.0
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.10 0.02 1.4
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.11 0.06 -18.2
UK 100 called to open +30pts at 6945

UK 100 : 3 month; 4-hourly

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open +30pts at 6975, with yesterday’s bounce at 6930 bolstering potential for Aug/Sept resistance to have turned supportive to keep alive the uptrend since mid/last month. This allows Bulls to remain fixated on a rally back towards all-time highs around 7130. The Bears, however, note we are still in a downtrend since this time last week until the 7000 level is overcome. Watch levels: Bullish 7010, Bearish 6960

Calls for a positive open come thanks to gains in Asia driven by a USD Basket coming off last week’s FOMC minutes inspired highs to propel emerging market currencies higher ahead of US inflation data this afternoon. This as markets prepare for tomorrow’s final televised US presidential debate and face-off between Clinton and Trump before the Nov. 8 election.

Japan’s Nikkei is higher thanks to the weaker Yen and Australia’s ASX fighting off a stronger AUD, both buoyed by stronger commodity prices and oil holding up, to the benefit of Miners and Energy.

US equities closed lower yesterday amid falling oil prices, weak macro data and dovish comments from Federal Reserve Vice Chair Fischer, despite a positive start to Q3 earnings season. The energy sector contributed to a 0.3% fall on the S&P 500, while the Dow Jones also dropped 0.3% as investors priced-in further earnings releases from US heavyweights Goldman Sachs and Mcdonald’s.

Crude Oil is benefiting from a USD off highs, looking to recover from yesterday afternoon’s sharp sell-off. Overnight reports that the global oversupply may be closer to balanced than previously expected (Q3 inventory build lowest since Q4 2014) has also helped support oil prices as API inventories come into focus tonight.

Gold is also a beneficiary of the weakened USD, although still remains in the $1250-$1260 channel the precious metal has occupied for close to a fortnight. Dovish comments from US Fed Vice Chair Fischer overnight stating that accommodative policy may be left in place for longer provides further support for the monetary policy sensitive commodity.

Today’s focus will be inflation and house price data from the UK this morning and the US this afternoon. This while EU Foreign Ministers meet to discuss the mid-term review of the region’s multiannual 2014-20 budget and a package of decisions on the comprehensive economic and trade agreement with Canada (CETA).

At home, UK CPI is seen slower in September. Annual and core rates are expected to have ticked north, but remain well below target. Watch out for the Brexit effect. Investors in UK Housebuilders should watch the UK House Price Index for August should it deliver the slower rate of price increase consensus is looking for.

In the afternoon, US CPI is seen accelerating last month although the core measure is forecast pretty much unchanged. Of more interest to Fed watchers will surely be the pace of Real Average Weekly Earnings, which remains a long way below inflation, likely prolonging the furious rate hike debate. The US Housing Market Index is, like in the UK, seen lower, but relates to more recent data (Oct).

 

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • AstraZeneca accepts review for Hyperkalaemia drug
  • Smiths Group establishes 2.5bn Euro note programme
  • Legal & General chairman John Kingman to take up post Oct. 24
  • AVTECH announces new partnership with Met Office
  • Premier African buys small stake in DRC-focused mining firm
  • Utilitywise says CFO Jon Kempster to step down
  • Staffing firm Hays says Q1 UK and Ireland net fees -10%
  • Ladbrokes sees FY expectations supported by robust Q3 performance
  • Faroe Petroleum finds oil at Norwegian Sea flank
  • Renergen says six – month loss per share -95%
  • Strong parcel delivery demand boosts Connect Group's full – year profit, says FY adj pretax profit +7.4%
  • Shire granted EU approval for pancreatic cancer combination therapy
  • MHP Q3 poultry production volumes +5% to 149,760 tonnes
  • Builder Bellway says demand remains strong after Brexit vote, dividend +40%
  • ASOS profit soars, says confident on coming year
  • Weak pound drives strong UK sales for luxury brand Burberry
  • Ryanair cuts profit forecast due to sterling weakness
  • Russia's Polymetal says Q3 gold output +29% q/q
  • Russia's Evraz says Q3 crude steel output +6% q/q
  • Amaya and William Hill have determined that they will no longer pursue merger
  • London copper supported by dollar, deficit underpins nickel
  • Oil edges up as analysts say market could be closer to balance than expected

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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