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| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Anglo American | 951 | 30.5 | 3.3 | 217.6 |
| Ashtead | 1230 | 32.0 | 2.7 | 9.9 |
| Persimmon | 1838 | 41.0 | 2.3 | -9.3 |
| Barratt Developments | 497.2 | 10.2 | 2.1 | -20.6 |
| Mediclinic International | 948 | 18.5 | 2.0 | -14.4 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Polymetal International | 981 | -78.0 | -7.4 | 67.8 |
| ITV | 186.7 | -7.5 | -3.9 | -32.5 |
| BAE Systems | 524.5 | -13.0 | -2.4 | 5.0 |
| Royal Bank of Scotland | 182.6 | -3.9 | -2.1 | -39.5 |
| Pearson | 758 | -16.0 | -2.1 | 3.0 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 6,909.4 | -2.0 | -0.03 | 10.7 |
| UK | 17,923.0 | -64.7 | -0.36 | 2.8 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,488.7 | -21.1 | -0.47 | -3.2 |
| DE DAX 30 | 10,627.0 | -47.2 | -0.44 | -1.1 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 18,261.5 | -131.0 | -0.71 | 4.8 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 5,305.8 | -33.8 | -0.63 | 6.0 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,164.7 | -12.5 | -0.57 | 5.9 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 16,599.1 | -154.9 | -0.92 | -12.8 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 23,484.0 | -202.5 | -0.85 | 7.2 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,431.4 | 0.1 | 0.00 | 2.6 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 44.86 | -1.00 | -2.17 | 21.0 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 46.33 | -1.05 | -2.22 | 23.2 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1337.45 | -3.65 | -0.27 | 26.1 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 19.62 | -0.16 | -0.78 | 41.9 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.30 | – | 0.07 | -11.9 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.12 | – | -0.02 | 3.4 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.16 | – | 0.09 | -14.8 |
Click graph to enlarge
UK 100 Index called to open -35pts at 6875, as overnight weakness from 6900 results in a test of Friday’s 6880 lows. This confirms a bearish break from a 7-day rising channel and any foray towards 6870 could exacerbate the general downtrend from Thursday’s 6935 peak. New falling channel? The Bulls will be looking for any signs 6900 can be regained; the Bears hope to see 6860. Updated watch levels: Bullish 6895, Bearish 6870.
A negative opening call stems from a largely negative start to the week in Asia (-1%) with last week’s dovish policy inspired rally (Fed, BoJ) taking a pause for breath, although we note Australia’s ASX is holding its head just above water. Optimism continues to crumble about a deal to support oil prices this week, with it more likely to prove a warm-up for another meet in the weeks that follow. Oil may be off its late Friday lows, but has given up most of last week's gains.
A still strong JPY is hindering Japan’s Nikkei (and Topix) as last week’s BoJ policy update is digested as negative (less dovish) and the Fed is now expected to take a less aggressive path at policy normalisation. Australia's ASX is outperforming but not thanks to its beloved Miners/Oil, rather defensives like consumer staples, healthcare and telcos. Markets also perhaps a bit jittery ahead of tonight's US Presidential debates not knowing which Trump will turn up and how Hillary fares in front of her bitter rival.
US equities closed lower on Friday after weak performances from the Energy sector amid weak crude oil prices, not helped by a slide from tech giant Apple. The iPhone producer's share price declined by 1.7% coming after concerns about sales of its latest model, the iPhone 7, were reported.
Brent Crude is enjoying a slight rise in price this morning on the back of positive comments from the Algerian oil minister regarding a possible production freeze at this week’s informal OPEC meeting. However, US crude remains volatile since Friday when analyst hopes of a comprehensive production freeze deal fade and prices fell. Build up to this week’s meeting could once again see varying statements of intent from the oil ministries involved, increasing price volatility rather than sustaining price increases.
Gold, having failed to achieve a second breakout in less than a week after facing tough resistance around $1345 thanks to a strengthened USD, is continuing a sideways trend trading in a tight $1334-1340 narrowing channel (bearish descending triangle?). All eyes are now firmly set on tonight’s US Presidential debate for clues as to who the favoured candidate for the job is; a strong showing from Republican candidate Trump could see the precious metal price rally as investors predict a highly volatile economic climate under a Trump presidency.
In focus today will be the build up to this week’s unofficial OPEC-led production freeze meeting on the sidelines of the IEA forum in Algiers. Can a deal be cobbled together to support oil prices? Expectations are low in light of last week’s contradictory comments, with much willingness offset by just as much reluctance. Oil and exposed stocks could move.
Data-wise this morning, consensus is looking for minimal deviation for September for Germany’s IFO surveys. A Brexit-inspired cooling of the UK housing market is, however, likely to be blamed for another drop in BBA Home Loans, extending a 2016 decline to the lowest level since Feb 2015, something which could impact UK housebuilders and GBP.
In the afternoon, US New Home Sales are seen normalising in August after a surprise July jump and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity index is forecast still negative, although correcting back closer to breakeven after a weak August.
Speakers to listen out for, potentially moving markets during European hours, are ECB President Draghi as well as his colleagues Mersch, Coeure and Angeloni as well as the Fed’s Kashkari. After the European close the Fed’s Tarullo and Kaplan grace the wires along with the ECB’s Nowotny. All have potential to move the EUR/USD cross.
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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research