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Morning Report - 16 September 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets 208.1 14.5 7.5 40.4
Tesco 169.65 7.9 4.9 13.5
Informa 727.5 34.0 4.9 18.7
RSA Insurance 530.5 21.5 4.2 24.4
Coca-Cola HBC 1727 64.0 3.9 19.3
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Hargreaves Lansdown 1273 -71.0 -5.3 -15.5
Next 4957 -253.0 -4.9 -32.0
Marks & Spencer 313.4 -8.4 -2.6 -30.7
Royal Bank of Scotland 194.2 -3.2 -1.6 -35.7
Associated British Foods 2726 -33.0 -1.2 -18.4
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,730.3 57.0 0.85 7.8
UK 17,752.0 121.1 0.69 1.9
FR CAC 40 4,373.2 3.0 0.07 -5.7
DE DAX 30 10,431.2 52.8 0.51 -2.9
US DJ Industrial Average 30 18,212.5 177.8 0.99 4.5
US Nasdaq Composite 5,249.7 75.9 1.47 4.8
US S&P 500 2,147.3 21.5 1.01 5.1
JP Nikkei 225 16,512.1 107.1 0.65 -13.2
HK Hang Seng Index 50 23,335.6 Closed Closed 6.5
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,291.9 52.0 0.99 -0.1
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 43.64 -0.40 -0.91 17.7
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 46.33 -0.40 -0.85 23.2
Gold ($/oz) 1317.55 -2.65 -0.2 24.3
Silver ($/oz) 19.01 -0.04 -0.22 37.5
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.32 -0.06 -10.2
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.12 -0.06 3.5
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.18 0 -13.2
UK 100 called to open flat at 6730

UK 100 :

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open -5pts at 6725 after failure to overcome 6750 and challenge Monday’s highs brought it back below 6740. This coincides with intersecting falling resistance dating back to last Tuesday. The Bulls will be looking for a break above 6750 in the hope that 6800 is attainable. The Bears are hoping for another etrace towards recent lows of 6640. Updated watch levels: Bullish 6740, Bearish 6715.

Expectations for a mildly negative open come in spite of a positive Asian session overnight for those regional bourses not on holiday. This echoes Wall St gains fuelled by an Apple rally, an oil price finding support and investors dialling back worries about a Fed rate hike, not just next week but by year end. Nonetheless, sapping sentiment overnight is a $14bn US legal challenge against Deutsche Bank for mis-selling of mortgages adding to sector woes.

Australia’s ASX is outperforming thanks to a weaker USD giving a boost to commodities, Copper maintaining its breakout and Oil finding support for Energy names. Japan’s Nikkei is positive on hopes that more policy easing is on its way next week (rates even more negative?) to fire up growth and inflation. A weaker Yen is thus helping exporter stocks. China & Hong Kong closed.

US indices closed higher overnight led by Tech, most notably by a year-high close for Apple following reports of surging sales of the iPhone 7. Additionally, the subsiding of expectations of a rate hike by the Fed next week have left markets buoyed by the prospect of low rates until December.

Oil prices have found support after another slide as Libya and Nigeria resume exports alongside an another expected increase in US rig counts later today. The reversal of yesterday’s gains comes as a prominent hedge fund manager and predictor of 2014’s price plunge remains bullish on outlook for 2017, believing a fall in supply is possible. Don’t forget that OPEC-led meeting at month end.

Gold  is nearing two week lows following a breakdown of support as the chances of an interest rate rise by the Fed fade away. More soft data from the states, coupled with a lack of trading activity in Asia due to market holidays across the region, have pulled the price of the precious metal downwards.

After disappointing US data yesterday, in focus today will be US CPI inflation figures, with a slight increase on last month’s data predicted, but still nowhere near the Fed’s 2% target. This will likely merely add to investors reining in their expectations of a rate hike next week. US Consumer Confidence is seen rising a touch while the US Baker Hughes Rig Count could provide more clues about output and the global oil supply glut.

Note EU leaders meeting without the UK to discuss Brexit in Bratislava, which is certain to offer a soundbite or two about the UK not having its cake and eating it. However, with all that positive data of late, and BoE intervention having helped out, does the UK need to worry just yet?

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Acacia Mining Deploys Team to Fix Bulyanhulu Plant; Output Guidance Unchanged
  • Phoenix Group Mulls Acquisition of Deutsche Bank's Abbey Life Assurance
  • Inmarsat Successful $400m bond offering announced; Proceeds To Repay $107m Loan
  • BBA Aviation Sells ASIG to John Menzies for $202m
  • Unilever In Talks To Buy Alba's Honest -- WSJ
  • Gulf Keystone says open offer oversubscribed
  • Avanti Communications sees FY 2017 capex at $110m
  • Hollywood Bowl Group sets IPO offer price at 160 pence per share
  • Dechra Pharmaceuticals Australian Acquisition – Apex Laboratories for A$55m
  • Apple tax row raises $2.1 trillion question for FX traders

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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