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Morning Report - 9 September 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Micro Focus International PLC 2243 288.0 14.7 40.6
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA 422.1 16.1 4.0 -30.9
Dixons Carphone PLC 389 14.8 4.0 -22.2
easyJet PLC 1197 43.0 3.7 -31.2
Provident Financial PLC 3044 86.0 2.9 -9.6
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Pearson PLC 797 -66.5 -7.7 8.3
Mediclinic International PLC 964.5 -33.0 -3.3 -13.0
Burberry Group PLC 1285 -31.0 -2.4 7.5
Admiral Group PLC 2011 -48.0 -2.3 21.2
Rolls-Royce Group PLC 750 -17.0 -2.2 30.4
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,858.7 12.1 0.18 9.9
UK 18,193.0 132.9 0.74 4.4
FR CAC 40 4,542.2 -15.5 -0.34 -2.1
DE DAX 30 10,675.3 -77.7 -0.72 -0.6
US DJ Industrial Average 30 18,480.0 -46.3 -0.25 6.1
US Nasdaq Composite 5,259.5 -24.5 -0.46 5.0
US S&P 500 2,181.3 -4.9 -0.22 6.7
JP Nikkei 225 16,980.4 21.7 0.13 -10.8
HK Hang Seng Index 50 24,250.3 330.9 1.38 10.7
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,347.8 -38.0 -0.70 1.0
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 47.25 -0.03 -0.05 27.5
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 49.57 -0.21 -0.41 31.8
Gold ($/oz) 1341.65 0.45 0.03 26.5
Silver ($/oz) 19.66 0.01 0.06 42.2
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.33 0.16 -9.5
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.13 0.09 3.9
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.18 0.07 -12.9
UK 100 called to open -10pts at 6845

UK 100 : 7-day, hourly

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open -10pts at 6845, having traded sideways overnight but holding within a tight 6840-6860 range. While the breakout from August’s downtrend remains valid, the index and its traders remain undecided as to whether September’s uptrend or this week’s downtrend will prevail. Today’s finish into the weekend could well be key. The Bulls still want to breakout to 6880 to maintain the uptrend. The Bears want to re-test 6840 and 6820 to maintain downward pressure. Updated watch levels: Bullish 6865, Bearish 6840

A negative open comes as markets continue to digest disappointment that ECB President Draghi didn’t offer more. This likely stems from a combination of his hands being tied for now (things not markedly worse, but not better either) and wanting to see what peers do (BoE, BoJ, Fed) over the next couple of weeks. Another North Korean nuclear test also revived geopolitical concerns, dampening Asian optimism overnight and flowing into Europe’s final session of the week.

Asian equities are mixed with Japan’s Nikkei regaining poise following the North Korean news and despite a stronger Yen (safehaven seeking, USD weakened). China stocks are flat in the wake of inflation data showing a cooling in positive CPI but an improvement in PPI deflation (least since 2012). Australia’s  ASX is the regional underperfomer despite a weaker USD and oil price rally helping Miners and Energy but the heavy-weight financials proving too much of a ‘Dragh-i’ and home loans data disappointed.

Overnight, the Dow Jones finished the day’s trading slightly lower a, led by tech and consumer discretionary, although a late surge in oil following a huge drawdown of US EIA stocks helped Energy finish among a handful of positives.

Oil received an unexpected boost in price overnight as EIA oil inventories confirmed previous reports that US stockpiles declined by the largest amount since 1999. Hurricane Hermine and Labor day attributed to the drawdown of over 14m barrels, pushing  both Brent and US crude price up over $2 (roughly 4%) during the course of US trading to $49.99 and $47.62 respectively. However, reports of tankers carrying 19m barrels forming a steady queue in the Gulf of Mexico may see those gains reversed once port workers (having ditched the all-whites) begin to unload the backlog.

Gold, technically still in a September uptrend, is trading slightly lower today in response to yesterday’s lacklustre ECB conference, although it remains supported around the $1335 mark as the US Dollar shows signs of weakness in the lead up to the Fed’s monetary policy meeting later this month.

The Eurogroup meeting will be in focus today concentrating on progress with Greece's bailout, the quality of its public finances and evaluation of its budget plans. Speeches later from the Fed’s Rosengren and Kaplan may help to shed some new insight into the mind-set of the FOMC with regard to a potential September rate change. As always though, don’t expect a firm rhetoric as ever-varying US macroeconomic data contributes to yet more uncertainty.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • ICAP appoints Seth Johnson CEO of EBS BrokerTec
  • Greene King says LFL sales grew 1.7 pct in first 18 wks
  • Greene King Confident of Delivering Another Year of Progress
  • Dechra Pharmaceuticals gets FDA approval for first U.S. generic entrant antibiotic
  • Game Digital names John Jackson chairman designate
  • Sports Direct confirms plan to continue with share buyback
  • Hornby trading in line with internal expectations
  • Exillon says August avg daily production of 12,969 bbl/day
  • HP Enterprise's Spinoff Plan Is Big Boost to Micro Focus (WSJ)
  • Mediclinic Sees Low To Mid-Single Digit Rev Growth in Middle East
  • Derwent London Sells 75 Wells Street W1 Property for £40.9M
  • Wetherspoon Fiscal 2016 Pretax Profit Up 12.5% Wetherspoon (J D) PLC UK Share news

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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