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Morning Report - 7 September 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Berkeley Group Holdings (The) PLC 2783 93.0 3.5 -24.5
Mondi PLC 1602 43.0 2.8 20.1
Persimmon PLC 1870 32.0 1.7 -7.8
Barratt Developments PLC 507 8.6 1.7 -19.0
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA 398.9 6.6 1.7 -34.7
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Standard Chartered PLC 639 -19.5 -3.0 13.4
Lloyds Banking Group PLC 58.08 -1.6 -2.6 -20.5
Paddy Power Betfair PLC 8960 -225.0 -2.5 -1.3
HSBC Holdings PLC 568.5 -13.1 -2.3 6.0
Barclays PLC 169.7 -3.6 -2.1 -22.5
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,826.1 -53.4 -0.78 9.4
UK 18,003.4 -22.6 -0.13 3.3
FR CAC 40 4,530.0 -11.1 -0.24 -2.3
DE DAX 30 10,687.0 14.9 0.14 -0.5
US DJ Industrial Average 30 18,538.0 46.0 0.25 6.4
US Nasdaq Composite 5,275.9 26.0 0.50 5.4
US S&P 500 2,186.5 6.5 0.30 7.0
JP Nikkei 225 16,994.0 -87.5 -0.50 -10.7
HK Hang Seng Index 50 23,776.0 95.0 0.40 8.5
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,424.0 8.1 0.15 2.4
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 45.10 0.74 1.66 21.7
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 47.53 0.69 1.47 26.4
Gold ($/oz) 1356.55 2.75 0.2 27.9
Silver ($/oz) 20.10 0.00 -0.01 45.4
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.34 -0.03 -9.0
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.13 0.07 3.6
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.19 -0.09 -12.2
UK 100 called to open +22pts at 6844

UK 100 :

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open +18pts at 6836, currently at the bottom of an upward channel formed since yesterday's close. The Bulls will be looking for 6900 to be re-conquered to inspire hopes that recent 6940/6955 highs can be regained. The Bears, however, hope that 6900 remains resistance to send the index back towards 6,800. Updated watch levels: Bullish 6905, Bearish 6810.

Equity indices are expected to open higher after a poor manufacturing data in the US yesterday led investors to believe chances of a rate hike in September are now less likely. This comes despite Fed's Williams calling for a hike "sooner rather than later." The NASDAQ ended yesterday’s session at an all-time closing high of 5275, as US equity markets closed in positive territory after shrugging off weak data from the earlier part of the day. The most notable piece of weak data was the ISM Non-Manufacturing survey that fell to its lowest since January 2010.

Asian markets were also mixed (Shanghai +0.4% / Nikkei -0.7%) amid chances that the Fed will hike in September slimmed. Australian GDP adjusted on the quarter grew +0.5%, just short of forecasts of +0.6%, meanwhile, year on year was in line with forecasts at +3.3%. Australia’s performance of construction index slipped in August 46.6 from 51.6 in July. Elsewhere, New Zealand’s manufacturing activity volume for the second quarter rose +2.8% on the quarter, up from -0.7% previously. The SA q/q reading also ascended +2.2% from -2.0% previously.

Gold continues to benefit, despite the comments from San Francisco Fed Governor John Williams recommending a US interest rate rise, as Asian markets reacted to weak ISM non-manufacturing data. Prices broke the $1350 mark for the first time since mid-August as buyers fill their pockets predicting low interest rates to continue in the US. Expect the Fed Beige Book announcement later to prompt further reaction in the market.

Oil prices remain volatile, despite the September uptrend, as markets react with scepticism to any statement from Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iran regarding potential cooperation in the wake of the global supply glut. Analysts hope a reduction in Asian oil production this may help to reduce the glut as domestic oil imports increase.

In focus today will be Halifax house price data, with consensus expecting a slight decline in August, holding up better than in July when markets reacted negatively to the UK-EU referendum result. Whatever the data shows, it’s sure to impact the UK housebuilding sector, one which remains extremely popular and in recovery mode as the market collapse predicted by some fails to materialise.

UK Industrial and Manufacturing production will also be in the spotlight with potential to either support or counter last week’s strong PMI manufacturing, which along with a PMI Services surprise, has led many to proclaim a Brexit rebound is in the works.

Speakers of interest during the day include the BOE Governor Carney and several MPC colleagues ahead of next week’s UK monetary policy update, as well as the Fed’s Lacker and George, before the announcement of the latest assessment of the US economy via the Beige Book.

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Ashtead Q1 pretax profit 178 mln stg vs 155 mln stg year ago
  • Hargreaves Lansdown grows FY pretax profit by 10 pct, CEO to step down is Sept. 2017
  • CMC Markets says new clients up 19 pct for 5 months to Aug. 31
  • British housebuilder Barratt says sales rise post – Brexit
  • Sports Direct says Mike Ashley has no current intention to take company private, rejects chairman’s offer to step down
  • Vectura says raises expectations for 2016 revenue
  • Drugmaker Vectura raises revenue outlook on strong trading
  • Servelec H1 revenue falls 5 pct
  • Tata Motors says Jaguar Land Rover August retail sales up 26 pct
  • London copper hits two week top as U.S. data drags on dollar
  • Oil edges up, gains limited amid scepticism over freeze deal

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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