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Morning Report - 21 July 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
St James’s Place 898 39.0 4.5 -10.9
Legal & General 197.3 5.9 3.1 -26.3
Sage 697 20.5 3.0 15.5
Admiral 2103 58.0 2.8 26.8
Standard Chartered 617.5 15.7 2.6 9.5
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Anglo American 774.4 -39.2 -4.8 158.6
Fresnillo 1819 -58.0 -3.1 156.9
Randgold Resources 8710 -230.0 -2.6 110.2
BHP Billiton 926.4 -22.1 -2.3 21.9
Glencore 176.2 -3.7 -2.1 94.7
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,729.0 31.6 0.47 7.8
UK 17,019.0 112.6 0.67 -2.4
FR CAC 40 4,379.8 49.6 1.15 -5.6
DE DAX 30 10,142.0 160.8 1.61 -5.6
US DJ Industrial Average 30 18,595.0 36.0 0.19 6.7
US Nasdaq Composite 5,089.9 53.6 1.06 1.7
US S&P 500 2,173.0 9.2 0.43 6.3
JP Nikkei 225 16,800.5 118.6 0.71 -11.7
HK Hang Seng Index 50 22,085.7 203.2 0.93 0.8
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,512.9 24.2 0.44 4.1
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 46.09 0.32 0.69 24.3
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 47.55 0.42 0.89 26.5
Gold ($/oz) 1316.25 3.45 0.26 24.1
Silver ($/oz) 19.40 0.06 0.3 40.3
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.32 -0.24 -10.3
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.10 0.13 1.6
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.20 -0.35 -11.7
UK 100 Index called to open -20pts at 6710

UK 100 Index: 3 week

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open -20pts at 6710 but maintaining its July uptrend via rising support at 6700 overnight that could yet help engineer another attempt to re-test last week’s 6744 highs. The Bulls are ever hopeful that the highs can be beaten to keep those longer-term bullish patterns alive so last year's 7100 highs can be revisited. The Bears are watching for any signs of weakness around 6700 for hints that a reversal could finally be on the cards. Watch levels: Bullish 6725, Bearish 6690.

A negative opening call comes in spite of positive sessions for both the US and Asia with the former attaining fresh heights thanks to acceptable US macro data, a decent stateside earnings season thus far and investors pricing in continued support from central banks. And while the global rally continues, a little breather is perhaps due (and to be expected) ahead of the latest ECB policy update this afternoon.

Note a slight easing in USD strength helping metals prices and dual-listed Miners on Australia's ASX with additional help from an Oil price rebound helping Energy. Japan boosted by a weak Yen (6-week low vs USD) on hopes of more BoJ stimulus ($190bn?) and Nintendo shares being Pokémoned higher again.

US markets ended yesterday’s session higher again, with the tech-focussed Nasdaq outperforming, though the Dow and S&P posted fresh record closing highs too. Gains led by tech firms after Microsoft (MSFT) earnings beat expectations. Safe-haven sectors Utilities and Consumer goods were down, a further indication of improved risk sentiment.

The USD Basket has advanced above 97, putting pressure on Gold, which has fallen back below $1320 - that level now acting as resistance amid further improvements in risk hunger. Support for Gold around $1313 could engineer a bullish reversal, but if we break below that level then further declines through $1310 could be on the cards today.

Note Cable (GBP/USD) is strong this morning - heading back up towards its overnight high of 1.32756 on a less dovish tone from BoE rate setter Kristin Forbes. She’s said the central bank has time to consider how to battle the downside risks of Brexit, which are turning out to be not as catastrophic as previously thought. The BoE could well hold off on stimulus in August.

Crude futures have broken out above falling resistance after more drawdowns in US oil inventories satisfied bulls who’ve been lamenting a glut of distillates until now. While nothing’s changed there, further draws in crude stocks should indicate reduced flow through distilleries and a rebalancing of the market that way.

Today’s focus will be the European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest monetary policy update from which no change is anticipated but any hints/forward guidance will be much appreciated by markets regarding further stimulus being required in light of the UK’s Brexit vote.

With the BoE having held off this month saying it was too early to react to Brexit, its continental peer may well strike a similar tone today. However, it is struggling with its current €80bn/month QE programme fishing from an ever shrinking pool of available bonds as rallying prices depress yields, investors seeking security at any cost. All eyes still on you Mr Draghi. Still prepared to do whatever it takes?

Thereafter this morning watch out for UK Retail Sales growth for June seen falling back negative in June seen falling back negative, to levels seen in Feb/Mar as consumers shied away/deferred big ticket spending in the run-up to the referendum.

In the afternoon, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index will be looked to for clues about US economic growth sentiment. Note the index fell back negative again last month, to make it 9 out of the last 12 in the red. Its Philly Fed peer, however, is see edging up from last month’s rebound to make it two in a row positive for the first time since this time last year.

US House Prices are seen posting stronger growth in May, accelerating off 12-month lows while Existing Home Sales and the US CB Leading Index both ease in June.

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • SABMiller says Q1 group NPR grew by 2 pct
  • Hikma says US Court of Appeals upholds regulatory approval of colchicine
  • AstraZeneca says antibiotic zavicefta met main goals in late – stage trial
  • ABB Q2 profit in line, sees uncertain markets
  • ICAP says EBS Brokertec CEO to step down
  • Britvic says Q3 revenue of 346.3 mln stg, up 5.3 pct
  • Daily Mail group says Brexit vote sparking uncertainty
  • Monitise sees 2017 revenue below 2016 revenue
  • Unilever CFO stands by full – year forecast after Q2 beat
  • CMC Markets says incurred no losses through EU referendum volatility
  • Halma says Q1 revenue ahead of prior year
  • Hochschild raises FY production target by 6 pct
  • Howden Joinery says H1 pretax profit group 74.8 mln stg
  • Tate & Lyle Q1 profit ahead of last year
  • William Hill's Chief Executive James Henderson steps down
  • easyJet Q3 revenue lower, sees uncertainty ahead
  • Brexit uncertainty casts pall over rents, occupier demand, Land Securities warns
  • Unilever reports better – than – expected sales
  • Premier Foods says full – year forecasts unchanged
  • Danske Bank beats Q2 forecast, sees challenging markets after Brexit

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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