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Morning Report - 12 July 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Anglo American 808.9 63.9 8.6 170.1
Travis Perkins 1464 106.0 7.8 -25.8
Barratt Developments 402 28.8 7.7 -35.8
Persimmon 1521 101.0 7.1 -25.0
Taylor Wimpey 140.8 9.3 7.1 -30.7
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Rolls-Royce 724 -11.0 -1.5 25.9
Shire 4818 -23.0 -0.5 2.6
Smith & Nephew 1304 -6.0 -0.5 8.0
AstraZeneca 4556 -18.0 -0.4 -1.3
Severn Trent 2457 -6.0 -0.2 12.9
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,682.9 92.2 1.40 7.1
UK 16,706.4 528.7 3.27 -4.2
FR CAC 40 4,264.5 73.9 1.76 -8.0
DE DAX 30 9,833.4 203.8 2.12 -8.5
US DJ Industrial Average 30 18,227.0 80.3 0.44 4.6
US Nasdaq Composite 4,988.6 31.9 0.64 -0.4
US S&P 500 2,137.2 7.3 0.34 4.6
JP Nikkei 225 16,104.6 395.8 2.52 -15.4
HK Hang Seng Index 50 21,067.4 186.9 0.90 -3.9
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,363.1 26.0 0.49 1.3
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 44.84 -0.40 -0.88 21.0
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 46.39 -0.21 -0.45 23.4
Gold ($/oz) 1356.45 1.15 0.08 27.9
Silver ($/oz) 20.45 0.10 0.5 47.9
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.31 0.76 -11.2
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.11 0.25 2.0
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.18 0.51 -13.0
UK 100 called to open -10pts at 6672

UK 100 : 3-week, 15 mins

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open -10pts at 6670, having edged back from yesterday’s mid-afternoon flirt with 6700 to find support at 6660. The trend of rising support from Brexit-vote lows remains valid, keeping open the door for a breakout at 6700 that would take the current rebound beyond 17% and extend the Bull market from February lows to 22%. It would also give legs to two bullish patterns (3-week flag, 11-month inverse head & shoulders) that could usher us towards fresh all-time highs of 7100. Watch levels: Bullish 6705, Bearish 6645.

A mildly negative opening call comes in spite of the global rally extending overnight with another positive session in Asia and the US S&P500 making a fresh all-time highs. This after the UK looked set to curtail political uncertainty with a new PM by Wednesday evening, aluminium giant Alcoa fired the earnings season starting pistol with a welcome set of consensus-beating results and with investors bet on central banks prolonging loose policy/stimulus.

Japan’s Nikkei is getting a boost from a weaker Yen helping exporters with traders expecting the BoJ/Abe to loosen monetary/fiscal policy imminently while Australia’s ASX underperforms with oil price weakness offsetting buoyancy in metals, the latter failing to suffer too much from a stronger US dollar.

US markets continue to trend higher with risk sentiment improving (after the S&P made a new all- time high) and seemingly unaffected by people like the Fed’s Mester talking about potential rate hikes. Crude prices are on the back foot (though attempting a rally of sorts this morning) despite the uptick in market confidence as concerns surface about global demand - same old really where the black stuff is concerned.

Both Brent and WTI are in new, narrow falling channels and we have some API inventory data due out later on today, which could move things. Note also Saudi Arabia saying it really needs oil to be >$50 (having previously said pugnaciously that it could  survive an oil price of, like, free or whatever).

Gold is supported around $1351 - quiet since yesterday with a Japanese equity rally keeping Asian safe haven seekers at bay overnight. A break below support puts rising lows at $1343-$1345 on the table, while a bounce upwards and break of $1360 (and the 50-hour and 100-hour moving averages) could see further gains towards $1375.

In focus today, amid another very quiet session for macro-economic data updates will be US Small Business Optimism which is seen edging up very slightly in June. The same is true of US Wholesale Sales and Inventories in May with growth more tempered than in April, while JOLTS Job Openings will be looked to for more clues about the state of the US labour market. More or less jobs available?

On the speakers front we have a full line-up with BoE Governor Carney speaking about the minutes from the latest FPC Meeting minutes. This only two days ahead of the BoE’s much-anticipated policy decision (Thurs) at which it is widely expected we see a rate cut and/or more QE potentially coupled a revival of previously used schemes like Funding for Lending  to counter Brexit uncertainty.  In the afternoon, listen out for the Fed’s Tarullo, Bullard and Kashkari after Mester said a ‘gradual upward tilt in rates is appropriate for the US economy’.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Shell shelves Canada LNG Project
  • Amec Foster Wheeler Awarded Two North Sea Contracts
  • Grafton Group First Half Revenue Up; Well Placed
  • Dechra Pharmaceuticals FY Revenue +21%
  • PageGroup Saw Weaker June Due to EU Referendum Uncertainty
  • Galliford Try Non-Exec Chairman Steps Down; Sees FY16 Pretax Profit in Line with Views
  • Redefine International Expects Resilience After Brexit
  • Imperial Innovations Cell Medica acquires Delenex Therapeutics
  • Britain's ASOS sees full-year sales growth at upper end of guidance
  • Aegon gives update on divestment of its GBP 9 billion annuity portfolio in UK
  • PageGroup says UK hiring slowed ahead of Brexit vote
  • Premier Oil says 2016 production could exceed forecast as North Sea output rises
  • Page Group says Q2 gross profit +3.7%, says env't leading up to Brexit vote caused ‘slightly’ weaker June result
  • Purecircle says COO Jordi Ferre resigns
  • Hotel Chocolat says FY revenue up 12 pct to 92.6 mln stg
  • ITE Group says remains confident in outlook for current financial year
  • Anglo American Platinum sees H1 HEPS down 50 – 70 pct
  • Oil prices rise on Iraq loading worries; bearish investors cap gains
  • Shire says FDA approves Shire's Xiidra

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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