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| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Taylor Wimpey PLC | 131.5 | 9.4 | 7.7 | -35.3 |
| Berkeley Group Holdings (The) PLC | 2491 | 167.0 | 7.2 | -32.5 |
| Barratt Developments PLC | 373.2 | 24.1 | 6.9 | -40.4 |
| Royal Bank of Scotland Group (The) PLC | 168.8 | 10.2 | 6.4 | -44.1 |
| Persimmon PLC | 1420 | 83.0 | 6.2 | -30.0 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Fresnillo PLC | 1870 | -46.0 | -2.4 | 164.1 |
| Antofagasta PLC | 456.7 | -8.0 | -1.7 | -2.7 |
| Imperial Brands PLC | 4035.5 | -52.0 | -1.3 | 12.5 |
| Coca-Cola HBC AG | 1536 | -18.0 | -1.2 | 6.1 |
| British American Tobacco PLC | 4898 | -49.5 | -1.0 | 29.9 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 6,590.6 | 56.9 | 0.87 | 5.6 |
| UK | 16,177.8 | 279.0 | 1.75 | -7.2 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,190.7 | 72.8 | 1.77 | -9.6 |
| DE DAX 30 | 9,629.7 | 210.9 | 2.24 | -10.4 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 18,146.8 | 250.8 | 1.40 | 4.1 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 4,956.8 | 80.0 | 1.64 | -1.0 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,129.9 | 32.0 | 1.53 | 4.2 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 15,773.4 | 666.4 | 4.41 | -17.1 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 20,887.5 | 323.4 | 1.57 | -4.7 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,328.1 | 97.6 | 1.87 | 0.6 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 45.09 | -0.19 | -0.41 | 21.6 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 46.48 | -0.13 | -0.28 | 23.6 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1365.85 | -1.55 | -0.11 | 28.8 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 20.49 | 0.14 | 0.7 | 48.3 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.30 | – | 0.04 | -12.1 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.10 | – | -0.05 | 1.7 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.17 | – | 0.1 | -13.5 |
Click graph to enlarge
UK 100 called to open +55pts at 6645, with an overnight rally seeing the index break above early July 6630 highs to extend the post-Brexit rebound to 16%. For the bulls, the break higher increases the chances that long-term 11-month bullish inverse head & shoulders pattern is still valid for a retest of last-year’s all-time highs of 7100. The Bears will be watching for any weakness back towards 6600 for hints that the index has gone too far. Watch levels: Bullish 6665, Bearish 6620.
A positive opening call comes thanks to Asian equities following their stateside cousins higher in the wake of a US jobs report regarded as a goldilocks update - not too hot that it could trigger an imminent Fed rate hike; not too cold that it spooks about US economic weakness - visible via a flat USD Basket. US bourses making headway towards all-time highs has served to boost bullish sentiment globally whilst the jobs report has helped rate-sensitive Gold maintain its northerly climb.
Japan’s Nikkei is outperforming after the ruling party gains full political control (fiscal stimulus more certain?) after winning yesterday's Upper House election. A weaker Yen is also helping on account of the USD Basket holding up around recent highs and in spite of weak macro data. Australia's ASX is higher thanks to is election deadlock being resolved and commodities benefiting Miners via from improved risk appetite, even if Oil remains weak to the detriment of Energy names. China stocks underperforming with no weaker renminbi benefit due to a flat USD.
US equities enjoyed gains on Friday following the NFP print which was strong, although when you take the average over June and May you simply get the long term average of ~150K. So not much has actually changed. Weakness in GBP is still translating into USD strength, which will make it hard for the Fed to raise US interest rates anytime soon to boot.
Crude prices have settled into a new range after making that 2-month low last Thursday on a smaller than expected draw in US inventories. Note Barclays is now bearish on the commodity over the next 6 months with a potential economic downturn post-Brexit vote risking seeing those storage tanks filling up once more.
Gold, having danced a pretty little jig on Friday, made a high of $1375 over the weekend and has since retraced much of that move. Support is currently at the 24 June high of $1358, with pressure from above likely this week in the form of a potential BoE rate cut and its stimulatory effect on UK equity markets. Note an even weaker GBP as a result is likely to make life tricky for US Fed hawks too.
In focus today, a very quiet day for macro-economic data with that goldilocks US Jobs report now behind us, will be US Labour market Conditions this afternoon, consensus looking for a rebound to flat in July after a weak June.
On the speakers front listen out for what ECB President Draghi and colleague Coeure have to say ahead to the Eurogroup meeting of finance ministers. Thereafter, much attention will be paid to what the Fed’s George (FOMC voter) thinks about US monetary policy after Friday’s jobs report rebound and with external uncertainties like Brexit still raging. This just days ahead of widely expected stimulus from the Bank of England’s Carney on Thursday. Rate cut? More QE? Both?
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