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| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Lloyds Banking | 65.05 | 3.7 | 6.0 | -11.0 |
| Standard Chartered | 526.2 | 27.5 | 5.5 | -6.7 |
| TUI | 1006 | 45.5 | 4.7 | -16.9 |
| Barclays | 165.75 | 7.3 | 4.6 | -24.3 |
| Taylor Wimpey | 176 | 7.5 | 4.5 | -13.3 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Randgold Resources | 6610 | -315.0 | -4.6 | 59.6 |
| Unilever | 3069 | -37.0 | -1.2 | 4.9 |
| Shire | 3956 | -43.0 | -1.1 | -15.8 |
| GlaxoSmithKline | 1387.5 | -11.5 | -0.8 | 1.1 |
| Diageo | 1770 | -13.5 | -0.8 | -4.7 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 6,021.1 | 70.6 | 1.19 | -3.5 |
| UK | 16,422.0 | 390.0 | 2.43 | -5.8 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,193.8 | 40.8 | 0.98 | -9.6 |
| DE DAX 30 | 9,631.4 | 80.9 | 0.85 | -10.4 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 17,675.3 | -57.8 | -0.33 | 1.4 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 4,800.3 | -44.6 | -0.92 | -4.1 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,071.2 | -6.8 | -0.33 | 1.3 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 15,986.3 | 386.7 | 2.48 | -16.0 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 20,430.7 | 260.7 | 1.29 | -6.8 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,249.6 | 86.9 | 1.68 | -0.9 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 48.45 | 1.18 | 2.5 | 30.7 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 49.61 | 1.24 | 2.56 | 32.0 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1286.55 | -15.05 | -1.16 | 21.3 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 17.37 | -0.15 | -0.87 | 25.6 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.46 | – | 1.46 | -1.1 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.14 | – | 0.72 | 4.6 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.28 | – | 0.68 | -5.5 |
Click graph to enlarge
UK 100 called to open +175pts at 6175, having gapped up from the 5900-6050 range of last week to regain the 6050-6300 sideways range of May. Bears like the look of an overnight test of 6200 which keeps open the possibility that we push on to re-test 6300. The Bears are hoping for a retrace back to 2-month intersecting support at 6100, noting a 4-hourly RSI already overbought. Watch levels: Bullish 6210, Bearish 6155.
A positive European open comes as weekend Brexit polls (and bookies' odds) suggest the Remain campaign regaining some lost ground and in some cases re-taken the lead ahead of Thursday’s UK referendum vote on EU membership. A higher chance of the UK voting to stay is a relief for markets (equities and the pound sterling) that had been preparing themselves for a Leave vote and the uncertainty it could inflict from both a financial, economic and political standpoint.
A surge in GBP is helping Asian markets to outperform Friday’s positive US close. Note Japan’s Nikkei over 2% to the good as GBP strength translates to JPY weakness, helping its many currency-sensitive exporters. Down under, Australia’s ASX is getting a boost from financials rallying on reduced contagion fears from a Brexit, as well as higher commodity prices - notably oil - as a result of a weaker US dollar, itself the likely hindrance of Chinese equity weakness overnight via a higher renminbi fix by the PBOC.
Oil prices remain on a charge from their recent lows with US Crude at $48.5 and Brent Crude close to challenging the $50 mark again. The main driver is US Dollar weakness as well as renewed hopes that a UK vote to stay in the European union will help maintain gradual global economic recovery and eventual rebalancing of the oil market.
Gold is holding up above $1280 buoyed by the currency benefit of a weaker USD which is offsetting reduced safehaven demand as markets tone down their fears of a Brexit vote. Note potential for further polls suggesting the Remain camp in the lead to send the yellow metal back towards $1200.
In focus today and this week will be the continued build up and run-in to Thursday’s UK referendum on EU membership. With some weekend polls suggesting that the Remain campaign has retaken the lead, note more polls expected during today’s trading session (ICM, Opinium) as well as over the next few days. And the strong opening call for equities this morning shows the power these have to sway market sentiment.
Data is once again very limited today with only Eurozone Construction Output mid-morning. There is no consensus expectations as to what April will deliver following March’s return to negative following a strong Jan and Feb, taking it back to the contraction that dogged it for much of 2014-15. A rebound or a worsening?
In terms a of speakers, listen out for the ECB’s Mersch talking about ‘Monetary Policy in the euro area; scope, principles and limits’ mid-afternoon before the latest update on how much the European Central Bank (EVB) shelled out last week as part of its Quantitative Easing (QE) stimulus programme. After the European close the Fed’s Kashkari gives opening remarks at a ‘too big to fail’ forum in Washington.
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