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Morning Report - 17 June 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Randgold Resources Ltd 6925 315.0 4.8 67.2
Fresnillo PLC 1233 21.0 1.7 74.2
BP PLC 364.85 5.4 1.5 3.1
Glencore PLC 138.45 1.9 1.4 53.0
British American Tobacco PLC 4145.5 45.5 1.1 9.9
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Ashtead Group PLC 960 -38.0 -3.8 -14.2
Mediclinic International PLC 853 -32.5 -3.7 -23.0
Severn Trent PLC 2124 -67.0 -3.1 -2.4
Anglo American PLC 612.4 -18.6 -3.0 104.5
Lloyds Banking Group PLC 61.36 -1.6 -2.6 -16.0
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 5,950.5 -16.3 -0.27 -4.7
UK 16,032.0 -266.3 -1.63 -8.0
FR CAC 40 4,153.0 -18.6 -0.45 -10.4
DE DAX 30 9,550.5 -56.2 -0.59 -11.1
US DJ Industrial Average 30 17,733.0 92.8 0.53 1.8
US Nasdaq Composite 4,844.9 10.0 0.21 -3.2
US S&P 500 2,078.0 6.5 0.31 1.7
JP Nikkei 225 15,617.1 182.9 1.19 -18.0
HK Hang Seng Index 50 20,146.4 108.0 0.54 -8.1
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,163.8 17.8 0.35 -2.5
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 46.63 0.13 0.28 25.8
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 47.83 0.27 0.56 27.2
Gold ($/oz) 1285.85 0.75 0.06 21.3
Silver ($/oz) 17.32 0.04 0.22 25.3
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.43 -0.3 -3.3
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.12 -0.2 3.6
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.27 -0.15 -6.6
UK 100 Index called to open +30pts at 5980

UK 100 : 1-month chart

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open +30pts at 5980, with yesterday's late bounce from 5900 resulting in a strong rally back to 6015 overnight. However, failure to get back above Monday’s lows and deliver a breakout, and after falling back below 6000 this morning, suggests we may simply retrace to the lows, officially putting the index in a 5900-6000 sideways channel. And still in a June downtrend. The bulls will be looking to overcome 6000 to get out of the channel. The Bears want another pullback to 5900 support. Watch levels: Bullish 6025, Bearish 5970.

A positive European open follows gains in both the US and Asia that can be attributed to diminished fears of a UK exit from the European Union (Brexit). This after campaigning was suspended by both sides following the callous murder of mother, humanitarian, MP and ‘Stronger in Europe’ campaigner Jo Cox. The assumption is that the tragic event will sway the undecided to vote Remain and possibly even reverse some of the Leave momentum seen in recent polls.

Asian stocks are rebounding from 3-week lows with Japan's Nikkei benefiting from a strong Yen coming off its highs and Oil snapped a 6-day streak of losses to give the Energy space a boost. A slightly weaker USD is giving the commodities space a lift, thanks to UK Sterling (GBP) rallying from its lows on reduced Brexit fears, with a positive knock-on for Australia's ASX index. Markets also still digesting that more bearish Fed outlook.

Note Gold losing its shine, back below $1300  despite a weaker USD, after the odds of a Brexit vote fell. This has reduced market fears about the political, economic and market knock-on from a 'Leave' outcome after what had become an increasingly acrimonious referendum debate.

In focus today will undoubtedly be the fallout from yesterday’s tragic and senseless murder of young UK Member of Parliament and ‘Britain stronger in Europe’ campaigner Jo Cox which has shocked the nation and lead to the understandable suspension of referendum campaigning by both sides.

Elsewhere, amid a conspicuously light macro line-up, will be Eurozone Labour Costs at 10am. This is for their potential read across to inflationary pressures within the region and ability to help usher it out of a deflationary quagmire. Can gains of 1.3% in Q4 be repeated? Speaker today include the IMF’s Lagarde, the ECB’s Coeure and ECB President Draghi.

Thereafter, data is limited to US Housing Starts and Permits, with the data offering hints about consumer confidence in US economic recovery. While Starts may be forecast -1.9% in May, it does come on the back of a strong +6.6% in April. And Permits are still seen delivering positive growth of 1.3%, albeit at a slower pace than April’s 4.9%.

As usual the week closes with the latest US Baker Hughes Rig Count which may show a continued bottoming out and turnaround as land-based stateside operators are attracted back to the game by higher oil prices ($50). Prices still not enough to encourage more of the expensive offshore activity. Although watch the 10% falls in oil prices and bucking of the uptrend unravelling the recovery.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Wood Group Buys EESL's Aberdeen Fabrication, Manufacturing Business
  • Tesco to Sell Dobbies Garden Centres for £217m
  • Brexit Would Put EU Drug Regulator's Headquarters in Play
  • HSBC to Pay $1.58 Billion to Settle Shareholder Suit -- Update
  • BHP May Spend Up to $2B on Anglo American Coal Mines
  • Credit Suisse Sees Sense in Exxon, BHP Oil Asset Sale

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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