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Morning Report - 14 June 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Fresnillo 1233 19.0 1.6 74.2
Royal Bank of Scotland 216.1 2.2 1.0 -28.4
Inmarsat 710.5 7.0 1.0 -37.5
Randgold Resources 6670 45.0 0.7 61.0
Rio Tinto 1951.5 9.5 0.5 -1.4
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Lloyds Banking 64.23 -2.8 -4.2 -12.1
Sky 891.5 -34.0 -3.7 -19.8
Hargreaves Lansdown 1231 -37.0 -2.9 -18.3
Standard Chartered 500.9 -15.0 -2.9 -11.1
Schroders 2478 -74.0 -2.9 -16.7
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,045.0 -70.8 -1.16 -3.2
UK 16,574.3 -253.2 -1.50 -4.9
FR CAC 40 4,227.0 -79.7 -1.85 -8.8
DE DAX 30 9,657.4 -177.2 -1.80 -10.1
US DJ Industrial Average 30 17,732.5 -132.8 -0.74 1.8
US Nasdaq Composite 4,848.4 -46.1 -0.94 -3.2
US S&P 500 2,079.1 -17.0 -0.81 1.7
JP Nikkei 225 15,837.5 -181.7 -1.13 -16.8
HK Hang Seng Index 50 20,497.3 -15.7 -0.08 -6.5
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,210.1 -102.5 -1.93 -1.6
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 48.43 -0.80 -1.62 30.7
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 49.95 -0.74 -1.45 32.9
Gold ($/oz) 1282.65 -2.85 -0.22 21.0
Silver ($/oz) 17.32 -0.12 -0.7 25.3
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.42 -0.24 -3.8
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.13 -0.02 3.9
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.26 -0.21 -7.5
UK 100 Index called to open -25pts at 6020

UK 100 Index: 4-month

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open -25pts at 6020, which is up off overnight lows (just) but still under considerable pressure after breaching key 6050 support late yesterday. Note, however, next level support 6005 yet to be tested which may tempt bulls if we can get back above 6050. The Bears are waiting for 6005 March lows support to give way for a revisit of 5900. Note daily RSI approaching oversold, but not quite there yet, and it still requires a fall into the zone and recovery from it before an index recovery can be hoped for. Watch levels: Bullish 6055, Bearish 5995.

The negative market open comes with another down day for Asia, building on US losses as markets continue to fret about Global growth (China) and the prospect of a UK exit from the EU, with the latest polls suggesting the Leave campaign in the lead. Note the UK’s widely read Sun newspaper nailing such colours to its mast. Markets dislike uncertainty and so the outcome of Fed, BoJ and BoE policy meetings this week is also weighing even if nothing special is expected. Then again, we’ve come to expect the unexpected.

Japan’s Nikkei down again as safe haven seeking continues to see the Yen benefit to the displeasure of exporters and frustration of the Bank of Japan while upwardly revised Industrial Production growth is providing little help even if it counters weak industrial prints yesterday.

Note Australia’s ASX underperforming after a long weekend and playing negative catch-up with global bourses as the commodities and Energy space - notably oil - back below $50 - remains under the cosh. Chinese stocks are posting a slight rebound after yesterday’s weakness ahead of the MSCI review about their inclusion in its widely used Emerging Markets index.

US markets closed down with the Dow Jones down triple digits after the latest Brexit polls suggested a heightened prospect of a UK Exit from the EU, the VIX Volatility index spiked to its highest since end-February and commodities and tech weighed after Microsoft (MSFT) fell on its bid for $26bn deal to buy LinkedIn (LNKD).

Oil under pressure from Global growth fears and a strong USD ahead of US stockpile data. While safe haven Gold is off its best levels, note Silver (which often lags its cousin) is holding up around its rebound higher despite the USD dollar basket holding above 94 level.

In focus today will be May Spanish Consumer Inflation at the European open, seen up off its April negative lows, but confirmed still remaining in deflation territory, not far off its worst levels and thus still weighing on the Eurozone, making sure to keep ECB President Draghi’s job interesting near term.

Thereafter UK May CPI is seen improving which will bolster that very strong April Industrial and Manufacturing Production figures we had last week while GBP remains under pressure due to Brexit worries. Note Eurozone Industrial Production seen rebounding strongly in April with annual growth getting up off near flat to regain something closer to the 12-month average.

In the afternoon, with US Small Business Optimism seen flat in May, the US data of interest is Import Prices forecast stronger in May, but weaker annually. Consensus expects a slowing in Retail Sales growth in May, along with Business Inventories - all adding to questions about the US economy as the Fed FOMC kicks off its June meeting before updating us on policy on Wednesday evening.

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Oil futures fall as global growth, Brexit concerns weigh
  • Retailer Ted Baker revenue up on online growth, new stores
  • IGas Energy maintains full – year production guidance
  • Betting odds indicate 59% chance of ‘In’ ahead of UK's EU vote – Betfair
  • Britain's Crest Nicholson sees H1 rise in demand for homes despite EU referendum
  • Ashtead to buy back shares worth up to $284m
  • Workspace to sell remaining properties in Blackrock Workspace JV
  • Gulf Keystone says standstill agreement with holders of notes and bonds extended
  • Premier Farnell says Q1 revenue at 247.2 mln stg vs 240.5 mln stg last yr
  • Daetwyler agrees $1 billion deal to buy Premier Farnell
  • Go – Ahead says on track to meet FY expectations
  • Abzena Full year results: revenues up 74%, strong outlook within growing market
  • Direct Line says Solvency II internal model approved by the PRA
  • Firstgroup sees significant growth in cash generation in coming year
  • Kairos Minerals announces rights issue
  • Intertek to Provide Inspection Services to the Jemena Northern Gas Pipeline Development

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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