Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open flat at 6190 (ex-div -6.4pts), having failed overnight to re-conquer 6200 and resuming its falling channel from recent 6290 highs. This opens up the possibility that the current correction makes a re-test of yesterday’s 6150 lows and maybe even drops back further towards the 6050 floor of that very familiar May sideways channel. Only a decisive break above 6200 could re-awaken the bulls. Watch levels: Bullish 6210, Bearish 6170.

The muted start comes after another down day in Asia which contrasts with a positive US close as unwelcome Yen strength (blame a weaker US dollar, alternative safe haven seeking, delayed sales tax rise and absent details on fiscal stimulus) weighs on Nikkei exporters. Markets are also displaying typical apprehension given the busy line-up for risk events today: ECB and OPEC meetings, plus key data and speakers.

Note Australia’s ASX dented by a stronger Aussie dollar (weaker US dollar, smaller trade deficit) as well as commodities remaining under pressure with oil stifled ahead of OPEC and that weak PMI Manufacturing print from China having rekindled global growth fears. Heightened Brexit fears are also weighing in terms of geopolitical risk with volatility protection for sterling at its highest level since Feb 2009 after that ICM poll suggesting the Leave camp pulling ahead.

US markets came back from early losses to finish marginally higher, helped a little by buoyant oil prices ahead of today’s OPEC summit in Vienna. Index volumes in the US will have been lighter this week in the run-up to Friday’s monthly (now rather tedious) jobs report, and as such we’d expect that trend to continue today.

Note yesterday’s US data prints were actually pretty good, net-net (Manufacturing PMI, ISM and Prices Paid all beating forecasts). In the interests of balance, note also that Mortgage applications and construction spending missed. But who cares anyway - tomorrow’s jobs report will probably be all that matters after the Fed’s Beige Book set us up nicely for a load of US rate-hike nattering to see us out of this week and into next.

It should be a quiet day for crude oil while OPEC has its meeting in Vienna. Note that talk of a new output ceiling was swiftly cut down by Iran yesterday and there’s not much, other than talking about output ceilings, that the cartel can do to move prices these days. Again, we say concentrate on signs of improving risk appetite, such as weakness in traditional safe havens like Gold.

Speaking of which, Gold could be set for just that in early trading with the 30-min chart indicating a bearish rising wedge pattern that could see some initial downside this morning, despite a weaker USD. This could therefore be a positive catalyst for equity markets and see oil prices supported at least.

In focus today will be the ECB update and Draghi press conference this afternoon as well as soundbites from OPEC's semi-annual meeting. No changes expected in terms of monetary policy or oil supply, respectively, but markets always keen for updated  rhetoric and fresh forward guidance. OPEC may not be a central bank but it can also issue forward guidance and markets remain extremely sensitive to the oil price.

Ahead of the ECB’s afternoon update note Eurozone Producer Prices inflation data mid-morning seen easing in April but still deflationary on an annual basis. This is important with the central bank apparently in a position to raise its inflation forecasts after a near doubling in oil price, even if downside risks persist and it stands ready to offer more stimulus should it be required.

Thereafter, with the monthly US Jobs report looming tomorrow, the ADP Employment change figure will be looked to as the usual warm-up act. An improvement is forecast ahead of what should prove another goldilocks report tomorrow, positive enough to suggest the US economy is recovering but not so good that it puts additional pressure on the Fed to hike rates.

After an awful run regional manufacturing data it would be no surprise to see the ISM New York print deliver a fall in May, echoing what we have seen in other regional surveys. With OPEC in-play, oil still knocking at $50/barrel and following a big drawdown last week, watch out for US weekly Oil stocks. Consensus is forecasting another draw. This is at odds with an API build this week but they don't always mirror eachother and are notoriously volatile.

Speaker-wise, listen out for what Eurogroup head Dijsselbloem has to say as well as the Fed’s Powell who - like his boss -  sees a rate hike being appropriate ‘fairly soon if data underpin forecasts for an improving economy’. His colleague Kaplan is also up after the European close. With hype increasing daily and after being criticised for his recent Brexit assessment it will be interesting to hear what Bank of England Governor Carney has to say before UK PM Cameron speaks on the issue late this evening.

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

• GSK to file 3 – in – 1 lung drug for U.S. approval this year, accelerates filing of COPD triple – therapy drug
• Fastjet says expects to remain cash flow negative in 2016
• Johnson Matthey sees 2016/17 improvement after restructuring, FY underlying pretax profit down 5 pct
• RPC says FY revenue from cont ops up 34 pct to 1.64 bln stg
• Wizz Air May passengers up 21.8 pct
• Gulf Keystone says $7 mln payment received from Kurdistan regional govt
• Ryanair traffic rises 12 pct in May, load factor up 2 points
• AstraZeneca licenses Zurampic to Grünenthal in Europe and Latin America
• Oil prices tread water ahead of OPEC meeting, OPEC seen unlikely to agree output restraint
• London copper drifts on lack of demand drivers, softer dollar supports
• Glencore to close Tahmoor coal mine in Australia by early 2019